Why The Future Is Hybrid - The Economist

[hatrack]

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The success of the Prius has taken Toyota by surprise. The average wait at American dealerships is currently six months, even though the company increased its sales target for North America from its initial estimate of 36,000 units to 47,000 for 2004. To meet demand, Toyota announced another increase in August, saying it would push monthly global production up next year by 50% to 15,000 cars, and double its allotment for America to 100,000 units. While that number is still only one-quarter of last year's sales for America's most popular Toyota model, the Camry, it shows that consumers are willing to pay a premium for clean, environmentally friendly cars—as long as there is no need to compromise on performance. Other carmakers are scurrying to catch up. CSM Worldwide, an automotive research firm, reckons that at least 20 new hybrid models will appear in America by 2007. Besides this year's new Ford Escape and Honda Accord hybrids, Toyota will add two sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) to its hybrid line-up early next year. DaimlerChrysler recently announced that it will introduce a Mercedes hybrid within the next five years, and Porsche is considering a hybrid version of its Cayenne SUV. Even General Motors, one of the strongest proponents of hydrogen fuel-cell cars, has jumped on the hybrid bandwagon with two pick-up trucks, a sedan and several SUVs to follow. Thanks to the convergence of geopolitics, technology and fashion, hybrids are picking up speed.

While the arrival of mass-produced hybrids is new, the idea itself is not. Indeed, it dates back to early automotive history when cars powered by electric motors, steam or internal-combustion engines all accounted for significant shares of the market. Why hybrids failed then is best illustrated by the example of an American engineer named H. Piper, who filed a patent for a petrol-electric hybrid vehicle in 1905. His idea was to use an electric motor to assist an internal-combustion engine, enabling it to achieve a thrilling 40kph (25mph). Unfortunately for Mr Piper, petrol-powered internal-combustion engines achieved those speeds on their own just a few years later, undermining the more complex and expensive hybrid approach. Petrol engines soon ruled the roost.

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Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles promise to be the cleanest mode of transportation, eliminating harmful tailpipe emissions altogether. But despite much publicity, and the fact that most carmakers are working on the technology, fuel-cell cars will not appear in significant quantities any time soon. America's National Academy of Sciences, which advises the government on new technologies, recently estimated that the transition to a “hydrogen economy” will probably take decades, since many challenges remain—in particular, how to produce, store and distribute hydrogen in sufficient quantities.

Hybrid cars, however, offer many of the benefits of fuel-cell vehicles, with the huge advantage that they are available now. Moreover, as the success of the Prius shows, people will actually buy them. The beauty of petrol-electric hybrids is that they do not require any changes in driver behaviour or the fuel-delivery infrastructure. Rather than being mere stepping-stones on the way to the hydrogen cars of the future, petrol-electric hybrids are likely to be around for years, if not decades, to come. When and if fuel-cell cars become available down the road, they may not replace hybrids, but instead are likely to be descended from them, since they require many of the same components, from control systems to motors. As Joseph Romm, director of the Centre for Energy & Climate Solutions, a non-profit organisation based in Arlington, Virginia, puts it, “hybrids are almost certainly the platform from which all future clean vehicles will evolve.”

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[cliss]

1. Nice. Thanks for posting, H.

I for one would be willing to pay a little extra, endure a few hassles, to be part of the solution to our dependence on foreign oil. This is a situation that is spiraling out of control. We need to be proactive about dealing with these issues.

Was it Einstein who said, "the people who got us into this mess will not be the ones who will get us out. It has got to be someone else".

I believe that someone will have to be us. We simply cannot wit for the policymakers to come up with solutions because they are part of the problem. They're owned by the oil companies and the car manufacturers. They are simply unable to solve this problem.

[midnight armadillo]

2. Does anyone maintain a list of expected hybrids?

The ones I know of coming out include: Toyota HIghlander & Lexus RX330, NIssan Altima (licensed Toyota drivetrain), Chevy malibu ("mild hybrid"), Ford Five Hundred. Rumored are the Toyota Sienna and Subaru roadster concept.

Any others? Someone must keep a nice list somewhere.