Hybrids vs. Hydrogen: Which Future Is Brighter? (ABC News)

[Dover]

Scientists Argue Hybrids Make More Sense Than Hydrogen Cars

Nov. 29, 2004 — Thirsty? Imagine bending down to your car tailpipe and taking a big slurp.

Hydrogen-powered vehicles could make that possible (though you'd probably prefer to get your drinking water elsewhere). Unlike gasoline-driven combustion engines, the hydrogen fuel cell generates power not by burning, but through a chemical reaction in which hydrogen and oxygen are converted into energy with water as the only byproduct. It's not just clean, as a fuel source, hydrogen offers nearly three times the energy of gasoline since it burns hotter and faster.

"The things that matter here are energy security, climate change and air pollution," said David Keith of the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. "Focusing on fuel-cell cars makes no economic sense for any of these goals."

President Bush declared in his 2003 State of the Union address that he aimed to have hydrogen-powered cars on the road in significant numbers by 2020 and pledged $1.2 billion in federal money for the effort. The energy department followed up this year by including $318 million for both fuel cells and hydrogen production in its 2005 budget.

Thinkers like Jeremy Rifkin of the Foundation on Economic Trends argue that adopting a hydrogen-fueled economy could not only lead to cleaner skies, but also liberate the country from its dependence on foreign oil and make energy more accessible to the masses. This is because each hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle contains the parts to essentially be a portable power plant. This means that when not in motion, cars could be hooked up to help power outside units.

"In the new hydrogen fuel-cell era, even the automobile itself is a 'power station on wheels' with a generating capacity of 20 kilowatts," he wrote in his book, "The Hydrogen Economy: The Creation of the Worldwide Energy Web and the Redistribution of Power on Earth."...cont'd

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Hybrid/story?id=266883&page=1

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Batteries, Parts Delay Hybrid Car Production

By PAUL ENG

Dec. 3, 2004 — The good news: The rising price of gasoline in the United States has made American car shoppers sit up and take notice of fuel-efficient hybrid gas-electric autos. The bad news: Carmakers still can't keep up with the demand.

For example, Toyota recently announced that it would double production of its Prius hybrid to meet the rapid spike in U.S. consumer demand. But even with approximately 50,000 more Priuses headed for American shores next year, Toyota admits that shoppers will still need a lot of patience.

We've got a wait list of about 21,000 to 22,000 Prius buyers," says Sam Butto, a spokesman for Toyota's U.S. sales division. "The wait times are running about six months on average, so if you were to order a Prius now, you won't get it until April or May — perhaps a little sooner than that as the increased production comes on line."


But it isn't just Prius shoppers who are waiting in line.

Ford began selling its long awaited Escape Hybrid SUV in November. And while company officials have noted tens of thousands of consumers have expressed interest in the fuel-efficient sport utility vehicle, it will still be a few months before most U.S. dealerships get even a single demonstration model. What's more, while conventionally powered Escape SUVs are one of Ford's more popular vehicle models, the company expects it will be able to produce only 20,000 hybrid versions by the end of next year.

Parts of the Problem

With demand and interest so high among fuel-conscious consumers, why can't carmakers produce enough to meet demand? One of the chief reasons is a limited supply of hybrid parts such as the rechargeable batteries and the computers that control the cars' dual electric and gas-powered motors....cont'd



http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Hybrid/story?id=295317&page=1

[Viking12]

1. Certainly for the next several decades, hybrids.

From the National Academy of Sciences, "The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs"

http://books.nap.edu/catalog/10922.html

[hatrack]

2. And hydrogen's putative "inevitability" (whenever that is) . . .

. . . is going to depend on somebody finding some way of upending most of thermodynamics. Not surprisingly, that's going to be rather, uh, difficult.

[phantom power]

3. a hydrogen economy is no problem, thermodynamically.

It's straightforward enough to generate H2, using energy input from solar and wind (which is also solar).

The drawbacks have more to do with economics and safety. H2 is not very safe to transport and store. And the vehicles that run on H2 are expensive.

[hatrack]

4. Hydroelectricity would also work - that's not the heart of the problem

However, the number of dams and damsites is limited, and cannot approach the amount of electricity that would be needed for electrolytic separation of hydrogen from water. Hydro only supplies about 7-8% of US power generation (I think - please correct if wrong, but that's not the main point anyway.

Turning more immediately to your supposition re. solar and wind, ask yourself this simple question: including the energy needed to extract and process materials for cells/wind turbines, the energy needed to manufacture, transport and install these machines, and the energy needed for replacement parts and repairs, will the energy released from the hydrogen they produce exceed the energy necessary to build and maintain these systems. The answer is no.

Given that, hydrogen cannot be seen as an energy source. It serves to transport energy, but always at a net loss, and as such cannot replace oil as both fuel and feedstock.

I'm not saying that hydrogen won't have a place in the future energy picture. I'm just saying that it is not going to be nearly as important as some futurists would have us believe, and it will certainly never "replace" oil as so many glossy magazine ads insist on stating.

[Squeech]

5. Disagree

Granted that it takes energy (and other resources) to manufacture a photovoltaic panel, once you have it in place it's going to produce electricity for many years. What maintenance does it need? You have to sweep the dust off it occasionally, and maybe replace the wiring. Performance does degrade over time, but I expect the real reason you want to replace a 20 year old photovoltaic is that the new ones do a better job, producing more usable power from a given sunbeam.

That said, I expect to see more ethanol than hydrogen, especially on the farm-- easier to make (especially out of agricultural waste) and to store.

[phantom power]

6. Yes, exactly. H2 is a fuel, not an energy source.

There's nothing wrong with that. In fact, any post-oil economy is going to work like that. There will be energy sources (renewables, or nuclear), and there will be fuels. I think the big debate needs to be over what fuels we will use.

[hatrack]

7. Exactly - it's not going to be any single solution

I think that's what gets lost in some of the hydrogen hype.

Future energy policy will, as it does today, involve a variety of fuels and sources. There's not going to be some single wondrous technological panacea as oil diminishes.