A Surprise: China’s Energy Consumption Will Stabilize—within 20 years

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://newscenter.lbl.gov/news-releases/2011/04/27/china-energy-consumption-will-stabilize/

A Surprise: China’s Energy Consumption Will Stabilize

New Berkeley Lab study forecasts peak in energy use in China within 20 years.

April 27, 2011

Berkeley, CA—As China’s economy continues to soar, its energy use and greenhouse gas emissions will keep on soaring as well—or so goes the conventional wisdom. A new analysis by researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) now is challenging that notion, one widely held in both the United States and China.

Well before mid-century, according to a new study by Berkeley Lab’s China Energy Group, that nation’s energy use will level off, even as its population edges past 1.4 billion. “I think this is very good news,’’ says Mark Levine, co-author of the report, “China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050,” and director of the group. “There’s been a perception that China’s rising prosperity means runaway growth in energy consumption. Our study shows this won’t be the case.”

Along with China’s rise as a world economic power have come a rapid climb in energy use and a related boost in man-made carbon dioxide emissions. In fact, China overtook the United States in 2007 as the world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gases.

Yet according to this new forecast, the steeply rising curve of energy demand in China will begin to moderate between 2030 and 2035 and flatten thereafter. There will come a time—within the next two decades—when the number of people in China acquiring cars, larger homes, and other accouterments of industrialized societies will peak. It’s a phenomenon known as saturation. “Once nearly every household owns a refrigerator, a washing machine, air conditioners and other appliances, and once housing area per capita has stabilized, per household electricity growth will slow,’’ Levine explains.

Similarly, China will reach saturation in road and rail construction before the 2030-2035 time frame, resulting in very large decreases in iron and steel demand. Additionally, other energy-intensive industries will see demand for their products flatten.

…

[diane in sf]

1. UN figures also show world population stabilizing around 2050, with more efficient

and cleaner energy sources humanity may be on its way to a much nicer future.

[Systematic Chaos]

2. I'll have what YOU'RE...

...oh, never mind.

:rofl: