U.S. solar power industry booms, gains globally

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2011/06/us-solar-energy-industry-booms-/1

Jun 16, 2011

U.S. solar power industry booms, gains globally

By Wendy Koch, USA TODAY

Solar energy remains one of the fastest-growing sectors of the U.S. economy as its photovoltaics produced 66% more power in the first quarter of this year than during the same time last year, the industry reports Thursday.

By the end of March, all grid-connected solar installations generated more than 2.85 gigawatts of electricity, enough to power nearly 600,000 U.S. homes, according to the quarterly report by the Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research.

The two biggest factors driving this growth include reduced equipment costs and a rush to take advantage of federal tax credits that were expected to expire in 2010 but were extended through 2011. While residential installations show steady growth, commercial ones are posting the strongest gains.

"On the whole, the U.S. is currently the PV (photovoltaic) industry's most attractive and stable growth market," Shayle Kann, GTM Research's managing director of solar, said in announcing the findings. He said the U.S. is positioned to nearly double its global market share this year.

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[AtheistCrusader]

1. Careful, someone might come in here and dump on you for poisoning the well

for large scale renewables, by promoting bad economic scale rooftop installations.

Wouldn't want that.

[txlibdem]

4. Some of us love both larg scale *and* rooftop solar

If the "gubmint" is footing a large percentage of the bill I truly believe that dollar for dollar it's better to put "X MegaWatts" in the desert (where it will get stronger sun and fewer cloudy days per year) than to put that same number of MegaWatts in Rhode Island. That would make it a better investment of the taxpayer dollars: far more energy put into the grid for the same amount of $$$.

But the small rooftop solar gets only a 30% federal tax credit (plus any local or state incentives) so I'm not in any way against that.

Don't ask me not to be jealous of the poster, however; I'm not *that* big of a person. ;-)

[AtheistCrusader]

6. :high-five:

I agree. Rooftop solar and wind make sense where it makes sense to the consumer. There are a variety of reasons one might use to justify it, and it's not for everyone. For a lot of people, it's better to just plug into the grid and get power, without any direct knowledge/intervention on the source.

[txlibdem]

7. Ya got me. That's one of my character flaws.

I favor large scale solar only where it makes sense, rooftop solar only where it makes sense, wind farms only where they make sense, etc., with geothermal power plants, tidal power and wave power in like fashion.

There is no doubt in my mind that the entire world could get 100% of its energy needs from renewable energy without going broke in the process --if it's done intelligently. My definition of that is not by throwing money (subsidies) all over the place and then waiting to see where it sticks. Have a plan and stick to the G.D. plan!

[slackmaster]

2. My grid-tied rooftop system has been up for two months, and I already love it

No regrets.

[Nihil]

3. You're part of the boom that they're talking about!

Congratulations (again)!
:toast:

[kristopher]

5. I've seen several investment analyst's predictions similar to this...

This is not meant as a stock tip nor investment advice, it posted as an indicator of the pace of price decline in the solar sector much as the investment analyst's information on nuclear has been used here.

16% CAGR Decline Over Next 5 Years In Solar Electrical Cost Implies Grid Parity In Major Markets By 2015: Exclusive Interview With Ahmar Zaman Of Piper Jaffray

TWST: You believe solar will reach grid parity in most markets by 2015. What are the factors you believe contribute to that?

Mr. Zaman: We think that the march to grid parity has already begun, and we think that some of the earliest markets will begin to reach grid parity at the retail level starting as early as next year. Markets like Italy, Hawaii are among them, where the price of electricity is fairly high at the retail level, and there is a lot of sunlight, so the solar radiance is high as well. So the price of solar panels specifically and solar system has declined over the last few years.

In 2007 the solar system at the residential level was around 8 to 10 a watt. Now in 2011, solar systems at the residential level can be installed for 4 to 5 a watt because the price of solar came down significantly. So in the markets where there is a high price of electricity and high solar radiance, those markets are already approaching grid parity. In Southern California, for peak energy demand, peak electricity prices, solar is already at grid parity. We think the markets with grid parity will begin this year or next year and by 2015, we see an inflection point in terms of global grid parity. So we think by 2015, with the price of electricity continuing to grow, solar prices continuing to decline - we estimate it will decline at a 16% CAGR over the next five years - that most markets in the world will be at grid parity unsubsidized.

TWST: A lot of investors are concerned about subsidy cuts as well as oversupply in the solar sector. But you don't see those as significant long-term risks. Why is that?

Mr. Zaman: We think that there is concern ...

http://www.twst.com/yagoo/zaman3.html

[AtheistCrusader]

8. For home PV, think dual use.

Make the panels interlocking like steel roofing material, and further defray the cost of the PV panels, by using them as replacement roofing tiles as well.

4 years ago, it cost me $2100 to re-roof my house. making the panels interlocking/sealed would increase the cost of the panels somewhat, but bet you money it would be a net win for the consumer, if the consumer wanted to install PV panels. Don't even need an inverter/battery arrangement, if you use it to pump the charge circuit on something like a Nissan Leaf.

[kristopher]

9. Well, the analyst is describing a wider set of circumstances...

...but yes, part of that will be stacking different value streams onto the same product; that is exactly what V2G does. It piggybacks the storage potential onto the capital costs of transportation with very little escalation in the costs related to transportation. It ends up being a win for everyone.

These graphs give a good picture of where solar is headed.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2011/06/german-rooftop-solar-averages-under-4-per-watt