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TexasBushwhacker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 06:29 PM
Original message
National Geographic "Tapped Out"
I realize I'm preaching to the choir here, but still this is a really good article:

"In 2000 a Saudi oil geologist named Sadad I. Al Husseini made a startling discovery. Husseini, then head of exploration and production for the state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, had long been skeptical of the oil industry's upbeat forecasts for future production. Since the mid-1990s he had been studying data from the 250 or so major oil fields that produce most of the world's oil. He looked at how much crude remained in each one and how rapidly it was being depleted, then added all the new fields that oil companies hoped to bring on line in coming decades. When he tallied the numbers, Husseini says he realized that many oil experts "were either misreading the global reserves and oil-production data or obfuscating it."

Where mainstream forecasts showed output rising steadily each year in a great upward curve that kept up with global demand, Husseini's calculations showed output leveling off, starting as early as 2004. Just as alarming, this production plateau would last 15 years at best, after which the output of conventional oil would begin "a gradual but irreversible decline."

The article is written by Paul Roberts, author of "The End of Oil". His new book is out this summer. It's called "The End of Food". :scared:
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cutlassmama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 06:34 PM
Response to Original message
1. Hopefully people will start using hydrogen fuel cell cars
to take care of this problem. Honda just came out with one.
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. It will take much more than that. Cutting red meat consumption would
Edited on Sat May-24-08 06:47 PM by Lorien
help, as it takes nine times the energy to produce calories from beef as it does to produce the same amount of calories from plants.Also, creating huge solar farms could produce most of our home and business energy needs, if only the political will existed:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0506/p03s05-usgn.html

Arizona's solar aspirations in peril

The Christian Science Monitor

Tuesday 06 May 2008

The state aims to tap its 325 sunny days a year, but loss of an energy tax credit threatens its big plans.

Phoenix - The sun shines 325 days a year in Arizona, on average, and some here see that as the state's biggest energy asset.

But fledgling efforts to turn Arizona into the solar capital of the world depend on making the initial investment in new energy plants affordable - something that could become much more difficult, perhaps even impossible, if a federal tax credit for solar projects expires at the end of the year as scheduled.

Arizona is by no means the leader in developing renewable energies, but it has made progress. The latest achievement is at the Phoenix Convention Center, where workers are nearly finished installing 732 peel-and-stick photovoltaic solar panels on the two-acre roof of the center's West Building. The $850,000 project is the largest solar application in downtown Phoenix and is expected to generate 150 kilowatts of power yearly.

"We have a tremendous solar energy resource, up to seven or eight solar productive hours a day," says Ardeth Barnhart, associate director of the Arizona Research Institute for Solar Energy (AzRISE) at the University of Arizona in Tucson. "Other states like New Jersey have very progressive policies, but we've got more sun. We could theoretically power the US with a very large stretch of land - about 100 square miles - in Arizona."

But plans for a project that could put Arizona on the map as a solar powerhouse - a huge $1 billion solar energy plant to be built near Gila Bend, Ariz., by 2011 - are likely to be scrapped if the tax credit is allowed to lapse. That's because solar power is still more expensive to produce than is electricity derived from fossil fuel, though some experts expect the gap to close in the next seven to 10 years.

The subsidy in question is the federal Investment Tax Credit. The US government boosted the ITC from 10 percent to 30 percent for solar systems in 2006, meaning that 30 percent of the cost of building and installing a system is returned to the investor in the form of a tax credit. But that rate is set to expire at the end of 2008. That scenario worries many political, business, and academic leaders here, who see their dreams of a solar-energy hub evaporating.

"The extension of the tax credit is critical," says US Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) of Arizona in a phone interview. "I've introduced legislation to extend it to 2016."

Representative Giffords is urging that the government pay for the extension by reducing tax credits to oil and gas companies. During "the next five years, are slated to receive about $17 billion. That money instead should be going toward renewable energy," she says. "It is critical, and I believe Democrats and Republicans acknowledge it."

The Arizona Public Service Co., the utility that is the driving force behind plans for the Gila Bend solar plant, already owns smaller solar plants. This yet-to-be-built one, called Solana (Spanish for "sunny place"), would cover three square miles with trough mirrors and receiver pipes and would include two 140-megawatt steam generators. It would provide enough energy to power 70,000 Arizona homes, according to Barbara Lockwood, an APS official.

Arizona law now requires utilities to invest in renewable energy. Currently, 90 percent of the state's electricity is produced by natural gas and coal.

"They have to generate 15 percent of electricity from renewable-energy sources by 2025," says Govindasamy TamizhMani, director of the photovoltaic testing lab at Arizona State University. "So all the utility companies are trying to meet that mandate."

Giffords, who ran for Congress in 2006 on a platform of pursuing solar energy, recently led a group of lawmakers and experts from Arizona on a fact-finding trip to Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, home of North America's largest operational solar photovoltaic system. The $100 million, 14-megawatt plant is an example of what might be done at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base near Tucson, says the freshman lawmaker.

"What's so exciting about solar energy is that it creates an elegant solution to three of the largest challenges that ... face our country today," says Giffords. The first, she says, is US dependence on foreign energy. The second is global warming, and the third is advances in technology.

Those advances in technology, she argues, could help America lead the world in this field.

"I'm very concerned that America is falling behind. Pursuing solar energy, cleaner-burning energy, renewable energy can absolutely lead to economic prosperity," says Gifford.

Many in the solar energy field say the rising price of oil, and the possibility of a future tax on carbon emissions, is likely to make the solar option more competitive - and soon.

"People are looking at some kind of cost parity, some comparable costs in the next seven to 10 years," says Ms. Barnhart of AzRISE.

ASU's Dr. TamizhMani agrees. "At the moment, the industry depends on incentive money, but by 2015 the cost of conventional electricity and solar are expected to be equal."

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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Where does most hydrogen in the US come from?
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gristy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 07:35 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. natural gas
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TexasBushwhacker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. I'm working on getting fit enough to ride a bike to work
Granted I have a long way to go (fitness wise), but I'm only 7 miles from work and we have showers there, so it is possible. There are already people who do it.
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gristy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Oh, yeah. Just open up some more hydrogen mines!
:D
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. Frankly, this is not much of a solution. There are 250 million cars in the US alone.
I really don't see how 50 hydrogen toys are going to make a difference.
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 09:00 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Well fuel cells are going to be good storing energy from local systems
But for cars I feel they are useless. When you got EEstor about to start supplying ZENN cars and lockheed it is obvious that electric cars are going to dominate. Not dangerous and expensive fuel cells.
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 09:42 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. I have no idea what you're talking about. Cars are NOT going to dominate.
They are a disaster.

They are distributed energy.

Distributed energy is a disaster because of the obvious redundancies, extreme mass inefficiency, and the creation of point source pollutants.

Frankly the car was designed by marketing types in the early 20th century to "free" the world from "railroad robber barons." Even today, they market cars as "freedom."

Freedom from what?

Decency?

Wisdom?

Responsibility?

The car should have been pushed to an early grave. Regrettably, like junkies dying of AIDS amd a shit load of other diseases, mostly our concern is to find new ways to get junk.

It's bizarre.
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. As long as there is a highway system there will be cars...
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IrateCitizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. BWAAAAHHHHHAAAAAHHHHAAAA!!!!
As long as there is a highway system there will be cars...

OMFG! That takes the cake. :rofl:

How 'bout we just keep building airports, because as long as their are airports there will be planes, right?

Or instead why don't we just jump into outer space, because I'm sure if we build a launching pad in every town and city then everybody will surely have a space shuttle in their backyard.

This is not "Field of Dreams." Just because it has been built does not mean they will come.
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IrateCitizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #1
13. How, exactly, would H2 cars "take care of this problem"?
Simply hoping for technological "solutions" is not a substitute for qualitative analysis. Hydrogen is not an energy source but instead is a portable form of power produced through other energy inputs.

How, exactly, do you plan on providing the electrolysis necessary to convert water to hydrogen for our cars? If you plan on using the electrical grid, how do you propose we upgrade our current D+ system (that's what the American Society of Civil Engineers rated it)? If you plan on using natural gas, how do you plan to deal with a peak production of it since demand will go through the roof to maintain our lifestyle of easy motoring?

Platitudes may make you feel better, but they do not solve any of these problems. They only serve as cover for denial or bargaining.
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bhikkhu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 09:05 PM
Response to Original message
9. Thanks, I hadn't read about Husseini's work
It sounds like the same method as TOD's Megaprojects analysis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects , which is all current, as far as available data allows.
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pscot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
11. Obfuscation has long been one of my favorite words
It never goes out of style.
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 10:42 AM
Response to Original message
15. Two basic things need to be solved...
when fossil fuels become "gone with the wind", we will still need to figure out how to smelt metal without the use of fossil fuels and create lubricants without fossil fuels. If we can achieve both, then we will be okay.

If not, I shutter to think what the future will hold.
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