In honour of a bet graciously lost

[GliderGuider]

Three years ago I made a bet with Nederland on whether oil would be over or under $70 a barrel on August 31, 2008. On that day oil closed over $115. I won, and to settle the bet Nederland graciously contributed the price of a barrel of oil to DU.

Yesterday, just 6 weeks later, the price of oil settled at $69.85 on Nymex. This was thanks more to the recession we're entering than to any particular failure of Peak Oil theory, but it pointed out very clearly that the price of oil is multi-factorial.

In recognition of the fact that if the recession had come on just a bit faster I'd have had egg all over my face, and also in recognition of my mistake in tying the price of oil too tightly to the geological nature of Peak Oil, I have contributed $69.85 to DU. In the language of the accelerating global financial catastrophe I made myself a counterparty to the original bet, hedging it to DU's benefit.

Nederland, you were more right than I was willing to admit at the time.

[mike_c]

1. best post of the day....

Recommended!

[Suich]

2. Great post!

K & R!

[depakid]

3. Volatility

Probably requires a thousand words to one to grasp, and a magnitude higher to attempt to explain- even with the aid of powerful computers.

Humility, thoughtfulness and integrity on the other hand- those are immeasurable, qualities, yet are more universally understood.

And shine brightest when put to the test.

:thumbsup:

[Dead_Parrot]

4. Bloody speculators

This is all your fault, you know.

;)
:thumbsup:

[machI]

5. Kick