Growth in US oil consumption to slow significantly

[jpak]

http://www.energyrisk.com/public/showPage.html?page=832318

The latest Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast virtually no growth in 2009 US oil consumption for the first time in more than 20 years.

AEO 2009 projects liquid fuel demand will grow by 1 million barrels per day between 2007 and 2030. In addition, the increased use of domestically-produced biofuels and rising domestic oil production spurred by higher prices will mean the net import share of total liquids supplied (including biofuels) will decline by 58% in 2007 to below 40% in 2025. It will then increase to 41% in 2030.

According to the AEO 2009 reference case, the average real price of crude oil will be $130 per barrel in 2007 dollars ($189 in nominal dollars). Oil prices will rise as the global economy rebounds and global demand will once again grow more rapidly than non-OPEC liquids supply, the report predicted.

Coal, oil and natural gas will meet 79% of total US primary energy supply requirements by 2030, down from an 85% share in 2007. The report forecast that consumption of renewable fuels - wood, municipal waste, and biomass in the end use sectors; hydroelectricity, geothermal, municipal waste, biomass, solar, and wind for electric power generation; ethanol for gasoline blending; and biomass-based diesel - will grow by 3.3% per year to 2030. This will be due to the US Energy Independence and Security Act 2007 renewable fuel standard and a strong increase in the use of renewables for electricity generation spurred by renewable portfolio standards for generators in many US states.

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