Japan's Liquid Fuels Crisis

[phantom power]

It seems clear that this liquid fuels crisis will be an ongoing one for Japan and may soon affect global markets for refined products. Several interdependent issues are important in understanding how this will play out:

1. How much has consumption of liquid fuels dropped in Japan?
2. How quickly can the more severely damaged refineries be brought on line?
3. How quickly can Japanese import infrastructure be restored?

Right now it is clear that many Japanese will suffer through the current cold weather due to a lack of kerosene. Gasoline shortages are problematic but probably manageable unless a more serious nuclear meltdown requires a mass exodus from populated areas. This could be next to impossible given current supplies of gasoline. It is less clear from recent articles how important diesel is in the immediate aftermath of the destruction. Clearly, though, a lot of diesel will be needed in coming months for construction and rebuilding.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7726