Arctic melt 20 years ahead of climate models

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http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16307-arctic-melt-20-years-ahead-of-climate-models.html

Arctic melt 20 years ahead of climate models

13:59 19 December 2008 by Devin Powell

Though scientists tend to agree that summer ice at the North Pole will eventually disappear, they haven't settled on a date. And one group now claims to have evidence that Santa may have to start swimming much sooner than we thought.

US researchers claim to have found evidence that accelerated melting has crossed a http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19526173.900-climate-tipping-points-loom-large.html">"tipping point" from which there is no going back.

The amount of http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19926673.400-arctic-ice-continues-to-thin.html">summer ice at the North Pole has steadily declined since 1979, according to satellite images. Computer models predict that this trend will continue, leaving the Arctic completely http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13779-north-pole-could-be-ice-free-in-2008.html">ice-free during the summers as early as 2030.

In 2007, though, the ice surprised everyone by contracting far more rapidly than the models predicted. A particularly warm summer left only 4.28 million square kilometres by September - a record 23% below the previous minimum.

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