Drought Monitor 19 April - Slight Relief S. OK - Dallas; Extreme (D3) Spreads To CO, KS, Northern TX

[hatrack]

National Drought Summary -- April 19, 2011

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

A severe storm ripped through the Southeast this week. In its wake, at least 45 people were killed across Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Virginia, including over 20 in North Carolina alone. Preliminary reports indicate that there were 230 tornadoes in the region which affected the above states as well as Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, and Texas. As an example of the storm’s intensity, North Carolina, which normally experiences 19 tornadoes a year, saw 90 tornadoes in this outbreak, according to preliminary reports. This system also dumped rain up the East Coast and into New England.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

The Southeast: The devastating severe storms that hammered the region largely dumped rain in areas that were unaffected by drought. In central Kentucky, an estimated seven plus inches of rain fell in an already wet area leading to more concern over flooding than drought. The same was true throughout northern Alabama and Georgia where just clipped areas of Abnormal Dryness (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1), leading to slight alleviation along their northern extent. In southeast Georgia, the accumulated precipitation did alleviate Extreme Drought (D3) conditions.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Ample rains fell again this week throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The severe storm that impacted the South made its way northeastward with somewhat less intensity. The rains led to a decrease in Abnormal Dryness (D0) in Virginia, Moderate Drought (D1) was eradicated in Virginia and greatly reduced in northern North Carolina.

The South: Severe weather impacted select areas of the South. Heavy rain accompanied tornadoes in some areas. In Oklahoma and Texas, there was a slight alleviation of Extreme (D3) and Severe (D2) drought conditions in the south-central to southeast Oklahoma – northeast Texas area. Over much of the remaining region, however, drought conditions maintained or intensified. The Oklahoma panhandle and nearby locations in northern Texas, southeast Colorado, and southwest Kansas saw the introduction of Extreme Drought (D3). Further, conditions along the Texas Gulf Coast and into the Louisiana Gulf Coast intensified with one category degradation over select areas. In north-central Texas, while conditions did not change appreciably, strong impacts are being felt. High temperatures combined with no precipitation and high winds have led to widespread wildfires. Unless precipitation comes in to the area soon, conditions are likely to become exceptional. Conditions in south-central and southwest Texas saw drought intensify as well. Another area of Exceptional Drought (D4) was introduced in that area.

The Plains and Midwest: Heavy rains which fell across Nebraska this week alleviated Abnormal Dryness (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) conditions throughout the central part of the state and part of the Panhandle. Moderate Drought (D1) in the south-central part of the state was pulled southward into Kansas. Eastern Nebraska and Iowa saw alleviation of Abnormal Dryness (D0).

The West: The West generally continues to benefit from above normal snowpack and beneficial precipitation, with the exception of the Southwest. In Wyoming, the northern area of Abnormal Dryness (D0) was eliminated. The southern area of Abnormal Dryness was repositioned to align more closely with the indicators for this week. In Colorado, Severe Drought (D2) expanded westward in the south-central part of the state. An area of Extreme Drought (D3) was introduced in the southeast part of the state, coinciding with deteriorating conditions in the Oklahoma Panhandle, northern Texas, and southwest Kansas. New Mexico saw a slight expansion of Extreme Drought (D3) along the Texas border.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Drought conditions remained unchanged across Alaska and Puerto Rico this week. In Hawaii, conditions of Extreme Drought (D3) were alleviated on Kauai. Conditions in southeastern Puerto Rico improved slightly with rains that fell from the April 13-16 but some Abnormal Dryness (D0) still remains at timescales longer than a month.

Looking Ahead: During the April 21-25, 2011 time period, there is an enhanced probability of precipitation in the northern Plains, the Upper Midwest, and into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Later in the period, this precipitation is expected to move into the Northeast. A second area of elevated precipitation potential is expected along the Pacific Northwest coast late in this period. Temperatures are generally forecast to be normal to below normal throughout most of the northern tier of the country for this entire period and in the Southwest late in the period. Above normal temperatures are generally expected in the southern tier of the country.

For the ensuing 5 days (April 26 – 30, 2011), the odds favor cooler-than-normal conditions for much of the western part of the country roughly from the Upper Midwest down through the Plains to northern Texas and over to the Pacific Coast, with the exception of southern California. Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected across the eastern U.S. from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast and over to the Atlantic Coast and along Southern California. The odds of above-normal precipitation are greatest from the Upper Midwest, through the Ohio Valley, and into the South and Southeast. A second area of above-normal precipitation is forecasted for the Northwest. Odds favor below-normal precipitation in the Southwest through southwestern Texas. In Alaska, the odds favor normal to below-normal temperatures across the state. The southeastern part of the state should expect above-normal precipitation while the northwestern part of the state should expect below-normal precipitation.

Author: Michael Brewer, National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

EDIT/END

[Ian David]

1. Ann Coulter says there can't be a shortage of something that literally falls out of the sky. n/t

[jwirr]

2. Thank you for that site. It will allow me to monitor a lot of interesting

events. I see we up here in NE MN are considered in a drought even though mild. That is surprising as the ponds and rivers are running high from the snow runoff. But we have only had rain once so far this spring. I haven't seen the fire warning signs so do not know if there are warnings out or not. The Reservation has a sign board on the way out of town that alerts us to dangers daily. I really like that.