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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-01-06 07:17 PM
Original message
Resolving the energy crisis: nuclear or photovoltaics? (Nature Materials)
Edited on Wed Mar-01-06 07:19 PM by jpak
From this week's issue of Nature Materiels...Nature Materials 5, 161–164 (2006)

http://www.nature.com/nmat/journal/v5/n3/abs/nmat1604.html

Resolving the energy crisis: nuclear or photovoltaics?

K. W. J. BARNHAM1, M. MAZZER1 and B. CLIVE2
1 Physics Department, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BW, UK.
2 Optical Products Ltd, 74–75 Brunner Road, London E17 7NW, UK.

Abstract:

The discussion on future sources of energy is heating up, particularly regarding the roles of nuclear and renewable resources. Using photovoltaics alone, we show that, despite claims to the contrary, renewable resources are capable of replacing the contribution from nuclear energy.

<just the abstract - need subscription for full article>

:popcorn:


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NeoGreen Donating Member (299 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-01-06 07:31 PM
Response to Original message
1. Whatever happend to CONSERVATION?
sorry I yelled,
but geeze people....the day is coming when we'll have no choice but to use less per capita per day.

Conservation is voluntary way to use less,

what's the word you use when you're forced
to use less because there isn't enough to go around?

Anyone, anyone...Buehler...anyone... Rationing?

Get used to that word.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-01-06 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I agree that conservation is the fastest most economical way reduce
energy consumption but...

Rationing??? Not yet - but soon for natural gas in the US and EU...

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Dead_Parrot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-01-06 07:59 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Yeah, we need that as well
But all the conservation in the universe won't cut usage down to zero, so we can still bicker about production whist we do the cut-back thing. :)
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Dead_Parrot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-01-06 07:57 PM
Response to Original message
3. Hmmm...
I'll see if I can track down the full article in the library, but going by the commentary (PDF)...

It's, err, very nice. I'm not sure the phrase "such problems can be solved" entirely lays my mind at rest about storage, and they also seem working on the questionable assumption that we have decades to fix the problem, but it's really well typed. Nice use of shading on one of the graphs and a good choice of fonts.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. Unfortunately, our library only carries Nature and Nature Genetics
Edited on Thu Mar-02-06 12:28 PM by jpak
But I'm going to plunk down the $$$$ for a reprint of this one...

:)
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-01-06 08:00 PM
Response to Original message
5. Not everything published in Nature is true.
Edited on Wed Mar-01-06 08:00 PM by NNadir
A great number of papers are flat out wrong.

H.C. Brown, Nobel Laureate, for instance, published lots of paper "proving" the "nonexistence" of non-classical carbocations, many published in the most prestigious journals in the chemical world but still non-classical carbocations exist.

George Olah was awarded the Nobel Prize for "isolating" the non-classical ion.

J.J. Thompson was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for proving that the electron was a particle. His son G.P. Thompson was awarded the Nobel Prize for showing that the electron is a wave.

No one, of course, would object if the subject of this paper about solar energy representing an alternative to nuclear power were proved by industrial experience, but apparently the claim is academic. No one should think for a minute on betting the earth's atmosphere on the work of one academic who may have no industrial insight whatsoever.

Many academics are completely out to lunch, have no insight whatsoever into industrial matters (and indeed have never held a real job), and live in a rarified la-la land. I have observed this personally.

Nowhere on earth has solar PV electricity produced even one exajoule of energy, after 50 years of academic talk. That is an experimental result that would seem to conflict with this theoretical claim.
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Dead_Parrot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-01-06 08:09 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Google "Jan Hendrik Schön"... nt
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. Please, tell us why this paper is "wrong"....
:bounce:
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. I think it's generally accepted...
that it "can" be done. The laws of physics don't forbid us from installing enough PV arrays, and enough batteries. Or time-shifting storage of whatever kind.

It seems to me that the arguments we have are more about how fast it can be done, and how cheaply, and whether or not it's the best of all possible solutions.

Maybe they have something to say about cost in their paper?
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. I haven't read the paper. Nor do I intend to.
Edited on Thu Mar-02-06 01:57 PM by NNadir
I merely note that nowhere on the planet is there one country that produces a single exajoule quantity of electrical energy by purely solar means.

Right now, on the other hand, nuclear energy produces 27 exajoules of primary energy, and that quantity as we see, is growing rather rapidly, also on an exajoule scale.

Therefore the paper is, at best, theoretical. I have previously provided many examples of theoretical pronouncements about putative energy futures that have proved to have been frankly, rather absurd. Here for instance, is a thread I started in which loads of "prestigious" institutions predicted grand things about solar energy, not one of which, unfortunately, panned out:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=39929

I will be happy to discuss theoretical approaches to energy production when the global climate change crisis has been addressed. Maybe it is not widely known, but the matter of global climate change has not been addressed - especially by solar electricity.

However this is hardly a time to worry much about those who have a credulous approach to energy and the environment. The world is coming to appreciate that wishful thinking is not a substitute for reality. The world is planning lots of new nuclear capacity, capacity that will be measurable in exajoules of energy.

In order to prove that solar energy can replace either fossil fuels or nuclear energy, one does not need to produce academic papers or, again, a long line of credulous people who believe that such papers substitute for reality. One instead needs to produce energy. My own suspicion as to why this very simple fact cannot penetrate the "thinking," such as it is, of some people has to do with a concept called "denial." Denial - famously not a river in Egypt - is not really something new, but it remains something very dangerous, just as it has always been. Denial is something that puts all humanity at risk.

No one, I think, objects to renewable energy per se. Everyone, for my entire adult life - and I am an old man - has been cheering it on almost without rest, at least until the time comes to pay the electric bill. Most people continue to cheer it on. The fact that with all this cheering - decades of it - that its contribution to the world energy supply is still trivial should give rational people every where pause however. Nuclear power is clearly the only readily scalable form of energy of low risk that can be produced in time to significantly slow global climate change, a matter that is widely believed to have dangerous, if not fatal, consequences for all living things.

The unit of significant energy is still the exajoule.

:eyes:
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Whatever. My point should be clear enough.
I generally only read papers recommended by people I respect.

If anyone who has read the paper can produce an account from it of a place where exajoule quantities of solar energy have replaced solar energy, I might be persuaded to look the paper up. Until then, like always, its just more talk.

I generally love to talk, but if there was ever a time to insist on action it is now. The planet is clearly overheating.

People who cannot suggest forms of greenhouse gas free forms of energy that have produced energy on an exajoule scale, and who malign those forms that have done so, are not generally the sort of people who interest me, except when it is necessary to point out the weakness of their thinking, an dirty task which must nonetheless be done.


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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. The point of this paper is clear enough
nuff sed...

:)
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-03-06 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #8
20. Curiousity got the better of me, and I'm looking at the "paper."
Edited on Fri Mar-03-06 05:25 PM by NNadir
Actually, it's not a "research paper." It's a commentary.

I've printed out a copy and will be back with a critique of this commentary, later when I have time to address editorial commentary that claims to understand what will happen in 2023.

Apparently this commentary is yet another prediction of the what "could" be the price of PV electricity (as usual, someday), and amusingly enough, some off the cuff remarks about uranium that are about as dubious of any such commentary on uranium by people who apparently know very little about the subject.

And then there's these fractions as in: "...these cells are responsible for the impressive 57% rise in worldwide PV production in 2004 alone."

(Italics mine.)

Percent of what? Why is it always percent? Why not just cut to the chase and say petajoules or, even better, exajoules?

I wonder? (Actually I know the reason why these issues apply here; I've been repeating them almost constantly.

Finally there is the usual whining about funding, and "level playing fields" for research dollars. If the solar PV industry could deliver half an exajoule for the research dollars spent thus far since the invention of the solar cell in 1954, of course, the "playing field" would level itself. Sadly though, there still is such a thing as "return on investment." A few billion dollars should provide at least some hope of an exajoule, just one out of the 440 we need.

Bottom line: This "paper" is not really a research paper at all. It is an editorial commentary that repeats the usual wishful thinking.

If wishful thinking about renewable energy were useful, there would be no global climate change disaster unfolding, because the problem would have been solved decades ago. Someone should inform Dr. Barnham that the global climate change crisis will not commence in 2023. It is happening now.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-03-06 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. LOL!!
Edited on Fri Mar-03-06 05:31 PM by jpak
Commentary by real physicists trumps pronucular anti-solar bullshit every time...

And I'm sure the editors of Nature Materials would be highly amused by the "commentary" here....

:rofl:
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-03-06 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. Excerpts
Edited on Fri Mar-03-06 06:19 PM by jpak
<snip>

Given the imperative to reduce carbon emissions, a debate is currently underway on the contribution nuclear power should make to electricity supply. Important considerations are the uncertainty as to whether nuclear reactors will actually reduce net carbon dioxide emissions as poorer uranium ores are exploited1, and the necessity to find an acceptable, secure, long-term solution for nuclear waste, particularly given potential terrorist threats. Here, we will address another issue, the claim that the nuclear option is necessary because renewable resources cannot deliver before current nuclear reactors retire. We will focus on just one of the renewables, photovoltaics (PV) and demonstrate that it does, on its own, have the potential to replace nuclear power on the required timescale, even in the UK.

<snip>

jpak commentary: gee who would EVER question whether the nucular fuel cycle is a net emitter of CO2 - real physicists perhaps????

:rofl:

<snip>

Can the UK nuclear capacity6 of 12 GW be replaced by PV before 2023? That is the date when it is likely that all but one of the current reactors will have closed. Starting from the current small UK PV contribution, a 40% expansion — less than that the world managed in 2004 — could achieve this target. A study of individual countries suggests that such expansion is achievable and sustainable.

Japan and Germany both increased their PV production5 by nearly two-thirds from 2003 to 2004. This owed much to the successful completion of their respective programmes for installing PV onto 70,000 and 100,000 residential roofs. By contrast, the UK government has recently decided to halt its 3,500 roof programme, half-way through. The UK-based company BP Solar was third in the world in cell production in 2004 but no longer manufactures in the UK5. The Japanese New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organisation plans7 to increase the cumulative installed PV capacity to around 100 GW by 2030. This is over eight times the current UK nuclear capacity. Extrapolating forward the record of the past 12 years of cumulative PV installation in Germany indicates that it would provide 12 GW as early as 2012 (ref. 8). In other words, if the average trend of the past 12 years continues, Germany will have installed more PV capacity than the entire current UK nuclear contribution well before the first of a new generation of nuclear reactors has produced a single kWh.

<snip>

jpak commentary: 12 GW of PV in Germany as early as 2012??? Monstrous Twittery and Lies Lies Lies!!!!!!

:rofl:

<snip>

The question of life-cycle costs is important in any technology comparison. Nuclear reactors could become net consumers of electricity over a life-cycle if uranium has to be extracted from poorer ores1. The energy and financial pay-back times of a PV system depend on the average intensity of sunlight at a particular location, along with fabrication costs — however, concentrator modules are mainly constructed of cheap plastic. We therefore estimate that, in the presence of incentives like the buy-back schemes introduced in several European states13 — in which the home-owner is rewarded for any electricity from their PV systems that is fed back to the grid — the financial pay-back time could be as low as two years. This makes practical the prospect of solar-powered factories that produce the cells and concentrator systems for powering further factories in a net-zero-energy approach. This will be particularly appropriate for the dissemination of the technology to developing countries.

<snip>

jpak commentary: "This makes practical the prospect of solar-powered factories that produce the cells and concentrator systems for powering further factories in a net-zero-energy approach. " Solar breeders???? Oxymoron!!!! It can't happen - resident experts say so!!!!!!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:


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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-03-06 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. The "commentary" is just more "could," "buy back," blah, blah, blah.
The representation is that this was a primary research paper. It is not.

It says, for instance, "Green proposes that further price reduction, and hence further market expansion, will come from cells that are more efficient - the third generation cells..."

Note that the reference from Green (Photovoltaics, 9, 123-135, 2001) dates from 2001. Five years later the price of photovoltaics is not falling, it is rising.

Good science is predictive in nature. When science fails to conform to data generally it is refined and/or discarded.

I note that the paper contains no serious peer reviewed reference to back up its claim about uranium processing. Instead the referenced link is to an internet polemic, reference 1 is merely this: http://www.stormsmith.nl/ In fact this entire paper, this vaunted reference in credulous terms to a "paper" in Nature Materials with serious intonations, is nothing more than a polemic itself. There is not one original measurement in it.

I am glad I took 30 seconds out of my day to pick the "paper" up. It is, like the continuous misinterpretations of the renewable energy crowd, full of holes. In fact the paper ends with an "appeal to the electorate."

In general, scientific issues are not determined by popular vote. One does not repeal the laws of gravity because they are unpopular. One cannot stop the degradation of the atmosphere, now at a critical phase, by voting the carbon dioxide in question out of existence in 2023.

As for the question of whether anyone should be impressed by the fact that someone is a "physicist," I note that just as there are incompetent doctors, incompetent lawyers, incompetent government officials - there are also incompetent physicists. In fact some physicists garner great respect at one point in their career only to lose it at another, especially when they enter into a sub-discipline about which they know very little. For instance, in 1903, Rene Blondot published his famous paper about "N-rays" (Nancy Rays) in Nature. Up until that time he was a widely respected physicist. Afterward, he was still a physicist, just not a widely respected one.

Similarly Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons, before they announced "cold fusion" were both respected electrochemists who published research in reputable journals. Here for instance is a reference from Dr. Pons entitled "Field-Induced Infrared Absorption in Metal Surface Spectroscopy: The Electrochemical
Stark Effect" in J. Phys. Chem. 1985,89, 2297-2298: http://pubs.acs.org/cgi-bin/abstract.cgi/jpchax/1985/89/i11/f-pdf/f_j100257a030.pdf

Here is a combined paper of theirs before they "discovered" "cold fusion:" "Electrochemistry at Very High Potentials: Oxidation of the Rare Gases and OtherGases in Nonaqueous Solvents at Ultramicroelectrodes." J. Phys. Chem. 1986, 90, 5275-5271.

Merely saying that some one is a physicist, or merely saying that they are a "respected chemist" doesn't necessarily mean that they are right about whatever they say. No. Sometimes they are wrong.

Anyway it was fun. I love this kind of stuff.

My night wasn't entirely wasted. I learned an awful about a type of self ordering system involving dendritic polymers with amphipatic moieties, and then I went and read a fabulous historic report on the measurement of the entropy of volatilization of neptunium fluorides including NpF6 and I learned about the heat capacity of the interesting volatile PuCl4 and its heat capacity.

And I got a laugh out of Nature Materials.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-04-06 04:28 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. I have completed my analysis of this post
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

The poster has not rebutted any of the statements made by the authors of the Nature Materials paper but has instead resorted to silly infantile ad hominem attacks against them.

The poster is free to contact the authors or the editors of Nature Materials and regale them with this highly amusing "commentary".

But somehow I don't think this will happen...

:)

Science is indeed predictive and the authors of this paper predict - using past and present empirical trends - that Germany will install 12 GW of PV by 2012.

Anti-solar activists have NO data of their own to rebut this claim and will be sorely disappointed when these predictions are verified *year* *after* *year* for the next 6 years.

:)

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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-04-06 08:08 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. I am sure that you have analyzed this post in a characteristic way.
Edited on Sat Mar-04-06 08:10 PM by NNadir
I have no doubt of that, since it contains the statement "...by 2012," 2012 being a year in the future.

In science, one does not use another prediction to validate a previous prediction. A prediction is verified by the collection of data and the comparison of the data, data being something which is always historical, i.e. something that has been measured. A researcher who presented a laboratory notebook that had all of its entries dated March 4, 2012 would necessarily be accused of scientific fraud, since most people are aware that one cannot collect data for 2012 in 2006.

I thought everyone knew that. Then again, I am sometimes too generous in assuming what people do and do not know. I thought everyone could tell the difference between a research citation and the citation of an editorial in a scientific journal.

The fact is that the claim about 2012 is not substantially different than the claim about 2000 made in 1994. As noted in my previous post, the editorial in nature makes reference to a 2001 paper predicting a downward trend in the cost of solar cells.


Here is data: www.solarbuzz.com.



Note that this data comes from a website that is trying to promote solar energy. Clearly the 2001 prediction referenced in the Nature, Materials editorial (Prog. Photovoltaics, 9, 123-135 (2001)) about solar energy prices was wrong. Note also that this is data since it refers to historically measured values, the cost of solar cells. The graph ends in March, 2006, just as it should if it is current. Note that the line does not go to 2012.


I have by the way, validated many times that renewable energy is unprepared to address the crisis of global climate change. For instance, I continually produce this reference showing that the world supply of non-hydro renewable energy is less than 2 exajoules: http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table17.xls

I have explained many times that the conversion factor between a billion kilowatt-hours is multiplication by 0.0036 and that therefore the world output of non-hydroelectric renewable energy in 2003 was 1.16 exajoules, garbage burning included.

I have also explained many times the world primary energy demand is 440 exajoules, and that fossil fuels burned in providing the largest fraction of this 440 exajoules is destroying the atmosphere of this planet.

And what do I get for my efforts?

A claim of "analysis," that starts with the collection of data in the future :crazy:

Why am I in no way surprised by this "analysis?"

Look! Look! It's in "Nature Materials!" IT MUST BE TRUE.

:eyes: :eyes:

It is really depressing to understand exactly how poorly science and the scientific method is understood in this country.

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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-05-06 02:10 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. I have completed my analysis of this post
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Interpretation of data should not be left to amateurs

The trend in PV module price IS down according to that plot ~$5.90 in the US in October 2000 declining to ~$5.30 in March 2006.

The recent rise in PV module prices is due to the dramatic world-wide increase in demand for PV that has not been met by the increase in production and by a shortage of poly-Si.

When new poly-Si and PV module production comes on-line (and it is very soon) - PV module prices will continue their historic decline.

And Germany will have 12 GW PV capacity by 2012...

Real scientists agree...

:)
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-05-06 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. The data actually has a minimum, as can be seen graphically.
Edited on Sun Mar-05-06 04:06 PM by NNadir
This minimum closely follows the cost of energy, in particular fossil fuel, minimums and reflects the cost of reducing silicon - which of course involves the use of fossil fuels as an energy source. (It is known as demonstrated in the ExternE reports that the global climate change impact of solar PV power represents 30% of the cost of this form of energy (compared with less than 5% for centrifuge enriched uranium.) The data here is graphically represented in figure 9b of the following report, which is by the way, not editorial in nature:

http://www.externe.info/expoltec.pdf

Since there seems to be trouble interpreting the meaning of graphically presented data, I will point out that figure 9b represents contributions in percentage terms of individually assessed overall external costs. Overall, as can be seen in figure 9a, the overall environmental impact of nuclear energy is slightly lower than that of solar PV energy. Note that the external cost of solar PV energy, assessed at 0.28 eurocents/kw-hr is 50% greater than the cost of nuclear power, assessed at 0.19 eurocents per kilowatt-hour.

Now let's return to the prediction that solar energy prices will continue to decline As noted as is clearly evident graphically, solar prices are not monotonically decreasing. The immediate trend is for prices to increase, something they have been doing since May of 2004, nearly two years running. The minimum, around $4.94 for a peak "watt" (25-30% capacity loading) in still reflected prices that were unreasonable for most persons on the planet. At no point in the Nature Materials commentary is the existence of a price minimum predicted.

Functions that have minimums are not generally recognized as validating models that predict a decrease. In fact functions with minimums, unless they also contain local maxima - which the solarbuzz graph does not - are by nature increasing functions.

I thought everybody knew that.

Here is what is written on the subject of price, again referencing mostly the 2001 Prog. Photovoltaics material referenced by me earlier:

Green has described the future trends in PV by reference to three generations of solar cells each with characteristic cell costs and efficiency (Figure 1.) The 1st generation are the (poly)crystalline silicon cells that are becoming increasingly familiar powering motorway signs and deployed on residential rooftops by farsighted house owners. These cells are the ones responsible for the impressive 57% rise in worldwide PV production in 2004 alone.

For this expansion to continue costs must fall further. This can be achieved by 2nd generation cells...


(Italics, bold, mine.)

Note that appeal with reference to 2004 (and personally I find to use of the adjective "impressive" when used to describe less than 1 exajoule of energy unimpressive) written about 2004 exactly the point at which the price minimum occurred. Whatever "can" happen, clearly hasn't happened.

The "shortage" of polycrystalline silicon is yet another reflection of exactly how poorly suited solar energy is to meet demand - since solar energy is still incapable of producing a single exajoule of energy. Clearly a system that cannot successfully scale to 1 exajoule without experiencing immediate shortages of materials is not in any position to replace fossil fuels - coal alone generated 106 exajoules of primary energy in 2003:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tablee4.xls

Therefore the commentary in Nature Materials is clearly absurd and is not validated in any way. The solar industry is in no way prepared to address the immediate crisis of global climate change; a representation that it is is clearly not an appeal to data or to reason but, as I frequently point out, merely wishful thinking. As I frequently point out, global climate change will not become an issue whenever it is convenient for the solar industry to reverse 50 years of unmet expectations. Global climate change is a crisis now.

I further note that since the external cost of solar PV energy is higher than that of nuclear energy - even in the dubiously suggested case that solar PV energy actually became broadly affordable - the construction of the infrastructure to do so would be worse for the environment than simply building nuclear power plants.

As to the repeat of a prediction to validate a prediction, I have already addressed the question of the nature of data pointing out that data is always historical in nature, since the future cannot be measured. Predictions that are not connected to data especially predictions used to validate predictions are not science so much as soothsaying. Therefore the evocations of events which putatively alleged to be occurring in 2012, is not an appeal to science, and the representation that it is so is clearly fallacious.

Fifty years of soothsaying about solar energy's potential have not validated soothsaying as a scientific discipline.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-05-06 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. I have completed my analysis of this post
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

The ExternE report was written by academics who are completely out to lunch, have no insight whatsoever into industrial matters (and indeed have never held a real job), and live in a rarified la-la land.

I don't believe any of it.

:rofl:

The ExternE group admits there are large uncertainties associated with their externalities estimates...

http://www.externe.info/

"The results are sometimes criticised by pointing at the uncertainties involved. And indeed uncertainties are large."..."Results show a geometric standard deviation of ca. 2 to 4, which means that the true value could be 2 to 4 times smaller or larger than the median estimate."

The ExternE reports a SINGLE value (0.6) for PV from Germany - with no range of values or uncertainty stats...

The range of values for nucular is 0.25 - 0.7.

Others have concluded that nucular plants emit more life cycle CO2 than a natural gas-fired plant....

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,15822495%255E1702,00.html

So how can anyone use ExternE statistics with any "certainty"????

They can't...unless they are trying to pull the wool over peoples eyes...

:)



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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-05-06 07:06 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. You are looking at the preliminary table. The references in the report
can be found in this link: http://www.externe.info/expoltec.pdf

Unlike the newspaper report produced by a journalist that you have linked, which I have not bothered to read, the ExternE effort, involving thousands of scientists working for the European Union to quantify external costs, is a well documented effort comprising well over a decade of work. (I note in passing that very little journalistic work has much integrity these days, and that there are few journalists equipped to understand the scientific literature: This is why so many anti-nuclear arguments rely almost solely on journalistic references)

The methodology of the ExternE is very clear and well detailed. I have no doubt that many people with limited abilities will seek to discredit it, just as some people attempt to discredit other scientific work that is inconsistent with their religious biases. One of the more common means to do this is to point to uncertainty to imply that data should be discarded. This is the strategy of those who deny the existence of global climate change.

The references for the final report can be found on pages 47-49.

As we have seen, in fact the estimates for global climate change's impact have proved to be overly optimistic, although not as optimistic as the claims, over the last 50 years, of the immanent outbreak of a solar powered nirvana. The global climate change scenario is much worse than people actually knew. This is why one must effective strategies to deal with the matter, not pie in the sky day dreams that cannot even manage to distinguish between units of power and units of energy.

I note that if I were to buy into the dubious and scientifically absurd claim that the upper limit of a range represents the likely outcome on which we should base our policy, that at 0.7 Eurocents per kilowatt-hour, nuclear power is still preferable to fossil fuels by a rather large margin. I also note that there is no solar technology demonstrated on earth that can produce exajoule scale energy. Therefore the only realisitic option of reducing risk, is nuclear power, which now produces about 30 exajoules of primary energy.

I note also that the complete final report does not claim nuclear power to be at 0.25 cents/kw-hour. It reports it to be a 0.19 cents/kw-hour. The costs of solar PV energy are not 0.6 cents per kilowatt hour as reported in the preliminary report tables. It is now 0.28 eurocents per kw-hr for Southern Europe and 0.46 eurocents per kilowatt-hour for Northern Europe:

The relevant discussion reads as follows:

Monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) panels of European fabrication,
installed in Southern Europe cause nearly 0.28 c€/kWh, which would mean 0.41 c€/kWh for
the average yield of 800 kWh/kWpeak·a in Central Europe. Assuming improvements in
manufacturing technology of crystalline silicon, improved cell efficiency and an expanded
photovoltaic market, 0.21 c€/kWh has been estimated for future (2010) systems. External
costs associated with imported panels may differ due to different manufacturing technology
and electricity supply. Due to the relatively high material intensity of PV and wind,



For the nuclear case we have:



Nuclear external costs are below 0.19 c€/kWh of which 70% is radioactivity-dependent.
However, if discounting would be introduced, this contribution would strongly decrease,
because most of the calculated damages from radiation are either related to very long term
emissions (e.g., radon from uranium mill tailings) or to very long-lived isotopes giving very
small doses. On the other hand, the present estimation of external costs from ionizing
radiation is based on a preliminary calculation using the Disability-Adjusted Life Years
(DALY) concept, a rough attribution of cost/DALY, and a not complete (though meaningful)
subset of isotope releases from the ecoinvent database. It is recommended to rework the
estimation of damage factors from radioactive emissions in future projects of the ExternE
series. The nuclear power plant contributes 5% or less to external costs from the nuclear
chain.



I note that I have covered a detailed accounting of the external costs of solar PV in another thread, which can be found here. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=38275 Therein is linked an 89 page discussion of environmental impact of solar cell manufacturing and (in this case) requisite energy storage systems. I actually found this report during a review of references I located in evaluating the ExternE reports.

In any case the subject is moot. The solar PV energy industry, irrespective of its environmental impact - which in any case is much lower than the impact of coal - is ill prepared, since it is physically incapable of scaling up to even one exajoule for the immediately forseeable future, never mind hundreds of exajoules. I note that the industry is still compelled to represent itself in units of peak power (as in "12 GW by 2012") rather than energy. This doesn't bode well, since essentially that is a shell game. I note that 12 GW of power running at 20% capacity loading typical of solar PV installations still represents less than 0.1 exajoules. Such a tiny blip will do very little to address the collapse of earth's atmosphere. Since the environmental payback time for PV power is in fact, on the scale of years, the capacity may actually make things even worse.

This is, of course, not, in my view, good news. It would be well if the renewable industry were in a position to do more to address the immediate crisis, and to whatever extent, albeit tiny extent, the renewable industry - for all the gobs of money dumped on it - is able to partner with the more effective, safer and more scalable nuclear energy, it is welcome to do so. No one is trying to stop renewable energy. Everybody wants more renewable energy. However the industry remains technically incompetent to address the popular will supporting it, just as it has for the last 50 years. It is, therefore, in no position to eliminate much fossil capacity, never mind the far safer nuclear capacity.

Essentially the world has acknowledged this reality and is rapidly scaling its nuclear capacity on an exajoule scale. I note that the new reactors that came on line in Japan in 2005, just 5 reactors, far outstrip the new renewable capacity for the entire planet in that same year. That is too bad. I hope the renewable industry will finally manage to deliver on some of its promise, but given its failure to do so for the last 50 years, I would certainly never consider relying on it.

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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #5
13. Multiple logical fallacies LOL!
"Many academics are completely out to lunch, have no insight whatsoever into industrial matters (and indeed have never held a real job), and live in a rarified (sic) la-la land. I have observed this personally."

:rofl: :rofl:

The *tired* *old* Ad Homenim fallacy...

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/ad-hominem.html

***That Which Is Not Now Can Never Be!!!!!****

What horse shit....

The authors of this paper show quite convincingly that this is just plain wrong.

"J.J. Thompson was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for proving that the electron was a particle. His son G.P. Thompson was awarded the Nobel Prize for showing that the electron is a wave."

Gee, isn't this how science works????

BTW they were BOTH fucking right about the particle/wave duality of electrons....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave-particle_duality

:rofl:

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eppur_se_muova Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-04-06 08:48 PM
Response to Reply #5
27. Overstates Brown's objections--he felt non-classical was invoked too often
There was a time when "non-classical carbocations" were a hot topic and there was a big rush to "find" more and more examples, leading to what has sometimes been described as the "rococo period" of carbocation chemistry, as ever more fanciful structures were proposed. Many of these "discoveries" were indeed questionable to bogus, as Brown showed. (In one case, it turned out that redrawing the cation in question was enough to reveal the error!) I remember contemplating a parody (which I never got around to writing) about the "non-classical methyl cation" (ask a chemist, trust me, it's funny). Brown did show that the hypothesis of "non-classical hyperconjugation" was invoked in many cases where it was simply unjustified -- meaning that the surviving examples could then be subjected to rigorous scrutiny to settle the issue, which is good science. Toward the end of his career, Brown acknowledged that some systems probably were nonclassical, AFTER weighing all the evidence, but by playing the skeptic so well, he forced a lot of poorly founded claims to be withdrawn or refuted. (Of course, there's a whole other issue here of Brown, the experimentalist, arguing against the theorists, and the two talking past each other.) My own take on it -- and what I think is found in most advanced organic textbooks now -- is that "nonclassical" cations are often favored in the gas phase, but very rarely are involved in solution, and then only in really special cases. Olah's award, BTW, was for his overall studies of carbocation chemistry, not for "isolating" any particular species or proving any particular point re classical vs nonclassical cations. (The award cited the fact that carbocation rearrangements whose study he pioneered are used on an industrial scale to reform gasoline. Nobel insisted that the prizes be awarded for "practical" discoveries, which hasn't always been done.)

As for the Thompsons, that just goes to show how weird quantum mechanics is, and how inadequate the language of macroscopic objects is for describing matter at the subatomic level, particularly when the ideas are forced to fit the language.

While it is true that many academics are out to lunch, this is true of many *people*, period (Sturgeon's Law, "Ninety per cent of everything is crap"), so of course it applies to academics, and industrialists, too. As for not having "real jobs", that may be correct in that almost none of them get real salaries, but bear in mind this observation from an instructor of many years of experience: "I don't get paid to teach. I teach for free. I get paid to put up with bullshit." And when universities are run by the Registrar's office, not by the faculty, who have to "steal" time from other duties to do research, it's hard to say how much salary would ever be enough. It's sure as hell a "real job" -- I can tell by the extremely high level of tedium and frustration.

Having said that (*SIGH* -- this is why Dems never win an argument), the point that it shouldn't be believed just because it was published in Nature stands. But please don't use that as grounds for an ad hominem screed, against either individuals or groups.
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-05-06 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #27
28. Olah is not "overstating" Brown's objection is this Nobel Series poster.
Edited on Sun Mar-05-06 10:23 AM by NNadir
http://nobelprize.org/chemistry/laureates/1994/illpres/problem.html

Brown insisted for years that the norborenyl cation didn't exist, even after some rather telling NMR results were obtained, including some magic angle spinning experiments in the solid phase at 3K.

I realize that Olah's work was not limited to non-classical carbocations, but his work on that subject was important enough to him to have presented it in the context of receiving his Nobel, and the fact that Brown was wrong on the subject is specifically mentioned in a Nobel poster.

I am also aware of the nature of quantum mechanics, and the point of my little diatribe was simply to point out that in this case, publication of research showing that an electron was a particle did not prove to be the last word. As we know, the alternate descriptions were made by father and son and that both interpretations have merit, depending on the context one is applying.. In this case, I was not claiming that the first Thompson was wrong, only that his description is incomplete. I doubt that J.J. Thompson was disappointed or disagreed with his son's research.

The point of my admittedly hostile post, was simply to explore "the appeal to authority" argument that is represented by the notion that solar energy can replace nuclear energy, because some guys - solar researchers all - published a polemic in a scientific journal, not a research paper mind you, but a commentary. The general case is that "appeal to authority" whether it represents the citing the mere fact that work (or opinions) are published in particular journal, or by a particular person, can lead to incorrect or limited conclusions. If you look at the vague post starting this thread, a google result no doubt, it is pretty clear that the implication that somehow the notion that "solar could displace nuclear" was proved by publication in Nature Materials and that the argument was irrefutable.

I could make "an appeal to authority" argument based on Olah, by the way, since many of his lectures make pro-nuclear energy statements - his recent work is on methanol fuel cells - and he proposes nuclear energy as the source of the energy to make this methanol, something he notes in the addendum to his Nobel autobiography posted on the internet. (If you read the biography, one can see that Olah has worked both as an industrial research and an academic chemist.) Still this argument would represent an "appeal to authority" inasmuch as Olah is not an expert in nuclear systems:

http://nobelprize.org/chemistry/laureates/1994/olah-autobio.html

Note that he also says kind things about solar, wind and other non-greenhouse gas forms of energy, which is, I think, proper. (No one should object to any form of energy that is greenhouse gas minimized - although some forms of such energy are clearly more cost effective, more scalable, and much more safe than others: Nuclear energy does extremely well on this score.)

But as a scientist, a chemist at the pinnacle of his field, and as a citizen, as a human being with broad experience of the world and high intelligence, Olah certainly has a right to make arguments on a subject and I believe he is right on this score, his non-expert status in nuclear technology notwithstanding. The world seems to agree on this subject too. Just last year Japan opened enough reactors to completely match the world wide increase in renewable energy of all forms, the yield of renewable energy of all forms still being slightly more than one exajoule.

I think you are relatively new to this forum, compared say, to me and to my antagonists. You are a very good poster; I enjoy speaking with you because I can clearly see that whether or not we agree, you are sharp. Still you may not be aware of my many faults, some of which include real aggression. The issue of the global climate change crisis scares the shit out of me, evoking some real passion and indeed anger. I despise poor thinking on that subject and do get quite heated at times - just as Dr. Brown sometimes got quite heated about norborenyl carbocations.

Clearly my representation that holding an academic position "is not a real job," is in fact offensive and it cannot be applied to every academic. If you are such an academic, I fully and freely offer you an apology and state categorically that I was wrong. We all know academics who work very hard, who do good work and who bear the weight of office politics and the like as much as any other kind of laborer.

Now I will add a qualification to my apology: The fact remains nonetheless that there are a subset of academics who wish to overstate their authority based on the fact that they are able to impress some subset of wide eyed of credulous freshmen, particularly those at less competitive universities and colleges: We all know the type. And then there are the type who attempt to assert that authority beyond the "Biology 101" classroom, who basically become insufferable arbiters on subjects they clearly know nothing, or little, about because they characterize themselves vaguely as "scientists," as if being a "scientist" confers oracular vision. Sometimes these people are people who have never confronted an industrial problem - who do not appreciate scale - and their vague pronouncements clutter the musings of an already confused and pliable public.

It is not "ad hominem" to assert that a particular individual or even a class of individuals is not qualified to rule on a subject in such a way as to declare his or her statements as fact. Everyone can and should have an opinion about technical matters in which they may not be expert, but the fact is, that in some cases - life or death matters like global climate change for instance - we need to give the experts the ultimate say. Some people must be overruled in any culture for the safety and well being of that culture as a whole. Therefore it is important to delineate what kinds of sources people use in arguments, of what their skill set in interpreting these sources consists, and what the nature of their experience in addressing similar issues is.

In my personal relationships at DU, I have many good friends. I also some fierce interactions with people for whom I have little or no intellectual, moral or personal respect. Often I do let my attempts to do what I have described in my last paragraph - expose types of thinking - stray into the area that could indeed be construed as, or even defined as "ad hominem." Recently I have been trying to move away from this approach, and limit myself more to the facts of the case. But as a human being, sometimes I write here when I am tired, or cranky, or impatient and I do cross the line. Sometimes my work here is better than at other times. I'm not perfect, but in the present case, I do believe I'm right.
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eppur_se_muova Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-06-06 03:18 AM
Response to Reply #28
33. Well, I have to confess...
Edited on Mon Mar-06-06 03:33 AM by eppur_se_muova
my statement that Brown was willing to concede that norbornyl cation could be non-classical was recalled from a seminar, not anything published, and what goes on in seminars sometimes falls to the level of hearsay. Also, the person making this statement was not *necessarily* neutral on the issue: being a theoretician, he had come to the same conclusion as most theoreticians, but he showed the calculations which led him to that conclusion, and didn't seem 'partisan' about it, just let the results speak for themselves, so I took him at his word. I note that Brown's book on "The Non-classical Ion Problem" was published back in 1977, so I can't check that for Brown's later views. To me, it was just one more case of a clash between two extreme viewpoints: (A) Non-classical cations are EVERYWHERE! They're involved in EVERYTHING!, and (B) Non-classical cations don't exist AT ALL, EVER. As so often happens, the truth lies somewhere in between -- the pendulum took a while for the swings to damp down, but it seems to have stopped now, away from either extremum. Knowing that scientific arguments often work out that way, it sorta bugged me to see Brown's 'adversarialism', even if overdone, lumped in with Blondlot and his N-rays. Probably most people outside of professional scientists don't consider the difference important, but to those of us in the field who are concerned about such things (a fraction sadly less than 100%, admittedly), it's a BIG difference. (Parenthetically, the N-ray debacle was partly due to political pressures -- the gov't of France had put a lot of money into starting a new university at Nancy, and the faculty were under pressure to come up with something big. So Blondlot looked so hard he found something that wasn't there.)

Scientists are supposed to have high standards of 'proof' (or at least argument, since we're not even supposed to believe in absolute proof). When a scientific topic comes up on a DU thread, it's hard to remember sometimes that the responses, or even the OP, are not all going to come from people with the same kinds of standards. (For some of you reading this thread, ROTFL is not normally considered an appropriate response in debating the scientific merits of an issue. Please save it for discussions of **'s science ""policies"" (even double quotes didn't seem like enough), or when someone proposes to meet our energy needs with pixie dust, not when they propose an extrapolation from the current situation.) I try to remember that this forum is open to anyone who agrees to the DU Forum rules, and is bound to include people with very strong views about the topics under discussion because it affects their lives, even if they don't know all the details of the science behind the topic. I hope others will keep in mind that this forum will also draw DUer's who are working in the field, or closely allied ones, and not assume the person they are addressing is no more 'expert' than they are. They may demand quite a lot in the way of evidence to back up your assertions.

As regards the original post, it refers to a publication which seems to be more of a "policy paper" than a scientific article (I can't see the original paper, FWIW). I'm at a bit of a loss as to what it was doing in a journal presumably(?) devoted to materials science. And it commits -- right in the title -- one of the worst of sins, that of the false dichotomy, "Nuclear or photovoltaics", as if those were the ONLY two choices, AND(!!) as if they were somehow mutually exclusive. I expect to see that in political demagoguery, and have heard plenty of it coming from ** and his puppeteers, but it shouldn't have gotten past a good scientific editor. A question such as "how much solar energy can be harnessed?" certainly has a valid scientific component, but also leads to policy issues ("at what cost?" "what level of commitment is required?" "what time frame?") which, IMABO, were better discussed in a journal devoted to policy. Similar questions about the science, and policy, of nuclear (BWIM fission exclusively) energy could be asked, but the ultimate question of balance between the two strikes me as even more of a policy issue, not a scientific one, and should be addressed in a policy journal, where it is understood by everyone -- significantly including the larger public -- that this represents the authors' OPINION, not an established fact which would require new evidence for refutation. Passing it off as otherwise can justify some hostility.

:spank: for the editors.

Can PV "displace" nuclear? I think the appropriate response is to "unask" the question. Let's develop PV, and get everything we can out of it, unless and until other renewables render it superfluous. Let's do the same with other renewables, too -- there's no reason for one of them to exclude any other. As for nuclear, I don't like it, for reasons of waste disposal more than anything, and I'd like to do without it. But the fact is we're not doing without it now, and we're not likely to do without it anytime soon, no matter how much we might wish it otherwise. We probably will have to build more nuclear plants eventually. Japan, with very few other options, has already given in to fate on this issue. But I also feel we should go no further in this direction than we have to, and I *hope* that eventually we will end up relying on nuclear much less than we do now. I don't expect that to work out in the short term, but I don't want it left out of long-term planning, either.

NNadir, I have to admit that I had been puzzled by the "vigorous" nature of your opinions re nuclear energy, especially since that seems to run contrary to most of DU, but you don't seem to show other signs of suspiciously "trollish" behavior and resort to argument from documented facts enough to thoroughly disqualify yourself from troll candidacy. Perhaps if I were familiar with your older postings in this Forum (which I've contributed to only lately) I would have realized something which I hadn't until I read this in your last reply: "The issue of the global climate change crisis scares the shit out of me, evoking some real passion and indeed anger." OK, now I see clearly something I hadn't seen before -- namely, that your *overriding* concern is not Peak Oil and a coming shortage of energy, but the fact that even WITHOUT an oil shortage we are carbonating the atmosphere perhaps beyond the point of no return (or at least none within our lifetimes).

Even if these are not entirely separable issues (since both beg for alternative energy sources), you are probably right that the global warming issue is the larger one, and needs to be given more weight than it is currently, at least in "public", if you can call our "democracy" and "media" that anymore. With each new report that "it's worse than we thought", I have to admit that my own alarm is growing, and the longer we wait to address the issue the fewer options, and the more unpleasant the options, we will have. Under the present misadministration, I am afraid that I lot of people -- myself included -- have just given up any hope that global warming will be addressed in ANY serious way as long as this anti-reality cabal is in charge. That's a tragedy, a preventable one, but I don't see how it's going to change with the Repukes holding Congress.

In the meantime, we are almost pathetically grateful for any crumbs which come our way. If we can squeeze out some investment in renewable energies, let's take it, then agitate for more. The US is, in some regards, in a situation similar to what FDR faced in setting up the Manhattan Project, but with a far inferior leader in charge -- we don't know what will work, so we have to pursue every possibility simultaneously, and can''t afford to hold back on any of them. Since Our Glorious Leader can't see that, we have to grab every concession and hang on to it. I, for one, believe that in the end there will not be any *single* solution, but a network of solutions, from which no one component can be removed without overstressing the whole (and that includes nuclear, for the forseeable future). So arguments about developing one technology OR another somewhat miss the point, AFAIAC. We need them all.

Perhaps nuclear energy would be a less contentious topic if the nuclear industry in this country, including its wet-nurse, the NRC, hadn't done more to tarnish its own image than any number of its detractors could. Few things are scarier than reading a list of the violations and errors associated with a reactor construction project -- all the inspections that didn't get made, or were checked off without anything being done, and now can't be done because that would involve crawling around inside an operating reactor -- not all of which make the papers. (Talk to civil engineers about this one.) And that's not even addressing the issue of nuclear waste stored in leaky containers, one of the issues where the public, in the past, made the mistake of trusting the industry's "experts". If the industry and its proponents hadn't LIED about so many things, so many times, they'd be easier to present as an alternative. If we now have to turn to the nuclear industry for help, it's bound to be raise questions about how far they can be trusted (not to mention that it's pretty galling). If a President less obviously beholden to big energy companies were to make the same plea, it would be easier to believe. I hope we can get that in time. I also hope that it isn't taken as license to commit ourselves to further dependence on nukes, or to neglect alternatives to nukes. Under this administration, I can't see either of those as unlikely.
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-06-06 09:53 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. A fair and thoughtful post, although I, of course, have some disagreements
Edited on Mon Mar-06-06 09:55 PM by NNadir
On the matter of Brown, he was a vociferous opponent of all non-classical ions: The controversy dates to a 1949 paper by Winstein on the solvolysis rates and sterochemistry of exo and endo norboranes and for many decades Brown focused a great effort to addressing this specific case.

My remarks were not to imply that Brown = Blondot. Brown was an important scientist whose work has had tremendous import in chemistry, and his Nobel is richly deserved. However, in the context of this debate on this website, about nuclear power, the point is to demonstrate that the repeated use of the logical fallacy of "appeal to authority" represents poor thinking, whether the authority in question is a journal or a person. In his time, Blondot, was considered an authority: I have no idea about his motivations in the N-ray controversy, whether they constituted scientific fraud or self-delusion, but the result in any case is the same: A mistaken notion was advanced, published (as it happens in Nature) and pushed beyond the point of objectivity. Blondot and his coworkers were seeing what they wanted to see, and what they wanted to see was inconsistent with objective reality. It is my opinion that Brown - great scientist that he was - engaged in a similar sort of affair - but to the enhancement of science - and in contrast to Blondot - his objections were elegant and profound, and stimulated a great deal of brilliant research that did much to advance the science of chemistry. I do think that ultimately the point arose that he pushed the matter beyond the objective and into the realm of subjectivity, at some point in this question the matter became connected with his ego and his personality more than the science. Finally the time scale of his "equilibrating ions" were shown to be so short (by NMR), that the energy of the ions became indeterminate by appeal Heisenberg uncertainty. Still, again his arguments were elegant, but wrong. That said, his objections called forth work and progress in important areas of physical organic chemistry: Spectroscopy, quantum organic chemistry, kinetics, synthesis, orbital theory, bonding theory, computational chemistry, thermodynamics etc. The argument was a win for science.

Now, hoping you will understand where, exactly I am coming from, and let me preface my remarks by expressing the high regard I have for your thoughtful posts -let's turn to the nuclear case: I will submit that your "discomfort" with nuclear energy is subjective and less based on reason than you think it is. There is no objective reason to associate support for nuclear energy with even the possibility of "trollism." I am not the only Democrat on the planet who seriously supports the nuclear energy option.

The goal, as I see it, of the Democratic Party should be - and largely is, at least in the DU community - to reject dogmatic and simplistic approaches to world problems. In fact we should all aspire within our party to demand and insist upon subtle and analytical thinking. The problems of the world cannot be solved by the Bush approach, which is to declare blank black and white certainty and to act on it and to expect blind obedience to questionable definitions.

I note with pride and satisfaction that most - though clearly not all - of the inventors of nuclear technology were liberal men with liberal backgrounds and liberal minds. They accepted profound challenges, challenges that were indeed fraught with moral complexity because of their fear of fascism. This is unmistakable. Some had qualms and some (especially later in the deal) expressed reservations, but all acted based on the best information they had. The deal they made - because their work was involved with weapons and not energy sources - was indeed Faustian on some level, but I do not fault them for being close minded men with evil intent. I think history is clear on this subject.

I often note on this website the case for the existence of "nuclear exceptionalism," which is expressed in the supposition that the same issues that apply to all energy should only garner attention in the nuclear case, and be ignored with all other cases. The question of waste, for instance, is not unique to the nuclear case - and in fact applies to all forms of energy, including renewable energy. Yet for some reason the only discussion of energy that ever evokes immediately the word "waste" is nuclear energy. This is patently absurd. Carbon dioxide is waste, and as a form of waste it is the most serious waste of which we know, one that places all of humanity at severe risk, even the risk of extinction. In my view as a practical reality this would be unacceptable in ordinary times, but it is far less acceptable in extraordinary times - which is exactly the kind of times, with the unprecedented crisis of global climate change upon us - in which we live.

It will not do - and if my private email as well as many public comments posted in this forum - to assume that the environmental and Democratic attitude toward nuclear power must be represented by rote opposition. I will concede that this was a historical case in the 1970's and 1980's - indeed my own position for much of that period - but I have demonstrated very clearly that events and practical experience have shown that nuclear energy is the least risky form of energy that exists. In fact, it is safer than existing solar technology, which should, in my view, be obvious if only on a mass balance basis.

Even so, I am not against renewable energy, but I do consider that renewable energy is not cost effective avenues through which energy research should be focused.. It is fine to repeat the old shibboleths about how great renewable forms will be in theory, and to recite "wind, solar, and wood" as some kind of rosary or mantra. This chant is old. I had a bumper sticker that said "Split wood, not atoms" in the 1970's, but to be clear, I had not thought the matter through. Even so, they don't deliver much bang for the buck and as we will soon see, in a short time, bucks will be very hard to find. Therefore we will need to spend them wisely. We can no longer chase after every pie eyed scheme to try to outmaneuver nuclear energy - rather our effort should be to stop fossil fuel use period, using in the context of dire emergency our best known tools of which that same nuclear energy is the finest.

Really the problem is population and carrying capacity, but until we can manage that question we do need to construct a climate that will give us time to control the growth of our species and indeed, to assure its decline.

But that's for another time. Thanks for your comments. I do hope you understand where I am coming from.

However, now I have thought things through and I've changed my view. I am not a formally trained nuclear engineer, but I do own and read high level nuclear engineering texts and I frequently research high level primary research on scientific questions that apply to nuclear issues. I have taken it upon myself to familiarize myself with the chemistry and physics of all must every element in the periodic table that can reasonably be expected to be found in a nuclear reactor. I have taken thousands of hours of my life and devoted them to this question, and I do, in part, because I have children, and that I want them to have decent, maximally safe, rich lives. I have suffered some abuse for this (not that I can't take it - I can - I'm something of a street fighter), but I am not dissuaded in any way that I am doing the right thing.

I believe that a time of great impoverishment is coming upon us, most as a consequence of a dying earth sloughing off its complement of crabs and fleas in fevered angst. I am trying to do what I can to arrest this. These are the reasons I write here.

I like renewable energy, where it works well - and I believe there are niches where it works well, but I am also aware of its history. It cannot produce on a scale we must have if we to survive. I really do hope that it will do well, but I'm afraid I do not support throwing billions of dollars at it. At the end of the day, we will see very little for this money, not enough to eliminate the scourge of fossil fuels that burn our eyes and sears out throats, even as it desiccates our crops and drives crashing flood waters through the streets of murdered cities.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 11:50 AM
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. First rate scientists are aware of the correct use of the literature.
Many people have only a low level understanding of science and believe, with some credulity, that publication in a "prestigious journal" is coterminous with "truth."

Real scientists, however, have the experience of working with irreproducible results of all types, including some published in reputable journals.

The experimental fact remains that solar electricity has not produced a single exajoule. Thus arguing that it could do so is basically an unconfirmed claim.

Theory that is separate from experimental observations is usually of dubious value.

I therefore am proud to stand by my comments in this thread, which again, are obvious to anyone who is familiar with the workings of science.

The theory, if it has merit, and I very much doubt that it does - I do not claim to have read the article, nor do I really need to do so - needs confirmation by experiment.

If the results could be confirmed, it does not mean that the choice of solar power over nuclear would represent a boon to mankind. It is well established that the environmental cost - as well as the economic cost - of solar PV power is higher than that of nuclear energy. In the economic area, the cost is vastly higher.

The world consensus is that that nuclear power is required to address global climate change, the consensus being so pronounced that humanity is acting to add new exajoule scale nuclear capacity.

Although there are certainly irrational people who act as if nuclear power is the problem, the real problem is global climate change, a crisis of immediate and vast consequence.
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. Real scientists are aware of the correct use of literature
and charlatans are well aware of its potential for abuse and a source of disinformation and propaganda.

Just look at ChimpCo's abuse of environmental science..

http://webexhibits.org/bush/1.html

http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/preeminent-scientists-protest-bush-administrations-misuse-of-science.html

http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/191/

Just as global warming skeptics have painted themselves into a corner with regard to the "sound science" of anthropogenic climate change, pronuclar anti-solar anti-environmentalist propagandists are on the wrong side of the political, technical and scientific issues associated with renewable energy.

They are all just wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong....

:)
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 12:27 PM
Response to Original message
11. Press release from Imperial College London
http://www.imperial.ac.uk/P7522.htm

<snip>

The UK currently generates 12 gigawatts of electricity from nuclear power stations, around one sixth of the country's total electricity output. This is the same amount of electricity that it is predicted Germany will generate through photovoltaics by 2012 if it continues to expand its solar energy programme at its present rate.

<snip>

The researchers write that the UK, which has a similar sunshine profile to Germany, could produce 12 gigawatts of solar electricity by 2023 if production is expanded by 40% per year, less than the world increase of 57% in 2004.

<snip>

"The UK is clearly taking a very different decision to its industrial competitors and, I believe, a less sensible one. The sun is our largest sustainable energy source and the technology needed to tap into it is very simple. As research continues, this will become an increasingly cheap and efficient way of meeting our energy needs."

One obstacle to the development of a competitive solar energy industry in the UK, according to the article, is a pro-nuclear bias within its scientific and government establishments. Pointing out that the UK Research Councils spent seven times more in 2004-2005 on nuclear fusion research and development than it did on photovoltaic research, Professor Barnham says:

<more>



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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-02-06 04:30 PM
Response to Original message
19.  Wind power potential of U.S. estimated to be 1.5 times current total
demand. Further developments in Wind Turbine technology will enable power extraction from lower wind speeds - increasing that estimate of total potential. Wind variablility problem solved by using resevoirs where excess energy from wind turbines will pump waater into higher part of reservoir then later when power demand might exceed wind turbine output, hydropower will be generated by water released from higher part of resevoirs. This enables wind power to be greater than 20% of total generating capacity. (THis resevoir storage of power technique is being used in England right now).

Re conservation, efficiency improvements to all electrical appliances said to be able to result in considerable savings (some sources say as much as 25%!).

NOw, regarding transportation and fuel cell technology, there are developments regarding delivery of hydrogen that does NOT involve using free hydrogen. Handling of free hydrogen presents problems leading to very expensive adaptations to deal with safety and production of free hydrogen.

Some are working on ways of providing hydrogen in a safer, easier (i.e. 'cheaper', technically not as difficult) ways. THis means fuel cell technology formerly considered 20 to 30 years off might now be only 10 yrs from being practical. fuel cells using ethanol to supply the hydrogen is being developed and has interesting potential. ONe of the playeers in this new approach is an Italian firm whose owner says Japanese are showing GREAT interest in his product (JESUS! I HOPE DETROIT DOESN'T LET THE JAPANESE OUT-FOX THEM AGAIN WITH A NEW PERHAPS TRANSFORMING TECHNOLOGY!!! THEN AMERICA REALLY WILL BE OUT OF THE CAR BUSINESS!)
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-03-06 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #19
24. Yeah, um, transportation...

...They're called high voltage wires.

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