UNL Drought Monitor 26 April - D4 Expands In Texas, Some Relief In E. Oklahoma

[hatrack]

National Drought Summary -- April 26, 2011

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Severe storms ripped through the country again this week. Tornadoes killed eight or more people in Arkansas and struck the St Louis airport, halting flights in and out. Flooding along the Black River in southeastern Missouri has broken levees leading to flooding around the Butler County area. Emergencies due to the flooding have been declared in Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky. Meanwhile, drought in the South continues unabated at near-record levels in some places.

The Southeast: Storms passed through northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia again this week while the southern parts of these states and the Panhandle of Florida saw little in the way of precipitation. Severe (D2) and Moderate (D1) Drought expanded in Louisiana, as did Abnormal Dryness (D0). Recent beneficial precipitation helped alleviate Moderate Drought (D1) in central South Carolina. Sporadic thunderstorm activity was experienced over much of southern Florida where drought conditions remained steady. In western and central Kentucky, another week of above-normal precipitation, with estimates in some areas over 5 inches, resulted in flood watches and warnings. an estimated seven plus inches of rain fell in an already wet area leading to more concern over flooding than drought.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Ample rains fell again this week through the western part of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Eastern parts of this area were drier this week but longer-term deficits are almost non-existent. Continued improvement in Abnormal Dryness (D0) in Virginia was experienced due to the impacts of the recent storms.

The South: Severe weather and impacted select areas of the South. Heavy rain accompanied tornadoes in some areas, such as Arkansas. In Oklahoma, rains in the central and eastern part of the state, alleviated some Extreme (D3) Severe (D2), and Moderate (D1) drought conditions, especially in areas that saw over 7 inches. Mild improvement from this same system was felt in north-central Texas and across most of Arkansas. Over much of the remaining region, however, drought conditions maintained status quo or intensified. An area of Exceptional (D4) Drought was introduced along the Texas-Oklahoma border. Exceptional Drought (D4) also intensified in western and southern Texas. Areas of Extreme Drought (D3) also expanded in central and southern Texas. Severe drought (D2) expanded in northern Texas. Across Texas, short-term impacts, especially on agriculture, are being felt. High temperatures combined with no precipitation and high winds continue to drive widespread wildfires and have led to massive crop losses. Unless precipitation comes in to the area soon, longer-term impacts will begin to be felt and conditions will likely degrade to Exceptional Drought (D4).

The Plains and Midwest: Another week with beneficial rains in Nebraska alleviated Abnormal Dryness (D0) in the western and central parts of the state. In eastern Nebraska and Iowa, Abnormal Dryness (D0) was eradicated.

The West: The West generally continues to benefit from above normal snowpack and beneficial precipitation, with the exception of the Southwest. In Colorado, Severe Drought (D2) expanded westward in the south-central part of the state. An area of Extreme Drought (D3) was introduced in the southeast part of the state, coinciding with deteriorating conditions in the Oklahoma Panhandle, northern Texas, and southwest Kansas. New Mexico saw an expansion of Extreme Drought (D3) through the central part of the state up to the Albuquerque area.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Drought conditions remained unchanged across these areas this week. Some improvement in southeast Puerto Rico could be warranted in coming weeks, if they continue to receive precipitation at the above normal rate experienced this week.

Looking Ahead: During the April 28 – May 2, 2011 time period, there is an enhanced probability of precipitation extending across the northern tier of the country. Later in the period, this precipitation is expected to move into the Midwest and Southeast. Temperatures are generally forecast to be normal to above normal from the central US into the East Coast the highest probabilities moving eastward throughout the period. Below-normal temperatures are generally expected migrate from the Pacific Northwest early in the period to the central US later in the period.

For the ensuing 5 days (May 3 – 7, 2011), the odds favor normal to cooler-than-normal conditions over much of the northern part of the lower-48 states, from the High Plains to the Northwest. Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected across the Southwest and the South and into the Southeast, along the Gulf Coast. The odds of above-normal precipitation are greatest across the northern tier of the country, in the South, and up through the Ohio Valley and into southern New England. Odds favor below-normal precipitation in the Southeast in the Southwest, extending into the lower Plains. In Alaska, the odds favor normal to below-normal temperatures across the state. Below-normal precipitation is also expected across the state with the exception of the coastal area around Glacier Bay and Juneau, where the odds favor above-normal precipitation.

Author: Michael Brewer, National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

EDIT/END

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. Perry's days of prayer really worked out, huh?