100 mpg: What we'll drive next

[steven johnson]

There is a closet industry in this country that is converting cars to electric vehicles. if you can't wait for the Nissan Leaf or the Chevy Volt, there are conversions being done commercially.

Electric Cars Rolling Out

The Prius hackers

Paul Guzyk and Daniel Sherwood are computer geeks who co-founded 3Prong Power, a Berkeley business that transforms standard Toyota Priuses into all-electric green machines.

In 1999, Guzyk moved to California and rediscovered an old passion for cars after tinkering with a Prius. He found that in many ways the Toyota hybrid was more like a computer than an automobile. Notably, it ran on recognizable computer standards similar to those found in an office network.

First, they installed a bank of Prius batteries they had salvaged from a junkyard. That didn't work well, so they tried traditional lead-acid batteries, used in electric wheelchairs, which did the trick.

Next, they developed software that programmed the Prius to run only on its newly enlarged battery pack. Unlike the one in an unmodified Prius, the car's internal-combustion engine doesn't fire up -- and burn gas. Presto: instant electric car, albeit one with a range of only about 25 miles.

What we'll drive next

[TxRider]

1. Some folk have been doing this for a very long time...

http://www.motherearthnews.com/Green-Transportation/1993-06-01/Hybrid-Electric-Car.aspx

[n2doc]

2. And..we are still waiting

waiting for a real world (under 30K) practical (range of 100 or more miles, with warrantee and mechanics who can work on the thing nearby) safe ultra high MPG or electric vehicle. Every time I see a press release it is always 2-3 years out. And the price always goes up.

[TxRider]

3. Yup like those guys

The only real choice for now is to make your own.

[tinrobot]

4. That'll still cost $8-10k minimum, plus the cost of the vehicle.

That's if you buy the parts new.

Plus a few solid weeks of labor.

[Javaman]

5. And lots and lots of beer. nt

[PeaknikB]

6. Not enough minerals

There are not enough rare earth minerals to have anything similar to what we have now. The entire vehicle fleet will not be transitioned over to electric. But if it helps you sleep at night continue thinking that we'll all be driving electric powered sports cars come 2040.

[BeFree]

7. heh...welcome to DU

Think about it... there is not enough Earth to continue living like Americans do now.

[PeaknikB]

8. I don't really like the way we currently live

It's too plastic and manufactured, there is no real cultural identity.

[BeFree]

9. well

then you'll be happy when it all turns to dirt? And we all go back to living like cavemen?

[PeaknikB]

10. Not at all!

I never said I was some sort of Luddite :)

But due to constraints the world will be much smaller.

[BeFree]

11. You seem very confused

Like most Americans.

[PeaknikB]

12. So you're saying

We must live like most of the world?

[BeFree]

13. huh?

Can the rest of the world live like us?

I wish the rest of the world could, but there just isn't enough Earth, let alone the "rare Earth minerals" you started with, is there? And isn't oil kinda "rare Earth"?

[PeaknikB]

14. No the rest of the world can't

But considering we beat the rest of the world to the punch by starting the Industrial revolution we won't have to live like them. Our standard of living will decline, but the rest of the world will be lower than it is today.

[BeFree]

15. Isn't that special?

Fuck them, eh?

We are the have mores, and they are the have nots?

Of course you are dumb to the ways the rest of the world lives. Just like most Americans.

[PeaknikB]

16. Well

I would consider it to be more of survival through leverage. As Mao said "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." How am I dumb to the ways rest of the world lives? I know a huge percentage of the world lives on less than $2 a day.

[BeFree]

17. Cuz...

They will be living better, as more do every day. We are the only ones going down. We don't have the "rare Earth" like most of them do.

[PeaknikB]

18. How will they live better with their current numbers?

How will they make enough food when the oil exports are greatly decreased and there is no fuel for their water pumps, tractors, and delivery trucks? What happens when food imports to places like Africa become prohibitively expensive for many of the people? What happens to all the Chinese factory workers once the factories close down because it's too expensive for Americans to buy their products?

Their birth rates have been declining recently because of more wealth and education, when this wealth and education stops then what happens? Will they have a baby boom while there is a food shortage?

[BeFree]

19. Present day - go back 10 years

In the last 10 years most people's living is better. And is getting better everyday for most people. It is the have mosts that will be in decline and you have stated why.

What happens over the next 10 years? Those at the bottom will get better and those at the top will have less. Except for the top 2%, but they will eventually come down as they run out of Mao's bullets.

[PeaknikB]

20. Well I hope you're right

We'll just have to wait and see what happens :toast:

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

[BeFree]

21. Plan on it

As peak oil goes over the top, those who use the most will pay the most.
As peak minerals arrive, those who use the most will pay the most.
People who hardly use any of the oil or rare minerals will still have their lives continue to improve for some time. After that peak, shortly thereafter the bullets will begin to run out.

[TxRider]

25. Dunno about their lives improving

The hundreds of billions in food and aid would dry up for those people as the people who "use the most" cut that support off before they cut their own culture off, and millions would die.

"In 2004, governments, NGOs, and the World Food Programme (WFP) delivered over 7.5 million tons of food, valued approximately $3,260 million."

With another 60billion in economic aid.

Somehow losing that sounds like a dent in the whole seeing their lives improve side of things.

As for bullets, we made them just fine long before we discovered oil. Somehow I doubt peak oil will be the end of them.

[BeFree]

26. Oh?

Do you think that $3,620 million in aid was free? Did the farmers just give it away?

And if someone was dumping off on you, would you go out and farm yourself?

And if the world bank came calling would you accept the money or tell them no because what they really are after is natural resources in your country.

People's lives are improving because of water systems, better tools and the availability to acquire knowledge.

When the third world stops improving and begins going backward then the 3/5 of humanity involved will turn on the rich and the rich will run out of bullets in short order.

[PeaknikB]

27. The third world

Is not going to be able to touch the rich in the first world countries.

[BeFree]

29. Heh

9/11? Cut off our oil? Quit loaning us money?

[kestrel91316]

35. But the poor in the first world sure will. And their numbers are growing as

the middle class, at least in the US, withers and dies.

[TxRider]

28. Uhh yeah

It wasn't free to us, it is pretty much free to them.

Like the impoverished in the third world are going to walk to Europe and N, America and revolt. With no food to eat on the way... Right.

The third world will experience famine and death just as they do now, only we won't be there with our NGO's etc to send food and resources to help. The rich corrupt leaders of the third world may run out of bullets, but that's about it.

N Korea is third world and has gone backwards, what did we get for aiding them and sending food? And the rich there certainly did not run out of bullets.

I think you drastically underestimate how much ammunition our military stores. There's still even some WWII ammunition still stocked. We're still going through cold war era ammunition.

[BeFree]

30. right

It wasn't free to us. It cost us money, and that money went into our farmers hands and our barges. It made for many jobs, right here at home.

Korea is an outlier country. China, India, South Africa, Brazil, those hold the most people and they have all improved and will continue, for a bit.

Tell ya what, the masses of people, what is it now, 6 billion? Do we have that many bullets? Ever hear of ships? When we don't have enough oil to ship our ships and they do..... get the picture?

[TxRider]

31. Uhh no.

"It wasn't free to us. It cost us money, and that money went into our farmers hands and our barges. It made for many jobs, right here at home."

So what? Point is the third world will lose that supply of food and money in places like Africa and famine would ensue.




"Korea is an outlier country. China, India, South Africa, Brazil, those hold the most people and they have all improved and will continue, for a bit."

Most of those have improved because we are buying their goods and labor. When your crisis comes that would end in a flash. The millions of tons of soybean and other foods we sell to China will stop for example, the billions in goods we buy will stop. Their economies would crash worse than ours and famine would ensue. China is not able to grow enough food for it's population.

http://www.upiasia.com/Economics/2007/11/06/commentary_chinas_and_indias_impending_food_shortages/3741/

They cannot even handle significant rising of prices of food.

Our lower population density in the western world would serve us well there.




"Tell ya what, the masses of people, what is it now, 6 billion? Do we have that many bullets? Ever hear of ships? When we don't have enough oil to ship our ships and they do..... get the picture?"

That's not a picture, it's just a bad cartoon fantasy.

So the third world, with no mony, and no oil, is going to get on cargo ships and come invade Europe and the U.S. by the billions.. riiight.. Starving people tend to be looking for their next meal, killing off their own local rich people and leaders, not planning global military conquests they have no way to accomplish. The poorer world with their vast overpopulation would suffer immensely.

As for oil, The U.S. is the third highest oil producing nation behind Saudi and Russia. We produce twice the oil China does, and they are desperate for oil and minerals, buyimg up mines in Australia and South America and even attempting to buy up U.S. "rare earth" stocks. No oil? No minerals and food for China.

And then there's the massive issue of desertification in China.

http://www.gluckman.com/ChinaDesert.html

The U.S. imports most of it's imported oil from Canada and Mexico. So how are China and india going to cut off the "rich world" of Europe and the U.S.?

For someone calling Americans dumb and confused you seem to be lacking knowledge of who grows who's food, who supplies who's oil, and how the world in general works. You should really educate yourself more.

[BeFree]

32. You are a dreamer, eh?

You are king of the world, eh?

They can't live without us, eh?

Dream on, dream on.

[TxRider]

36. No just a realist

They can live without us, but it won't be pleasant for them or us. Less pleasant for the third world than the western world if we have to withdraw our aid and support and trade.

[bhikkhu]

37. "Do we have that many bullets?"

the question and the answer both are pretty unpleasant...but yes, of course we have that many bullets. The US military orders rounds by the billion. One estimate done in Iraq a couple of years ago was that for each "confirmed kill", 250,000 rounds were fired. And the military for years has used only one single manufacturer; there's plenty of others supplying the domestic market. There's also plenty of others supplying the international market. Its also pretty low-tech to make your own bullets. And if you wanted to branch out and not worry about bullets at all, we could talk about explosives...

[kestrel91316]

34. "I got mine - to hell with YOU" is a common RW talking point and

therefore completely inappropriate on DU.

[kestrel91316]

33. You don't seriously propose that everyone on earth lives like AMERICANS???????

You do know that it's physically impossible, right?

[TxRider]

23. How much would we need?

"If invested in fully, North American rare earth deposits could produce up to 40,000 metric tons of rare earths annually, more than twice the amount currently used by U.S. industries and enough to allow American self-sufficiency in the rare earth market even as demand continues to grow."

http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/ARCHIVE/2009/OCTOBER/Pages/Defense,EnergyMarketsShouldBraceforShortagesofKeyMaterials.aspx

[PeaknikB]

24. No idea, but the Chinese are already limiting the mining of them

http://english.cctv.com/program/newshour/20090905/104795.shtml
But I imagine it would be a huge amount to convert the vehicle fleet.

[BeFree]

22. Good move

If we are to have a lifestyle similar to what we now enjoy, we must make do with less. Lots of people in the US are making do with less and less. And if the majority of the world is to ever have a chance to improve their lifestyles, we, the major users of resources, need to greatly reduce our consumption. We need to better share the Earth's limited resources.

It is the morally correct thing to do. As an example of doing the right thing is this move to electric cars which use less resources. It is not everything we can do but it is progress.