A new blog devoted to the "net oil export" problem

[GliderGuider]

http://netoilexports.blogspot.com/

Here's their opening shot:


Global exports are down 5% since late 2005.

How loudly do we need to say this? Estamos tan jodidos!

[4dsc]

1. What's up with that trend line??

I see that net exports are headed down... Couple that with a peak in production and we have ourselves a mess..

Learning to live with less oil is going to be interesting for future generations..

[GliderGuider]

2. Speaking of trend lines, have a look at this

From the data on the original graph, plotted from Jan. 2002, with a second order polynomial trend line going out to the end of 2009. The R-squared value shows that the curve fit is scary good. Projecting the trend shows a loss of 10 MB/day in exports from now until the end of 2009. That's a drop of 26% over 2.5 years, with a decline of 14% in 2009, and of course steepening after that.

I don't even need to eat these chicken entrails to feel sick - just reading them is enough.

[GliderGuider]

3. One additional comment

I extrapolated the curve out a bit further. If that curve were to hold, the world's net oil exports would drop to 0 in 2013...

Crap, that's only 6 years from now.

Of course, if that curve even holds for another 3 years, we'll lose 50% of our net exports. At that point all bets are off as geopolitics begins to go seriously sideways.

If this curve holds until the end of the year, it will time to think "duck and cover" in 2008 or early 2009.

[pscot]

4. I've been watching this approaching train wreck

for the last 30 years, to the vast amusement of family and friends, who have patted me on the head and assured me there was nothing to worry about, since even if I was right, there was still plenty of time and "they" would "come up with something". The public remains clueless, but the financial markets are starting to get it. When this penetrates to the level of Lou Dobbs, Oprah, and The View, pandemonium is going to break loose. There will be hoarding, shortages and gas lines for sure, followed by some form of rationing. Your chart indicates the we're about a year away from these initial effects. The rush to electric cars will increase demand for coal and nuclear electricity generation, and stress the grid to the point of meltddown. Life is going to get a lot more interesting.

[4dsc]

8. "they will think of something"

What amazes me the most, about any discussion about peak oil, is the belief that most people have the subject.. I think the one that tops the list is your thoughts here in that "they will think of something" before the going get to rough for us.. I also counter by asking WHO are THEY and WHY exactly do THEY have to do anything or can THEY do anything about peaking oil.. Most people are not thinking outside the box here and are relying upon sound bits they have heard but not put much thought into the message.. The public is indeed clueless..

[AlecBGreen]

5. a graph showing longer historical trends would be helpful

what did exports look like over the last 50 years? Is this just a hiccup or the top of a long dropoff?

[GliderGuider]

6. I I find such data I'll crunch the numbers.

However, the number of nations that have slipped from "net exporter" to "net importer" status , especially since 1970, hints strongly that we're at the peak. There is no question in my mind of this being a hiccup. I know of no evidence from either the curve-fitting crowd or the bottom-up boys that would support such a conclusion. Whether the initial decline follows the fitted curve or some other, and what effect geopolitical unravelling may have on the shape of the downslope really isn't the important question.

We're there, it's here. From now on things are going to happen Faster Than Expected™.

[AlecBGreen]

7. no arguments here

time to dust off the bicycle & the garden hoe :)