WSJ: Wrong Number on Peak Oil Story?

[bananas]

http://blogs.wsj.com/energy/2007/10/23/wrong-number-on-peak-oil/

October 23, 2007, 3:11 pm
Wrong Number on Peak Oil Story?
Posted by Mark Gongloff

Energy Roundup and other blogs got a lot of mileage yesterday out of a Guardian story about a new report from a German think tank, the Energy Watch Group, that asserts global oil production has already peaked and will be cut in half by the year 2030.

One number from the Guardian story that struck some commenters as particularly alarming/unbelievable was the assertion that EWG expected oil production to start falling by 7% a year. We’re not so good with the maths here at ER, so we’re relying on others to figure this out for us, but according to something called the Rule of 72, such a rate of decline would mean production will be cut in half in just 10 years, according to the Odograph blogger and others, including some number-crunching ER commenters yesterday.

According to Odograph, this Oil Drum commenter and some ER readers, the real rate of decline necessary in order to cut production in half by 2030 — the EWG report’s stated prediction — is about 3%. That’s still an alarming rate of decline, but not quite as jaw-dropping as 7%. In fact, the EWG report doesn’t mention a 7% rate of decline at all. In other words, it seems the Guardian may have goofed in reporting that 7% number (and we compounded the error by repeating it yesterday). Or there could be a perfectly reasonable explanation for it. ER hasn’t been able to reach anybody at the Guardian for guidance, but will update as soon as we find something out.

[Mojorabbit]

1. Let's hope

it was a mistake or we are in big trouble.

[Vogon_Glory]

2. Even if The Guardian Is Wrong, Wingnut Cornucopians Will Say

Even if the Guardian is wrong and oil production begins declining by only three percent a year instead of seven percent, right-wingnut cornucopians will pop up and say that the Guardian's error thus invalidates the central point of the original article, that the world is probably nearing or just past peak oil production and that "commies" and "greenies" to the contrary, there is still plenty of oil left, provided, of course, that the "commie-libs" shut up.

[tom_paine]

5. Naaaah. Bushie cornucopians go much futher in their paid-for lies

http://www.energybulletin.net/2423.html

Oil for everyone! Oil refilling Ghawhar and the North Sea AS WE SPEAK!

As if such a global coruncopia wouldn't have been conclusively and massively demonstrated by now, if "abiotic oil" was refilling our fields at a rate which might be useful to humanity.

:silly: :silly:

[Traditional Liberal]

3. She is running for Tx Governor shortly

So she wants to make sure she services all those Texas oil men, so they will write her campaign checks when she is done.

[NMDemDist2]

4. huh?

:wtf: