OPEC Predicts 2005 Plunge In Oil Demand But Won't Say Why

[hatrack]

"World oil demand may fall sharply in the second quarter of 2005 and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may take action in anticipation of such a decline, OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said.

"There have been developments (that suggest) that during the second quarter of 2005, demand for oil will plunge," Yusgiantoro said without elaborating. "Therefore there's a need to think about this and the steps to be taken," he added.

He said OPEC will discuss its policy for 2005 at its upcoming meeting in Cairo on Dec 10. The meeting will also discuss OPEC's current price range for its benchmark basket of crude oils of USD22-28 per barrel, he said."

EDIT

http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=1056507;s=rollingnews.htm

[ewagner]

1. Plunge?

With China demanding oil at an increasing rate? With American demands remaing steady or increasing?

:wtf:

[hatrack]

3. Political cover would be my guess

So they'll have a reason to either (a) cut production or limit production increases or (b) alter their currency requirements - or both.

[ewagner]

6. Probably to cut production

so prices remain high....create an artificial shortage in 2Q 2005?

[htuttle]

4. Collapse of US economy?

After China kicks our T-Bill legs out from under us?

[MikeG]

2. The beginning of the planned extermination of millions by the BFEE?

[martinolich]

7. ..What's the BFEE?

[phantom power]

8. Bush Family Evil Empire.

Coined here: http://www.bartcop.com

[displacedtexan]

5. Because regular folks won't be able to afford it?

Hm.

Public transportation sounds better and better.

[AmandaRuth]

9. because the Saudis and the neocons know something

we don't? This is extremely interesting.

[Deb]

10. Russia building a pipeline to Japan?

I think Japan is one of OPEC's big buyers. Hmmm...

[hunter]

11. George W. "Casey Jones" Bush is gonna wreck this train.

We won't need no stinkin' oil in that Promised Land.

Casey Jones

Words by Robert Hunter; music by Jerry Garcia

This old engine
makes it on time
Leaves Central Station
at a quarter to nine
Hits River Junction
at seventeen to
at a quarter to ten
you know it's trav'lin again

Drivin' that train
High on cocaine
Casey Jones you better
watch your speed
Trouble ahead
Trouble behind
and you know that notion
just crossed my mind

Trouble ahead
The Lady in Red
Take my advice
you be better off dead
Switchman sleepin
Train hundred and two
is on the wrong track and
headed for you

Drivin' that train
High on cocaine
Casey Jones you better
watch your speed
Trouble ahead
Trouble behind
and you know that notion
just crossed my mind

Trouble with you is
The trouble with me
Got two good eyes
but we still don't see
Come round the bend
You know it's the end
The fireman screams and
The engine just gleams

Drivin' that train
High on cocaine
Casey Jones you better
watch your speed
Trouble ahead
Trouble behind
and you know that notion
just crossed my mind

[fedsron2us]

12. I think those off shore West African fields

are due to come on line in 2005. Non OPEC production is estimated to add 1.3 million barrels a day to supply.

http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_leuffer/leuffer200411300840.asp

If there is any drop off in demand due to a cooling of the world economy
or increased energy efficiency then oil prices could be in for a period of weakness.

[hunter]

13. I'll bet you ten Euros it won't be "off shore West African fields."

But if you want to play for bottle caps, I'll bet you ten dollars.

[happyslug]

14. Cover for a PRODUCTION PLUNGE?

I believe it was Matt Simmons of ASPO (Web Cite:http://www.peakoil.net/) who stated that he believes Saudi Arabia's Biggest oil field will water out early next year. When that does 10% of world wide oil production goes with it. So production quota may just be a way for OPEC to save face and claim it is still in control of the price of oil. The real situation will be the price will be set by those people who STOP using it after the price gets so high. I predict $5.00 a gallon.

Alternative Reason: Some Economist (The Arabs do have them also) may have calculated that the US Dollar will drop drastically by the second Quarter and given that drop price of oil in the US will be $5.00 a gallon if OPEC tries to keep the price to Europe stable. This will reveal to the world that OPEC is setting the price of Oil in Euros not Dollars, and further the decline of the US Dollar.

Either way we in the US are looking at $5.00 a gallon gasoline. I come up with $5.00 for minimum wage workers can no longer, pay their rent (if they are in Public Housing), feed themselves, AND PAY FOR GASOLINE FOR THEIR AUTOMOBILE at $5.00 a gallon. Such mini mun wage employees will have to stop buying Gasoline and that act will drop demand.

Notice the issue is when a sizable part of the US driving public stop buying gasoline. That will drop demand, but remember that drop will reflect such minimum wage employees will NO LONGER BE WORKING.

Matthews Simons Speech on this subject:
http://www.energybulletin.net/1264.html