If Things Don't Go Well, Carve A Bigger Stone Head - Interesting Oil Drum Thread On System Collapse

[hatrack]

EDIT

Now that the networking effects have been discussed, I would like to push the analogy a bit further and look at how this plays out from a Peak Oil perspective. Several years ago, sweet light crude oil started getting a bit more difficult to obtain. In response, we stopped talking about “oil” and started talking about “liquids”. The word “liquids” covers Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), ethanol, heavy oils, tar sands, and an increasing number of other oil-substitutes. Essentially the part of the network called “Sweet Light Crude” turned red, so we started connecting the "Oil Network" to other networks.

We connected oil to the “food” network by turning food into ethanol. Actually food was already connected because you need oil to make food in the modern world, but now the circle is complete – previously we used oil to create food, and now we use food (corn, sugar, palm oil, etc) to create oil (or oil-substitutes). Adding LNG and CTL (Coal-To-Liquid) to the network connects oil to other energy sources. As this connection strengthens and load starts to be applied, a shortage of any of these sources would have an impact in each of the other sources. To some extent, this has already started to occur.

Adding tar sands and various other oil substitutes to the network has made a surprising connection between the environment and oil. This connection takes many forms, but the most interesting lies in the fact that oil substitutes are less efficient than light sweet crude – much more CO2 is produced for any given amount of work done. This connection is emerging, and could have interesting repercussions. The problem applies to virtually all the oil-substitutes, so the widespread adoption of substitutes (particularly CTL and tar sands) might cause an environmental disaster which in turn would suppress ethanol production and create knock-on effects in other parts of the network.

The financial system has an important role to play in this network. If energy, food and the environment can be considered 3 portions of the network, then our financial system can be considered to be both a form of network monitoring, and the communication medium that the network uses to pass signals around. Consider the financial system to be similar to the blue cable running out the back of your computer. Your computer’s blue cable isn’t likely to run hot, but our finance system is a network of networks, and it is glowing red. In addition to monitoring and communication, the financial system provides support for maintenance and upgrades of the energy systems, so capacity in the financial system is critical. When one part of the network develops a problem (say production of LNG suddenly drops), then messages get sent via the financial system (in the form of increased prices), and the other parts of the system accept the load, if they can, by increasing production. When compared to an Internet Protocol network there are many faults in this system. High latency leads to slow responses. Poor monitoring leads to conflicting signals or a failure to detect faults. Bad messages are often not corrected, leading to incorrect responses, and so on.

EDIT

http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3377#more

[Xipe Totec]

1. It's not like we didn't see it coming

Real oil experts sounded the alarm four years ago:

The Coming Energy Crisis? (Oil Industry warned of Iraq war consequences)

As submitted to Oil & Gas Journal for publication February 3, 2003

All warning signs that existed prior to the energy crises of 1973 and 1979 exist today. Various energy security measures indicate that the potential for an energy shortage is high.

Various measures of US energy security indicate that the US might be heading for an energy crisis. Many of the warning signs that existed before the energy crises of 1973 and 1979 exist today and they indicate that the current situation could be even worse. US dependence on petroleum imports has grown steadily for over a decade and has been at record levels for several years. Petroleum inventories are low and the ability of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and commercial petroleum stocks to cope with an interruption in imports matches the historic lows preceding the 1973 and 1979 energy crises.

The potential for an energy crisis has never been higher. Oil prices have recently exceeded $30 per barrel and they may continue to increase. The disruption of Venezuelan oil supplies has increased the US dependence on Middle Eastern oil and made the US more susceptible to supply interruption. With the crisis in Venezuela, the capacity of OPEC to meet any additional supply interruption is limited and a war with Iraq would put OPEC at its limit. Any energy crisis in the near future will hinder President Bush’s efforts to stimulate the economy through tax cuts and other fiscal measures. An energy crisis could cause a recession, inflation, and higher unemployment.

http://www.wtrg.com/EnergyCrisis/index.html


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x77290

[kestrel91316]

2. There's a train wreck a comin' down them tracks..........

Sung in my best fake Tennessee drawl........

[Dead_Parrot]

3. Got to k&r, just for the title... nt

[gristy]

4. I'm devouring the thread at that link

Thanks for that, and your OP gets a K&R

[gristy]

6. finished that link

fascinating

[patch1234]

5. 'liquids', does not include LNG

natural gas liquids, does not include methane.
LNG is methane in a liquid state.

natural gas liquids, consists of stuff like propane,
(which comes out of the ground, often from a 'gas' well.)
which is a liquid when under pressure

[tom_paine]

7. This is an excllent article, but whew, some of this just goes flying over my head!

I like it, because it makes me look shit up. But man, because this isn't my field nor have I studied it it very much before starting to come down to the E/E Forum regularly, it makes my head hurt trying to get through it.

:dunce:

Why the hell is the dunce smiley smiling? Shouldn't it have a slack-jawed, confused look, as I have right now?

[Extend a Hand]

8. K&R

[GliderGuider]

9. This is one of the more significant articles on TOD recently

People are starting to realize that our civilization can be modeled as a strongly-coupled, maximally efficient, maximally loaded network. For anyone who has been involved in electrical or electronic network engineering that should be a frightening realization. This article and the subsequent discussion contain crucial insights into the potential for cascading failure modes and their potential timelines.

I'm becoming even more pessimistic (if that's even possible). Given the state of the financial portion of the "network of civilization", it's entirely possible that the collapse will begin this year.

K&R