Japanese Senior Advisor: "Reactors 1, 2, 3 All Had Complete Meltdown"

[flamingdem]

Fukushima I Nuke Plant: Japan Nuclear Technology Institute Senior Advisor Says "Reactors 1, 2, 3 All Had Complete Meltdown"

VIDEO in JAPANESE (if you speak Japanese please get back to us to confirm the translation)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO0flpwmjJI&feature=player_embedded

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/04/fukushima-i-nuke-plant-japan-nuclear.html

Saturday, April 30, 2011

(UPDATED with the video in question at the end. That he looks like a Tokyo University graduate a-shole. But he says not only the fuels have melted down completely but some of them may already be outside the Pressure Vessels. There are other interesting snippets of info he says. I'll post them later.)

--------------------------------
Michio Ishikawa, the former head of the Japan Nuclear Technology Institute and the current "most senior" advisor to the Institute, appeared on an Asahi TV program on April 29 and shared his candid assessment of Fukushima I Nuke Plant accident.

He is known as one of the most ardent proponents of nuclear power generation. The Japan Nuclear Technology Institute was set up in 2005 by Ishikawa in order to represent the interest of the nuclear industry in Japan and promote nuclear energy.

People who watched this Asahi TV program were surprised to hear him contradict the official government "narrative" (I hate that word, but in this case it is exactly what it is, a "narrative" as opposed to reality) about the plant accident, even as he continues to insist nuclear power plants are safe and 100 milli-sieverts cumulative radiation is perfectly safe not just for the plant workers but for everyone.

Here are some of the comments he made during the program, jotted down by a viewer as he watched the program, and supplemented later with tweets by others. He weaves his own narratives like "no one anticipated such an accident" (oh yes many people did). Original in Japanese, my English translation, :

「世界が予想しなかった事故」
"It's an accident that no one in the world anticipated."



「天災というのはそんなにしょっちゅう起きてたら天災じゃない」
"If an Act of God happens all the time, it's no longer an Act of God."



「福島の事故は津波がなければ起きていなかった」
"The Fukushima accident never would have happened without tsunami."



「8時間以内に電気が来ていれば、今の事態にはなっていない」
"If the power was restored within 8 hours, we wouldn't have the situation we have today."



「福島は地震や老朽化によって事故を起こしたわけじゃないんです」
"The accident didn't happen because of the earthquake or the aging plant."



「原発は30年どころか、60年、100年だって大丈夫ですよ」
"A nuclear power plant lasts not just for 30 years, but for 60, 100 years."



「いま福島原発で通常時のルールのまま些末な対策ばかりやっている、非常時の対応が必要」
"At Fukushima I Nuke Plant, they've been applying minor countermeasures as if it is a normal situation. They need the emergency response."



「今は放射線との戦争状態、まったく東電の対応はなっていない」
Right now, it's the war with radiation. TEPCO's response is horrendous.



「今の福島原発は戦争状態、戦場なんですよ」
Fukushima I Nuke Plant is at war, it's a war zone.



「政府の発表は間違い。燃料棒は全部溶け落ちてしまっていると思う」
The government announcement is wrong. I think all the fuel rods have been melted down.

「水棺などといってモタモタしてないで、炉心を早く冷やすことに一心になれ」
Don't bother with water entombment. Focus on cooling the core as soon as possible.

（トレーラーハウスを被災地に導入すべきとの意見に）「また津波が来ますよ」とにやけながら発言。
(Responding to the idea of introducing trailer houses in the earthquake/tsunami affected area, with a smirk on this face) Another tsunami will come.



「20mSvぐらいで避難させているのはおかしい。100mSvまで安全なんだから帰らせたらいい」
It's wrong to evacuate people at mere 20 milli-sieverts. It's safe up to 100 milli-sieverts, so let them go home.



「原発の作業員だって250mSvまで大丈夫なんだから」
Nuclear plant workers are safe up to 250 milli-sieverts.



（原子力を推進したのは東電なのか政府なのかという質問に）「東電ってことはない、政府の方だ」
(Responding to the question whether it is TEPCO or the Japanese government who has promoted nuclear power) Not TEPCO. It's the government.

「浜岡原発はやめる必要はない。強度はしっかりしている。マグニチュード９でも福島は持った。浜岡でも心配することはない。津波は、電源さえきちんとしておけば大丈夫」
No need to stop Hamaoka Nuke Plant . It is built strong. Fukushima survived a Magnitude 9 earthquake. So, no need to worry about Hamaoka. As long as electricity is available, no need to fear tsunami.

「私の仲間で原爆の仇をとるんだといって（原子力発電の道に）進んだものもいる」
Among my colleagues, there are those who embarked on the career in nuclear power generation as a revenge against the nuclear bombs .



For those who understand Japanese, here's the video (part 2 of 11) where he discusses the melted core:

[GReedDiamond]

1. There are no active links in your post...nt

[flamingdem]

2. Hi, yes I just added the link to the site

the youtube is interesting for tone even if only in Japanese so I'll add that link too

[GReedDiamond]

3. My girlfriend is born and raised in Tokyo...

...she was over there when the disaster struck...she's back in CA now...I'll ask her to take a look at it.

[flamingdem]

4. It would be great to know what happens at the end

where everyone talks over each other. What is the attitude towards the nuclear adviser, reverence? Are they humoring him? There is a lot of laughing from time to time, are they challenging him, surprised by his analysis? Thanks!!

[GReedDiamond]

9. I had her look at the YouTube video at your link...

...this morning, first chance for that. She got a little annoyed. She was apparently aware of this discussion, but since it was from a couple of days ago, it was "old news" to her.

She did not hear the "expert" or anybody else say that there were complete meltdowns.

She said that the other people on the panel were mostly asking questions, and were in general agreement with his responses to the questions.

She said also that he expressed great concern over high levels of cobalt 60 being released.

She said that there were too many people from Tepco and the Japanese Govt. making too many statements, often contradictory, and that there should be a single spokesperson, not many, because everybody is confused and not sure of what to do, and where this situation would end up.

The whole thing just seemed to piss her off...sorry, that's all I could get out of her.

[flamingdem]

11. Thanks, much appreciated

I wonder what happened with the meltdown translation, Kristopher said it was okay, this writer ex-skf has stated this in a couple of posts now.

[GReedDiamond]

14. She has relatives and friends in Japan...

...her mother, father, sister, etc...she is very Japanese, very proud of Japan, almost to a ridiculous degree.

If they did say that there were three core meltdowns, for all I know, she may block that out, reject the whole notion because the ramifications are quite serious.

She also has a little trouble translating the Japanese into English, because she cannot always come up with the proper words or phrases in English.

Like I said, she seemed a little put off that I asked her to sit through the whole fifteen minutes. I think she's been listening to these kind of discussions on Japanese news shows on DishNetwork TV Japan, and she says there is too much talk, not enough real coherent information, and, more importantly, positive action coming out of it.

Sorry I couldn't help more.

[flamingdem]

15. It's very helpful

because it's interesting to hear about her reaction. From here it's difficult to get a picture of what they're really going through especially culturally. There's a broad range of reactions for sure. The meltdown phrase might have been a technical term, but the ex-sfk guy said the speaker didn't mince words.

[kristopher]

5. What you've written is translated well.

I live in the country and do not have highspeed so can't help with the youtube.

[bananas]

6. "the temperature inside the melted core is 2000 degrees to 2000 and several hundred degrees Celsius"

He has a second post on this, where Michio Ishikawa says "I think the temperature inside the melted core is 2000 degrees to 2000 and several hundred degrees Celsius" (among other things).

[TheMadMonk]

7. He's pretty much on the money there.

Timid responses at every stage of this disaster damned near guaranteed the outcome we've gotten.

The US fleet could have had the power back on in time.

The hydrogen explosions would almost certainly not have happened if the operators hadn't felt compelled to try to contain steam which was only notionally dangerous, near the plant, and effectively harmless at more than a few km distance.

If steam could have been released faster, the cores could have been kept cooler longer, perhaps long enough.


Agressive action, accepting a certain amount of spillage and leakage, would have had a high likelihood of bringing about a far better resolution than is possible now.

[jpak]

8. The Fukushima Apologist Happy Talk Squad will be here soon to tell us why this is all good

and everything is hunky dory

yup

[ReturnoftheDjedi]

10. I'm willing to bet FBag and his ilk avoid this thread like the plague.

[flamingdem]

12. They would otherwise diss the messenger for their lack of credentials

or distance from the problem, but now the experts next to the problem are telling the tale.

It points to a country being ripped apart by nuclear power.

This is what the pro-Nuke squadron is trying to blur, because yes it could happen here as well.

[ReturnoftheDjedi]

13. They care more about their jobs than the people of this planet.

Is their money that good??

[flamingdem]

16. I think it's also ideological

.. especially the old school crowd believes that nuke energy is clean and can't get past that to see the downside.

It makes me fear for the human race that people who have training could be so stupid when considering the big picture.

There is no way around the fact that thousands, many thousands will die of cancer in Japan as a result of this and the fallout, cesium is scattered around the globe now, who knows what other materials, will reduce lifespans everywhere.

And biggest point of all is just how long it will be there, and the fact that a culturally and agriculturally important area of Japan is now essentially lost, unless one is in denial..

[SpoonFed]

19. Not all bad

It points to a country being ripped apart by nuclear power.

It's taking its slow, sweet time, given the fact that this thing has been going on for 52 days.

I'm talking in the figurative sense, we're all too familiar in the literal sense; of the terrible human tragedy of untold scale that has fall on Japan.

It speak volumes about its rigid and codified social structure that it has taken this long for real dissent to start emerging and it seems to be coming from the very top. I can't help but feel somewhat naive that this might lead to some real, positive social change.

[FBaggins]

18. Why? Seems like you disagree with far more of what he said than I do.

Yet you elected to post.

[SpoonFed]

20. Hahaha

This is as close to having "no comment" as you get, I suppose.

[FBaggins]

21. So let's review.

You agree that there wasn't a need to keep people evacuated
andd that the plant workers are safe
and that there's no need to shut down any of the other nuclear plants.

[SpoonFed]

24. Oh dear fbags,

have things really taken such a turn for the worse for the pro-nuke site that you have to start trying to put words in other peoples mouths?

[FBaggins]

25. So you feel free to accept what he says that you agree with...

...and entirely reject what he says that you don't?

Then we agree.

The difference is that the things that he said that I agree with happen to be established facts. The things I disagree with are pure speculation where he isn't in a position to have special knowledge. It's interesting, and he's apparently a smart guy... but I don't find it persuasive.

He continues to believe that nuclear power is safe. Do you consider his opinion incontrovertible, or don't you? :)

[kristopher]

22. Ishikawa's assessment contradicts virtually everything you've said.

I know you are incapable of shame, but take a hint that this is when you are supposed to pretend that it is an emotion you are capable of.

[FBaggins]

23. Hardly.

He makes some statements of fact... and others that are a guess re: what he things is happening.

The first category is fine... and you won't deal with those statements (what a shock). The second category is mere guesswork without explanation. Do you really think it's possible to have a core at 2,000+ degrees yet have the vessel it sits in at barely the boiling point of water near atmospheric pressure? I could see that a day or three into a shutdown... but several weeks later?

[ReturnoftheDjedi]

27. so, once again. you think you know more than Ishikawa.

You have none of the data he has access to, yet you mysteriously know more.

Can't you get it through your head, dude?
You are now and have been wrong about a lot of things.

[FBaggins]

28. Once again. "No"

It isn't surprising that you have trouble understanding what he's saying... but surely "no" is simple enough for you?

You have none of the data he has access to

Says who? There's no evidence that he has access to ANY information that isn't in the public domain.

But you do think you know more. So why the double standard?

You are now and have been wrong about a lot of things.

Can you cite a couple of those "lot of things"?

[SpoonFed]

32. Another gem...

Says who? There's no evidence that he has access to ANY information that isn't in the public domain.

The most naive, yet correct, presumption would be that he is Japanese, speaks and reads Japanese and is currently in Japan. I think he's got more information than you solely based on proximity and comprehension of the language of the primary sources.

That's one piece of evidence that he has more information that you.
One piece of evidence is greater than no evidence.

[SpoonFed]

29. Your endless disbelief...

I could see that a day or three into a shutdown... but several weeks later?

This is a brilliant example of the kind of argument you like to make, day in and day out, and is on par with the lack of quality of your argumentation.

Your nonsense goes like this: "I can't possibly see how this is true, therefore it isn't."

The simple counter-argument goes like this: "You're simply not as intelligent as you think you are."

Without any further information, I'd put my money on a 77yo industry insider from JNTI making a correct guess rather than you, given your endless incorrect guesses at the severity and ramifications of Fukushima from the beginning.

This is exactly your position on Fukushima being at INES 7 now, despite the fact that you can't comprehend how that is legitimate.

[FBaggins]

30. The closest I've come to endless disbelief...

... is that I have a tough time imagining that you'll ever "get it" - despite repeated attempts to raise you above room temp.

Your nonsense goes like this: "I can't possibly see how this is true, therefore it isn't."

Nope. It's "I don't see how and nobody else seems to be able to posit such a scenario". The "77yo former insider" has been speculating about this SAME scenario for almost a month now and none of the ACTUAL insiders appear to consider it compelling. The fact that you guys just discovered him and now he's suddenly the ONLY guy who knows what's going on (except for all the other things he says that you'll just ignore) is hilarious.

This is exactly your position on Fukushima being at INES 7 now, despite the fact that you can't comprehend how that is legitimate.

You seem to constantly require a straw man for debate. You don't see how weak that makes your position look, do you?

Nowhere have I said that INES 7 is "not legitimate". What I've said is that it isn't anywhere close to being as bad as Chernobyl (and it isn't). YOU seem incapable of comprehending the difference... limiting the depth of your comprehension to "Duh... a seven is a seven right? They must be the same!"

I previously questioned the rating error claims prior to news of the significant leak into the ocean.

[SpoonFed]

31. Yep, those who disagree with you just don't get it...

and this guy from JNTI, the pesky reports from TEPCO and NISA that go against your conclusions and distinguished people past and present from academia and the industry itself just don't get it, also.

I've heard it FBags, we've all heard it over and over again. You're the only one who gets it.

*By it I mean a gold star for obstinance.

[mysterysoup]

17. More by Michio Ishikawa on the total meltdowns at Fukushima

About TEPCO's "roadmap":

"I believe what they are trying to achieve after 9 months is to cool the reactor cores and solidify them so that no radioactive materials can escape. But they are just doing peripheral tricks like water entombment and nitrogen gas injection. Nitrogen gas, it's dangerous, by the way.

"What they must do is to cool the reactor cores, and there's no way around it. It has to be done somehow."

About the condition of the reactor cores:

"I believe the fuel rods are completely melted. They may already have escaped the pressure vessel. Yes, they say 55% or 30%, but I believe they are all melted down. When the fuel rods melt, they melt from the middle part on down.

(Showing the diagram) "I think the temperature inside the melted core is 2000 degrees to 2000 and several hundred degrees Celsius. A crust has formed on the surface where the water hits. Decay heat is 2000 to 3000 kilowatts, and through the cracks on the crust the radioactive materials (mostly noble gas and iodine) are escaping into the air.

"Volatile gas has almost all escaped from the reactor by now.

"The water is highly contaminated with uranium, plutonium, cesium, cobalt, in the concentration we've never seen before.

"My old colleague contacted me and shared his calculation with me. At the decay heat of 2000 kilowatt... There's a substance called cobalt 60. Highly radioactive, needs 1 to 1.5 meter thick shields. It kills people at 1000 curies. He calculated that there are 10 million curies of cobalt-60 in the reactor core. If 10% of cobalt-60 in the core dissolve into water, it's 1 million curies."

10 million curies equals 370,000 terabecquerels, and 1 million curies equals 37,000 terabecquerels. I used this conversion table. Tell me I'm wrong! Cobalt-60 alone would make a Level 7 disaster...]

"They (TEPCO) want to circulate this highly contaminated water to cool the reactor core. Even if they are able to set up the circulation system, it will be a very difficult task to shield the radiation. It will be a very difficult work to build the system, but it has to be done.

"It is imperative to know the current condition of the reactor cores. It is my assumption , but wait one day, and we have water more contaminated with radioactive materials. This is a war, and we need to build a "bridgehead" at the reactor itself instead of fooling around with the turbine buildings or transporting contaminated water."



About "war" at Fukushima I Nuke Plant:

"Take the debris clean-up job for example. They are picking up the debris and putting them in containers, as if this is the peacetime normal operation. This is a war. They should dig a hole somewhere and bury the radioactive debris and clean up later. What's important is to clear the site, using the emergency measures. Build a bridgehead to the reactor.

"The line of command is not clear, whether it is the government, TEPCO, or Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency.

"Look squarely at the reactors and find out the true situation. the turbine buildings is nothing but a caricature (a joke, a manga, a diversion)."

The show's host says "But wait a minute, Mr. Ishikawa, you are a proponent of nuclear power and we expected to hear from you that everything is going well at Fukushima..."

Mr. Ishikawa answers, "Well, if I'm allowed to tell a lie..."

Now, Mr. Tetsunari Iida (a nuclear industry critic) speaks, agreeing to Mr. Ishikawa's "war" analogy:

"I totally agree with Mr. Ishikawa's assessment of the plant, and that this is a war. The government simply orders TEPCO to "do it". But it is like the Imperial General Headquarters on the eve of the Sea of Japan Naval Battle during the Russo-Japanese War ordering merchant ship TEPCO to attack .

"The government should appoint a commander. TEPCO has a limit as a private business. No one knows what to do. We have to seek the advice from the best and the brightest in the world."


Mr. Hasegawa of Chunichi Shinbun jumps in, and says "We took the numbers from the government like 30% core melt as true, and went from there. But then Mr. Ishikawa says it's a total melt."


Then, Kohei Otsuka, the Vice Minister of Health and Welfare and politician from the ruling party (DPJ), sitting right next to Mr. Ishikawa, butts in, and warns everyone:


"Since none of us knows for sure the condition of the reactor cores, we shouldn't speculate on a national TV."

Mr. Hasegawa overrides the politician, and says "The real problem is that what no one knows is presented to us every day as if it is a fact, like 30% core melt in the chart."

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/04/fukushima-i-nuke-plant-ishikawa-of-jnti.html

[mountainlion55]

26. What did Einstein say?

Its a hell of way to boil water!:yoiks: