biofuels market battle between agricultural sources and

[kristopher]

...On one side is a collection of small companies, some backed by the oil industry, that are developing the non-ethanol biofuels. Those companies say that the government's subsidies for ethanol are unfairly favoring what they see as an inferior fuel.

On the other side is the ethanol industry, which is eager to expand its potential market and wants the government to guarantee loans for ethanol pipelines, subsidize installation of ethanol pumps at service stations and require automakers to equip cars and trucks to run on ethanol.

...The cost issue aside, drop-in fuels also are attractive to some officials at the Energy Department because they can potentially replace all of the products made from a barrel of oil. Ethanol displaces only gasoline.

..."If we don't start making things from biomass that replace those things, we're going to make life untenable for the petroleum refiners," Bryan said

Full article at http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2011-05-08-biofuels-future_n.htm

[Bill USA]

1. some calculations..

here's some calculations of GHG emissions reductions from ethanol use in terms of equivalent hybrid emissions reductions - compared to J.D. powers estimate of hybrid sales over the next decade.


http://domesticfuel.com/2011/03/22/grfa-highlights-biofuel-reduction-on-ghgs/

"In 2010, world ethanol production was 85.7 billion litres and is estimated to have reduced GHG emissions by 101 million tonnes – a GHG reduction of more than 276,000 tonnes per day.

• GHG emission reductions of 101 million tonnes represents the equivalent of 18.7 million cars being taken off the road"

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/31/electric-vehicle-sales-forecast-to-remain-low/

J.D. Power and Associates said Wednesday that combined global sales of hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles were expected to reach just 5.2 million vehicles in 2020, or only 7.3 percent of the 70.9 million autos expected to be sold that year.

The industry is expected to sell about 1 million electric and hybrid vehicles this year, a little more than 2 percent of global demand, the company said in its “Drive Green 2020” report.

Assuming that hybrids on average will achieve a 40% reduction of GHGs and assuming Ethanol production grows at 4% per year over the next 10 years the GHG emissions achieved using ethanol would be equivalent to removing 18.7 million cars from the road in 2010. This would be equivalent to 46.75 million hybrids replacing non-hybrid cars in 2010. These numbers would grow steadily (at 4% per yr) so that in 2020, while J.D. Powers is estimating there will be roughly 29 million hybrids on the road (assuming a constant rate of growth in sales) the GHG reductions from ethanol use would equal the GHG emissions reductions realized by having 69,000,000 hybrids (replacing non-hybrid cars) on the road (assuming 40% GHG reduction for hybrids on average).

          Ethanol GHG
          emissions       hybrid GHG 
          reduction    reduction avg 40%				
       equivalent cars   Equiv Hybrids		              Hybrid sales   cum Total
      4% annual growth    on road	        	           740,000   
2010	 18,700,000 	 46,750,000 			2010	 1,000,000   1,740,000 
	 19,448,000 	 48,620,000 			2011	 1,179,235   2,919,235 
	 20,225,920 	 50,564,800 			2012	 1,390,595   4,309,830 
	 21,034,957 	 52,587,392 			2013	 1,639,838   5,949,668 
	 21,876,355 	 54,690,888 			2014	 1,933,755   7,883,423 
	 22,751,409 	 56,878,523 			2015	 2,280,351  10,163,774 
	 23,661,466 	 59,153,664 			2016	 2,689,069  12,852,843 
	 24,607,924 	 61,519,811 			2017	 3,171,045  16,023,887 
	 25,592,241 	 63,980,603 			2018	 3,739,406  19,763,294 
	 26,615,931 	 66,539,827 			2019	 4,409,639  24,172,933 
 2020	 27,680,568 	 69,201,420 			2020	 5,200,000  29,372,933 
       

[kristopher]

2. The OP is about competition between sectors of the biofuels market.

The analysis also isn't nearly comprehensive enough to support conclusions related to this public policy issue. What is the result over a far longer timespan - say 2030 and 2050 - of spending substantial sums of scarce federal funds supporting fuels for an obsolete technology (internal combustion engines for personal transport)?

[Bill USA]

3. this was meant to be a response to your comment at link in which you provided link to OP

My bad. My comment applies to your response here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x295208#295209">What do you suggest?


the calculations are not meant to be a formal submission to Sec of Energy. I was using J.D. Powers estimate and wanted to stay with their time frame. Any forcast beyond 10 years is fraught with so much variance risk and have such wide confidence intervals as to be considered a SWAG.


Did you feel the article you cited offers 'tighter' estimating methodology???

[kristopher]

4. I didn't "cite" an article, I posted USAToday reporting on a conflict within the biofuels area

that seems to pit a segment of the agricultural infrastructure against the petroleum refining industry.
Your comments on the other thread have been answered.