Scientists to California Air Resources Board: There is No "Indirect Land Use Change" With Ethanol.

[JohnWxy]

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/partner/growth-energy/news/article/2010/10/scientists-to-carb-there-is-no-indirect-land-use-change-with-ethanol">Scientists to CARB: There's no "indirect Land Use Change" with Ethanol - Oak Ridge National Laboratory Analysis Finds "Minimal to Zero" Evidence of ILUC


The report was compiled by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge lab at the request of CARB, which has appointed several teams of expert working groups to assess the methodology and data that went into California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard. That standard used a controversial ILUC formula which heavily penalized American grain farmers for carbon emissions theoretically produced by farmers overseas.

“This should put the stake into the heart of the bizarre ILUC scheme. Here are some of the best scientists in the country – scientists who have no stake in the game – who found that ethanol had little to no impact from ILUC,” said Tom Buis, CEO of Growth Energy. “We must ask why California insists on going forward with a regulation that is based not just on controversial theory, but a theory that has been disproven.”

The report recommended that CARB update its ILUC calculations with the newest ILUC formula models and data. The study, which examined use of grain and demand for ethanol over a 10-year period, found that increased demand by ethanol was largely met by reallocating domestic uses of grain – and not by reducing grain for export, which is the basis for the ILUC theory.


http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/workgroups/ewg/101410decomposition.pdf#page=23">Actual changes in US cropland* 2001-2009

Gaining acreage 2001-2009:    % change      Change in area
All corn (grain + silage)       13%            4,369
Soybeans                         5%            1,477
Edible beans, peas, lentils     50%              377
Wheat All                        1%              139

.... "Searchinger et al. (pro-rated) 8.3 million ha corn expansion and “sharp declines in soy, wheat…” would be needed to reach actual 2009 ethanol output"



There was a loss in total acres planted in crops .... the most important factor causing this was land development.

http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/workgroups/ewg/101410decomposition.pdf#page=25

[Bill USA]

1. Great info. Science vs religion. I wonder if CARB will pay attention to this?