Expert calculates alarming radioactive contamination for Fukushima area

[flamingdem]

An expert from the Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan has calculated more alarming radioactive contamination estimates for the surrounding Fukushima area

With Tepco releasing reliable data the way Enron disclosed its financials on the way down, independent experts have felt compelled to calculate and come forward with various estimates of their own. At a recent policy setting meeting with the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, Dr. Tomio Kawata, utilizing whatever reliable isotope release data he could get his hands on (the non-Tepco variety), shed further light on how heavily contaminated the soil is in areas northwest of the plant.

http://falloutphilippines.blogspot.com/

"According to Kawata, soil in a 600 square kilometer area mostly to the northwest of the Fukushima plant is likely to have absorbed radioactive cesium of over 1.48 million becquerels per square meter, the yardstick for compulsory migration orders in the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe.

Kawata also said soil in a 700 square km area is likely to have absorbed 555,000-1.48 million becquerels per square meter, which was a criteria for temporary migration during the Chernobyl disaster.

Kawata estimated the soil contamination using data on radiation levels in the air monitored by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology.

[flamingdem]

1. Comparison to Chernobyl with Cesium contamination

Since this seems to be as legit as the Fukushima-Chernobyl comparisons get, let's pull up a map of the Chernobyl control-zone to get a visual idea of Dr. Kawata's numbers and their implications:

1.48 million Becquerels/m² = 40 Curies/km²

600 km² of area in the Fukushima Prefecture have radioactivity equivalent to the confiscated/closed zones on this map (red). An additional 700 km² of area fit the "permanent control zone" criteria (dark pink), as it stands in Chernobyl today.


Edit: Here's a recently released French IRSN map based on MEXT data. This map breaks down the isotope concentration in the Fukushima and surrounding area:

Source: IRSN.fr


How long will it take for Cs-137 to work it's way out of the environment? Considering the Chernobyl situation further, we can see from the following chart that a long, slow slog in dose rate reduction is ahead for Japan as well. Measurements are in air, with Cs-137 as the main contributor.

http://falloutphilippines.blogspot.com/

[FBaggins]

6. So what's the comparison?

You show a bunch of maps but then don't actually compare? The scale isn't close to the same.

600 km² of area in the Fukushima Prefecture have radioactivity equivalent to the confiscated/closed zones on this map (red). An additional 700 km² of area fit the "permanent control zone" criteria (dark pink), as it stands in Chernobyl today.

For Chernobyl, the comparable figure is 10,000 km².

Let's also not forget that you say that your map is "Chernobyl as it stands today". That's almost one half-life after the accident. So the original levels would be roughly twice as high.

There were an additional 20k+ km² at Chernobyl that had at least 1/3 of that cutoff level.


IOW... this guy's data (which really isn't far off from the official reports) is very consistent with claims that Fukushima is roughly 1/10th as bad as Chernobyl.

[jpak]

2. but...but...but... we have been told this could NEVER be as bad as Chernobyl!!!111

yup

[FBaggins]

7. Did you read the OP?

It makes quite clear that it ISN'T.

[barbtries]

3. the big non-story of the decade

perhaps. thank you for posting. i've still got this and my loved ones, swimming in the Pacific several times a week, heavy on my mind. sigh.

[robdogbucky]

4. Is this the forum where all this news will be hidden from now on?

I was looking to see if anyone had posted any of today's news about Fukushima, then remembered this forum. Do all threads get sent here now, or is it just an accepted thing that after a certain amount of time threads that are no longer popular (is that the reason you all are posting here now and not on GD?)

If that is the case, I will put this story about the UN now contributing to the "rehabilitation," of the Japanese economy by putting out this story in today's news over there:

No ill effects seen from radiation so far: U.N. panel
Kyodo
VIENNA — The U.N. committee on atomic radiation said Monday it has seen no ill effects on health because of radiation released from the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant.


"So far, what we have seen in the population, what we have seen in children, what we have seen in workers . . . we would not expect to see health effects," Wolfgang Weiss, chairman of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, said at a news conference.

"We cannot identify and attribute health effects to these doses," he said, adding that further and detailed data on the radiation doses is needed to say more about the probability of longer-term health effects. In early April, Weiss said the committee would look into impacts of the nuclear accident and compile a report within two years. On Monday, he said work on the report can probably start this summer. A preliminary assessment will be presented next May and the final report should then be published in 2013.

"Our mandate is to look at the source and the effects," Weiss said. More assessments will be made over several decades, according to the committee. Details will be decided during the committee's regular annual session in Vienna this week.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110525a6.html


Good to know the UN is looking out for peoples' safety, eh?



But the Japanese aren't so sure about all that nice talk, per this article:



Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Effort to ease radiation fears in Asia may have limited effect

By MAYA KANEKO
Kyodo

The nation's desperate efforts to ease widespread concerns over its products caused by the nuclear crisis in Fukushima Prefecture have borne some fruit, as important trade partners China and South Korea agreed to take a scientific-based approach for Japanese imports at a trilateral summit through Sunday...

...Since March 11, the number of Japan-bound visitors has dropped sharply. In April, the figures logged year-on-year declines of 66.4 percent and 49.5 percent in South Korea and mainland China, respectively, according to an estimate by the Japan National Tourism Organization.

As for Japanese food and farm products, China is effectively blocking imports of almost all items, with authorities not satisfied with certificates currently issued by Japan to indicate radiation levels and place of origin. Officially, Beijing bans imports from 12 prefectures, including Fukushima and Tokyo, but Wen told Kan on Sunday that China will lift the embargo on Yamanashi and Yamagata prefectures, reducing the number to 10, Foreign Ministry officials said...

..."Instead of trying to appeal to the emotions of (Chinese and South Korean) people with the visual image, Japan should take a logical and reasonable approach and present scientific data on radiation doses in accordance with international standards," he said. Shirai said the government has lost trust globally due to its poor handling of information on the Fukushima crisis, saying it is "totally absurd" that it took two months for Tokyo Electric Power Co. to say that a fuel meltdown may have occurred in reactors at the crisis-hit plant...

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110525f2.html

[Eagle Mall]

5. I see the nuclear advocates avoid threads like this.