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"Mexico's oil production is in decline. There's probably no way to stop it," said Mike Rodgers, an expert at one of the top oil industry consulting firms, PFC Energy in Houston. Mexico is the second largest supplier of oil to the United States (about 1.5-million barrels a day). But output from its major fields is dwindling fast, according to official figures from the state-owned oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). The country's known oil reserves will run out in nine years, the government says, potentially undermining the nation's oil-dependent budget.
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Mexican output peaked at just over 3.4-million barrels a day in 2004. "I don't believe we'll ever see it that high again, no matter how much is invested," said David Shields, an oil industry consultant in Mexico City. Daily output at Mexico's biggest oil field, Cantarell, highlights the problem. Production there dropped by a staggering half a million barrels in the last 18 months, to 1.5-million barrels from 2-million. Once the world's second-biggest oil field, it is expected to continue losing production, down to as little as 600,000 barrels a day by 2013
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Pemex's lack of access to foreign financing and technology has left it hamstrung as it looks around for new fields. Pemex has said it can offset declines at Cantarell with new production from other fields. While several sites, onshore and offshore, have potential, it would take a decade of massive investment to bring them on stream, analysts say. "They really don't have a way to fix the problem," says Rodgers. "They could have if they had used some foresight. Now it's virtually impossible."
In his recent state of the union speech, Mexican President Felipe Calderon mentioned the nation's dwindling reserves. "Our petroleum reserves have been reducing constantly. It has to be said," he said, as if broaching a taboo subject.
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http://www.sptimes.com/2007/09/24/Worldandnation/Analysts_watch__wince.shtml