French Government Report Projects World Oil Peak In 2013 - BBC

[hatrack]

EDIT

A French government report on the global oil industry forecasts a possible peak in world production as early as 2013. The report 'The Oil Industry 2004' takes a long look at future production and supply issues. But perhaps what is most interesting about this Economics, Industry & Finance Ministry report, is that it actually mentions a possible production plateau at all.

Even one year ago it was unheard of to find the subject mentioned amongst government ministries or financial institutions. Now banks such as Goldman Sachs, Caisse D'Epargne/Ixis, Simmons International and the Bank of Montreal have all broached the subject. "They are being forced to by circumstances," says Professor Richard Heinberg, author of 'peak oil' books Power Down and The Party's Over. "They have relied on optimistic data and rosy outlooks that are being proven to be incorrect."

Nevertheless, some analysts disagree with the notion of any peak in oil production, also known as 'Hubberts curve', after the geologist M King Hubbert who first argued the case. Deborah White, senior energy analyst at Societe Generale in Paris, says that "we have heard these arguments about 'peak oil' since the idea of Hubert's curve came into being. "We don't endorse the idea at all."

And yet, the French report, perhaps the most open government dossier yet, questions the viability of long term oil production. The report's second chapter 'Global Exploration and Production' runs a series of differing scenarios based on current forecasts.

EDIT

Chris Sanders spoke at the recent Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference and is director of international finance consultants Sanders Research. He believes 'peak oil' is major threat to modern economies. "There is only so long politicians can ignore a geological problem, and it is a geological one," he says."

EDIT

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4077802.stm

[jojo54]

1. Doesn't leave much time before the entire world is thrown into

chaos, does it?

[Nordmadr]

2. Can you hear me now?

It is sort of how the global warming debate started out. A few fringe scientists, creeping into the scientific community, then a little into government, where for some reason it mostly stalls. Just like global warming, governments don't really have a good plan "B". So they stick with plan "A", plausible deniability as long as possible. With global warming, that plan is losing it's credibilty, probably too late. How long before the same happens with this crisis?

Notice the climate conditions changing? Record temperatures, record storms, droughts, tsunamis, etc.

Notice gas prices, notice inflation, notice unemployment and economic stagnation, notice the crumbling airlines and auto manufacturers, notice the posturing and government secrecy, NOTICE THE FUCKING WAR and PATRIOT ACT.

CLAP!!!! WAKE UP FOLKS!

Olaf

[BlueEyedSon]

3. FYI there is a "Peak Oil" group here on DU, probably lots of interest

there

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=266

[Massacure]

4. I heard 2008-2010.

The French might be using different data though. The reserves under the middle east are sketchy at best.

[Delphinus]

8. Ken Deffeyes said it was 2002-2005.

That was his first book - I'm picking up his second book today, so maybe it will have an updated date.

At any rate, we'd better shit or get off the pot.

[moodforaday]

5. BBC notes it's unusual for gvt to say 'Peak Oil'

From the article:

It is also very unusual to find a government report using the wording 'peak oil'. This is a phrase often used to describe the theory of a global oil production plateau, after which production would begin to decline.

Chris Sanders spoke at the recent Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference and is director of international finance consultants Sanders Research.

He believes 'peak oil' is major threat to modern economies.

"There is only so long politicians can ignore a geological problem, and it is a geological one," he says.

"Governments have had a great chance to take the lead on this situation, but they have not taken it. Now they are being forced to react.

"Why? Because it is very probable that we are nearing 'peak oil'."

The French report uses the phrase, in English, and repeats it on no less than four occasions.

[Double T]

6. How Much Advanced Warning And How Many Ways Does It Have To Be Said...

There is a finite amount of fossil oil on this planet and everybody wants to take control of it. It is well beyond the time for conservation of the available oil reserves. Americans are the oil hogs of the world and we need to IMMEDIATELY change our ways in order to extend the availability of the limited reserves. I don't know about you, but where I live it has been the hottest summer I can ever remember; global warming is here but everyone seems to be reluctant to admit it because it might make us feel uncomfortable, and I'm NOT referring to the temperature. The devastation to this entire planet's economy and environment is only years away unless we all start becoming more responsible for our fuel consumption.

[Strelnikov_]

7. "We Have Heard These Arguments About 'Peak Oil' . . .

since the idea of Hubbert's curve came into being. "We don't endorse the idea at all."

My question for Ms. White is, did the US not hit production peak about when Dr. Hubbert predicted? Is it not reasonable that the same methodology could be applied to worldwide production?

Ms. White sounds like an AEI propagandist.

[phantom power]

9. It's strange, isn't it.

I mean, you can argue about the date. But how can anybody possibly argue about the "idea?" The supply of oil is finite. There has to be a point of "peak oil". It follows from the laws of logic, as surely as 2+2=4.

Unless you believe in some alternate theory like abiotic oil, and that this oil is being replenished faster than we're using it. Which seems false on the face of it, since we are forced to pump saltwater into the oil fields to maintain pressure.

[Boomer]

10. Only if you're part of the "reality-based community"

I hope the fantasy-based community is in good cardio health because they're going to have a very nasty shock when they try to drive their SUVs on nothing but willpower.

[Dogmudgeon]

11. There's a major problem, though, with Peak Oil

I don't think we'll really know where the peak is until several years after we hit it. The energy market will allow us to game the situation until production has fallen far enough that strategists can't blame lack of refinery capacity, variations in crude oil quality and refining losses, short-term gluts or shortfalls, or fluctuations in discoveries.

I know this point has been made before, but over the past few weeks of reading, I've revised my point of view somewhat. I've become convinced that the market is capable of damping much larger fluctuations than I previously suspected. Illusions and appearances can be probably kept up for half of a decade. In other words, we may already be post-peak. I don't think we're quite there yet, but the earliest I would predict the big panic to kick in would be 2007-2008, and would prefer to go with a 2013-2014 time frame; in each case, 3-6 years after the real peak.

--p!

[brokensymmetry]

12. Maybe...maybe not.

The markets can damp out fluctuations, but the market is an emotional (dare I say crazed?) beast - and fear can drive prices to insane levels.

Case in point - North American natural gas. It was about $5.00 per million BTU (MBTU) in March, 2004. In August 2004, it was %6.10. Presently, it is $8.50 - and rumors are suggesting $10 by next year. So keeping the gas in the ground can generate more profit than selling it. Would companies do that? I think so...

Due to the hot Summer, we aren't building up natural gas storage; so if it's a normal or colder than usual winter, things will get interesting.

Could the same thing happen with oil? Especially since Saudi Arabia has 25% unemployment? And a large Shiite population with historic grievances? Hmm....

[4dsc]

13. You are correct sir!!

You statement is the correct one when you stated "I don't think we'll really know where the peak is until several years after we hit it". And that's the real problem here. We are not preparing for PEAK at all and when oil production starts to decline FOREVER, we are all screwed!!