BBC: Antarctic glacier 'thinning fast'

[NickB79]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8200680.stm

"One of the largest glaciers in Antarctica is thinning four times faster than it was 10 years ago, according to research seen by the BBC.

A study of satellite measurements of Pine Island glacier in west Antarctica reveals the surface of the ice is now dropping at a rate of up to 16m a year.

Since 1994, the glacier has lowered by as much as 90m, which has serious implications for sea-level rise."

snip

"Calculations based on the rate of melting 15 years ago had suggested the glacier would last for 600 years. But the new data points to a lifespan for the vast ice stream of only another 100 years."


---------------


It's funny, but I seem to recall arguing with people that the slight increase in overall AREA of sea ice in Antarctica may not be telling the whole story of what is really happening there with regard to global warming.

[Birthmark]

1. You'd think the denialists would get tired of being wrong.

But they appear to have stamina, I'll give them that. Unfortunately for them, and all of us, the facts don't support them. AGW is THE single most important issue that human civilization has faced.

Frankly, I don't think civilization is going to make it.

[GliderGuider]

2. No civilization ever has "made it".

If by "make it" we mean "Survive in perpetuity with its original organizing myth intact." The ones that didn't have Growth as a core element of their existential narrative were subsumed by those that did, and those that did follow the path of Growth either outran their resources, collapsed due to the diminishing marginal return on complexity (thanks, Tainter) or were subsumed by those that did it better.

There is no reason to think that ours will not succumb to some variant of that process. At this point I still think our Achilles heels are complexity and ecological damage, with oil depletion riding the third horse.

[pscot]

7. I guess I'm just a traditionalist

I'm sticking with War, Famine, Pestilence and Death. The rest is all just modern window dressing.

[GliderGuider]

8. There's something to be said for tradition.

The rest are all proximate causes. In the end it all comes down to the Fab Four.

[joshcryer]

10. The trend for violence is down.

Even with the current wars violence is at an all time low, and the trend continues that way. Watching the news media will send you an opposite perception.

Famine is technologically solvable, but western civilization has yet to face it to any significant extent, so it doesn't have to solve it. When the Great Midwest Aquifer starts to become economically untappable this will change.

[joshcryer]

9. There are plenty of reasons to think that ours can survive.

Technology for one. Knowledge for another. All previous civilizations had one single defining flaw; they existed with a power elite and a concentration of knowledge technology and information.

[GliderGuider]

11. And ours doesn't?

Remember that "concentration" and "power" are both relative terms.

[joshcryer]

13. Oh, it does, but the trend is obviously not in that direction.

Western science is defined by open sharing of knowledge, the internet has gone a long way to help this occur. Consider the free software movement. When free hardware comes along (in the same philosophical underpinnings of free software), then we will be able to fix our problems rather than make them worse, as the current system of power concentration has done.

[GliderGuider]

14. "Obviously"?

The concentration of wealth and power is proceeding just fine, according to this study:

Income Inequality Is At An All-Time High: STUDY

Though income inequality has been growing for some time, the paper paints a stark, disturbing portrait of wealth distribution in America. Saez calculates that in 2007 the top .01 percent of American earners took home 6 percent of total U.S. wages, a figure that has nearly doubled since 2000.

As of 2007, the top decile of American earners, Saez writes, pulled in 49.7 percent of total wages, a level that's "higher than any other year since 1917 and even surpasses 1928, the peak of stock market bubble in the 'roaring" 1920s.'"

(Take a look in the graphs in the paper at the link. They're stark indeed.)

I'll see your free software and raise you an illegal wiretapping program. Remember that the internet by its very nature is completely egalitarian: it makes information available to the powerful as well as the powerless. And since the powerful have more resources to gather, collate and use that information, they have a vastly more powerful tool at their disposal than you and I do. Don't forget about Admiral John Poindexter's "Total Information Awareness" program.

The trend is obvious to you because of confirmation bias: you're only looking at the bits of data that support your predetermined conclusions. There is a host of data that screams the opposite.

[joshcryer]

18. See the links below.

And see www.gapminder.org

I don't think you're refuted what I've said, as you are browsing this internet connection while surfing through tens of nodes running free sofware.

[GliderGuider]

19. And so?

"you are browsing this internet connection while surfing through tens of nodes running free sofware."

So is DHS. So is the CIA and FBI (or in my case, CSIS and the RCMP). So is Exxon. So is Halliburton, KBR, Goldman Sachs and the American Enterprise Institute. I really don't see what free software does to prevent the consolidation of power at the top of the corporate/political hierarchy.

[joshcryer]

20. It's dramatically different from that of the past.

In the past the masses didn't have access to the same resources. That's the difference. So you cannot compare our current level of civilization to those doomed empires which rejected the ability of the masses.

[GliderGuider]

21. Do you really think Rome "rejected the ability of the masses"?

Within the limits of the technology of the day, their citizens were every bit as empowered as ours. We have more stuff, more energy available, more information. That makes us quantitatively different. Does it make us qualitatively different? Was the gap between a Roman peasant and a Roman senator, proportional to the resources each had at their disposal, really much different than the gap between a server at McDonald's and an American senator today? The bread is now made in factories and the circuses are televised, but I fail to see a significant difference when it comes down to their influence and their ability to command a share of the civilization's resources.

This is one rising tide that really has lifted all boats, but a rowboat is still a rowboat, and a luxury yacht is still a yacht no matter how much water is under the keel.

[joshcryer]

22. Are you honestly going to try to convince me Rome was as emancipated as modern internet culture?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Ancient_Rome

Knowledge, information, and technology were never available to the extent that they are today. Never in the whole of human written history.

Even the Renaissance doesn't compare to what we have today.

[GliderGuider]

23. Of course not. You miss my point.

Entirely.

[joshcryer]

24. Nah, you formed a straw man and twisted it.

Me: Technology is no longer concentrated to power structures like it was in ancient times (in fact in all previous histories).
You: But power structures use technology that those who want to free it use.
Me: Erm, completely different process, because the people didn't even have the technology back then.
You: Yeah OK you are stupid. I am right you are wrong.

It is completely disingenious to compare our current civilization to *any* past civilization. We are a completely different paradigm.

[GliderGuider]

25. Ah, we're a different paradigm.

OK, if you say so.

[joshcryer]

26. What previous civilization did every citizen have relatively equal access to the same information?

Name one. (You can't because such a society only existed in the past 20 years; and even then, only in the past 10 as piracy and the free sharing of information becamse a new cultural paradigm.)

There simply exist no comparison to ancient civilizations, because they were all defined by the concentration of knowledge and the concentration of power in the hands of an elite. Even "western science" came from such an environment, whereby "scientists" would get paid huge stipends to do their "work" (often for the Church) and the masses were uneducated and not allowed access to said information.

[Nederland]

15. Free Hardware?

You must be referring to hardware whose design is done in an open software fashion. I assume that the actual hardware will not be "free", but need to be bought and paid for to cover production costs, correct?

[joshcryer]

17. Not necessarily.

Free software is not free either, you need an internet connection and to pay for your electric bill. However, free hardware becomes "as cheap as free software" once you have the distribution networks available.

Two excellent discussions on this are here: http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/%22Die_Gedanken_sind_frei%22:_Free_Software_and_the_Struggle_for_Free_Thought

And here: http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Free_and_Open_Software:_Paradigm_for_a_New_Intellectual_Commons

And here is the beginning stages of "free hardware": www.reprap.org

[Barrett808]

3. Natural cycles! Sunspots! Undersea volcanoes!

But never, never human CO2 emissions!

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. I just had a bit of a run-in regarding increasing "sea ice" in Antarctica

The focus of it was a News Corporation story.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,517035,00.html

Report: Antarctic Ice Growing, Not Shrinking

Ice is expanding in much of Antarctica, contrary to the widespread public belief that global warming is melting the continental ice cap.

…

That story was based on a Press Release:
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=838

Press Release - Increasing Antarctic sea ice extent linked to the ozone hole

…

Regarding this study:
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0908/2009GL037524/

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L08502, doi:10.1029/2009GL037524, 2009

Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent

…

Abstract

(1) Based on a new analysis of passive microwave satellite data, we demonstrate that the annual mean extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased at a statistically significant rate of 0.97% dec−1 since the late 1970s. The largest increase has been in autumn when there has been a dipole of significant positive and negative trends in the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas respectively. The autumn increase in the Ross Sea sector is primarily a result of stronger cyclonic atmospheric flow over the Amundsen Sea. Model experiments suggest that the trend towards stronger cyclonic circulation is mainly a result of stratospheric ozone depletion, which has strengthened autumn wind speeds around the continent, deepening the Amundsen Sea Low through flow separation around the high coastal orography. However, statistics derived from a climate model control run suggest that the observed sea ice increase might still be within the range of natural climate variability.

Received 29 January 2009; revised 11 March 2009; accepted 25 March 2009; published 23 April 2009.

…

Key points:

1. We're talking about sea ice here, not "ice." Melting sea ice has little direct effect on sea levels.
2. The build-up of sea ice is roughly 1%/decade.
3. The slight buildup of sea ice is thought to be linked to the "ozone hole," (which is being addressed) so the trend is expected to reverse.
4. The study does not address glaciers, ice sheets or ice shelves, which directly affect sea levels.

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. Press Release

http://www.leeds.ac.uk/media/press_releases/current09/glacier.htm

14 August 2009

Antarctic glacier thinning at alarming rate

The thinning of a gigantic glacier in Antarctica is accelerating, scientists warned today.

The Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, which is around twice the size of Scotland, is losing ice four times as fast as it was a decade years ago.

The research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, also reveals that ice thinning is now occurring much further inland. At this rate scientists estimate that the main section of the glacier will have disappeared in just 100 years, six times sooner than was previously thought.

The Pine Island Glacier is located within the most inaccessible area of Antarctica – over 1000 km from the nearest research base – and was for many years overlooked. Now, scientists have been able to track the glacier’s development using continuous satellite measurements over the past 15 years.

“Accelerated thinning of the Pine Island Glacier represents perhaps the greatest imbalance in the cryosphere today, and yet we would not have known about it if it weren’t for a succession of satellite instruments,” says Professor Andrew Shepherd, a co-author of the research from the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds.

“Being able to assemble a continuous record of measurements over the past 15 years has provided us with the remarkable ability to identify both subtle and dramatic changes in ice that were previously hidden,” he adds.

Scientists believe that the retreat of glaciers in this sector of Antarctica is caused by warming of the surrounding oceans, though it is too early to link such a trend to global warming.

The 5,400 km squared region of the Pine Island Glacier affected today is big enough to impact the rate at which sea level rise around the world.

“Because the Pine Island Glacier contains enough ice to almost double the IPCC’s best estimate of 21st century sea level rise, the manner in which the glacier will respond to the accelerated thinning is a matter of great concern ” says Professor Shepherd.

The research was led by Professor Duncan Wingham at University College London, and was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council.

For more information
Professor Andrew Shepherd is available for interview. Mobile: [phone], Email: [e-mail]

A video showing the data of the ice loss in the Pine Island Glacier is available to journalists on request.

Please contact Clare Ryan in the University of Leeds press office on 0113 343 8059, Email: [e-mail]

Notes to Editors
The 2008 Research Assessment Exercise showed the University of Leeds to be the UK's eighth biggest research powerhouse. The University is one of the largest higher education institutions in the UK and a member of the Russell Group of research-intensive universities. The University's vision is to secure a place among the world's top 50 by 2015. www.leeds.ac.uk

The School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds is has more than 90 academic staff, over 60 research staff and 140 postgraduate researchers. It focuses on a multidisciplinary approach to understanding our environment, studying the Earth from its core to its atmosphere and examining the social and economic dimensions of sustainability. www.see.leeds.ac.uk/index.htm

The Natural Environment Research Council is the UK's main agency for funding and managing research, training and knowledge exchange in the environmental sciences. It coordinates some of the world's most exciting research projects, tackling major issues such as climate change, environmental influences on human health, and the genetic make-up of life on earth.

…

[hatrack]

6. Good thing it's Pine Island Glacier! If it were one of the outlet glaciers for WAIS, then we'd . .

Oh, wait a minute.

Sorry, never mind - and have a nice day!!

[XemaSab]

16. .

:spank:

[joshcryer]

12. This sort of thing is why it is extremely premature to make judgements about AGW.

That other epic thread ("Global warming will be no big deaL") is an example of premature conclusions. Sea level rise will fuck up civilization badly, mad max style.