I think I've demonstrated that I'm a reasonably accurate reader, and reasonably capable of honest discussion. So how would you track that as a statement it had already happened?
Let me answer that, for your interpretation does have merit, even though it is *slightly* miscast. The goal was announced some weeks ago, so it isn't new to most of us. My words expressed certitude, yes they certainly did. But the certitude wasn't about what has been, but what will be.
I have said since 2009 - when the Chinese central government revamped the laws governing how their grid operators are obligated to give purchase preference to renewables - that the direction of the global energy future had been set. All US energy policy into alternatives is aimed at one thing - driving the development of a manufacturing base. I haven't tried to quantify it yet, but with a single stroke the move by China created a market that is so much larger than any potential market the US could possibly generate that every previous projection went instantly in the trash.
Do you remember reading this?
In 2003, when the DOE solar pamphlet below was written, the US was the leader in PV - now we are 5th. Myth #2 identifies a target of 3.2 GWp of US manufacturing capacity as being needed to meet a US goal of 10% of electricity from solar by 2030. The /p/ in GWp refers to manufacturing production capacity.
However since the Republicans have successfully obstructed every policy that would have helped the industry grow here, global solar manufacturing capacity is now the number to look at. Global mfg capacity will reach about 45GWp this year with China's manufacturing capacity alone expected to hit 35GWp, even though they didn't start building solar panel factories until 2007.
To put that in perspective, if China's factories manufacture 35GWp of solar panels each year those panels will produce the equivalent electricity of about 7 or 8 large nuclear power plants.
So in 12 years, the amount of now existing factory capacity (in China alone) will manufacture enough panels to equal the output of between 84 - 96 nuclear power plants. And the buildup of manufacturing is just getting started. Within ten years it is hoped/expected/thought that global solar manufacturing capacity will hit 1000GWp/year
(see the slideshow at this solar company website for a graph showing how increased manufacturing directly impacts the price of the electricity produced
http://www.1366tech.com/ And before you say it can't be done, consider that in 2007, China wasn't involved in solar manufacturing and now, 4 years later they have 35GWp. After Fukushima, what do you think they are going to do?
Here is part of that 2002 reference by DOE, note #2:
Myth #1
Solar electricity cannot contribute a significant fraction of the nation’s electricity needs.Solar electric panels can meet electricity demand on any scale, from a single home to a large city. There is plenty of energy in the sunlight shining on all parts of our nation to generate the electricity we need. For example, with today’s commercial systems, the solar energy resource in a 100-by-100-mile area of Nevada could supply the United States with all of its electricity. If these systems were distributed to the 50 states, the land required from each state would be an area of about 17 by 17 miles. This area is available now from parking lots, rooftops, and vacant land. In fact,
90% of America’s current electricity needs could be supplied with solar electric systems built on the estimated 5 million acres of abandoned industrial sites in our nation’s cities.
Myth #2
Solar electricity can do everything—right now!Solar electricity will eventually contribute a significant part of our electricity supply, but the industry required to produce these systems must grow more than tenfold over the next 10 years. In 2001, about 400 megawatts of solar electric modules were produced worldwide. According to an industry-planning document, in order to supply just 10% of U.S. generation capacity by 2030, the U.S. solar electricity industry must supply more than 3,200 megawatts per year (3.2GWp). Most experts agree that with continued research, solar electric systems will become more efficient, even more reliable, and less expensive.
Download the entire list of "solar myths" the DOE seeks to dispel at:
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/32529.pdf 
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
