Behind China's 2,000 Years Of Rebellion, Collapse & Invasions - Climate Coolings, Study Argues - AFP

[hatrack]

EDIT

Theories that weather-related calamities such as drought, floods and locust plagues steered the unraveling or creation of Chinese dynasties are not new. But until now, no one had systematically scanned the long sweep of China's tumultuous history to see exactly how climate and Chinese society might be intertwined.

Chinese and European scientists led by Zhibin Zhang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
in Beijing decided to compare two sets of data over 1,900 years. Digging into historical archives, they looked at the frequency of war, price hikes of rice, locust plagues, droughts and floods. For conflict, they distinguished between internal strife and external wars. At the same time, they reconstructed climate patterns over the period under review.

"The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han (25-220), Tang (618-907), Northern Song (960-1125), Southern Song (1127-1279) and Ming (1368-1644) are closely associated with low temperature or the rapid decline in temperature," they conclude. A shortage of food would have weakened these dynasties, and pushed nomads in the north -- even more vulnerable to dips in temperature -- to invade their southern, Chinese-speaking neighbours, the authors argued. A drop of 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in average annual air temperature can shorten the growing season for steppe grasses, which are critical for livestock, by up to 40 days.

"When the climate worsens beyond what the available technology and economic system can compensate for, people are forced to move or starve," they said.

EDIT

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Chinas_wars_rebellions_driven_by_climate_study_999.html

[glitch]

1. As everywhere. Good to see it studied and publicized. K & R nt

[bhikkhu]

2. the astute reader might notice...

none of the dates critical in Chinese history really correspond to those critical in European history - where the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are prominent. Which is to say, all these are more correctly "regional weather" issues, or the subtle shifts of weather patterns around the globe.

Global warming can disrupt weather patterns of course, but its generally more everyone racing in the same toasty direction, rather than a shift in the balance of a reasonably stable system.