Ocean Buoy temperature sites document significant temperature rise in Gulf

[philb]

Gulf and Atlantic air and sea surface temperature off Florida and the Gulf Coast increased significantly over the last 20 years (20 buoy temperature sites analyzed).

The air and sea surface temperature was measured by buoys spread all along the Florida Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Locations included Sombrero Key and Venice. Sombrero Key showed an increase in average air and surface temperatures between 1988 and 2005 of 1.46o C and 1.33oC respectively(2.63 oF and 2.39oF). Venice showed a similar pattern with air temperature increase of 0.7oC or 1.26oF. The air and water temperatures were sampled every hour over this period and can be found at the following web page. Eight other Florida buoy sites showed similar increases over the last 10 to 20 years (Cedar Key, Dry Tortugas, Sand Key, Long Key, Fowey Rocks, Molasses Key, Panama City, Pensacola), ranging from air temperature increases of 0.51oC to 0.88oC (0.91oF to 1.58oF) and sea surface temperature increases of 0.18oC to 0.67oC (0.33oF to 1.20oF).

Station SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL, Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center 24.63 N 81.11 W (24°37'36" N 81°06'36" W) http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_history.php?station=SMKF1
Florida: www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/florida_hist.shtml
Nine more of the National Data Buoy Center buoys that had hourly data reported since 1988 showed a similar trend of increasing air and ocean surface temperatures, from Texas to Florida and off the Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach to New Jersey including Savanna, Cape Hatteras, Charleston, Cape May NJ . Buoys 41002, 41004, 41008, 42001, 42002, 41003,44004, BURL1, 42040, DP1A1,etc.

The increase in average air temperature over the buoys from 1988 or later to 2005 was from 0.5 to 1.96 degrees Centigrade (0.9 to 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit), while the increase in ocean surface temperature was 0.41 degrees C to 0.67 degrees C (0.75 d Fahenheit to 1.20 degrees F).

data and calculations at:
www.flcv.com/sstfla.html

[babylonsister]

1. = more and deadlier hurricanes.

:scared:

[Boomer]

4. Nonsense!

Jeff Masters is certain that 2005 was a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season, an anomaly that will not be repeated. So just keep buying that shorefront property, nothing to see here.

:sarcasm:

[philb]

5. Florida Legislature set up insurence fund to promote coastal construction

by the state providing hurricane insurence to construction in coastal areas where private businesses will not provide insurence, including barrier islands of which Florida has a lot.
The program is collecting only 10% in premiums of the annual payouts for damage, so the Legislature followed up this year by mandating that the rest of the state property owners make up the 90% deficit by additions to their insurence.
Any guesses on how much of this the public will put up with before there is a revolt?

Similar for another bill passed this year that says that developers can get permits to build in coastal areas as long as they build adequate roads to provide emergency evacuation access in case of hurricanes- which will surely come.

[kestrel91316]

2. Those buoys are obviously confused. Jeebus himself told me that

"global warming" is a communist plot to deprive our corporate heroes of their profits.

[hatrack]

3. Yes, we need sound science buoys - not these liberal devices!!

:evilgrin:

[Canuckistanian]

7. Give us back the "old buoy" network

Their results were much more comforting.

[One_Life_To_Give]

6. Short time frame

The Atlantic oscillation has been estimated at the value this data reports. So we could conclude we will have another year like we had in the 1930's.

[philb]

8. what is the Atlantic oscillation?

what does it do?


It appears that the buoys with the largest increases are off New Jersey and North Carolina
44004
41001
41002
etc.

[One_Life_To_Give]

9. There are long term oscillations in Sea Surface Temperatures

Refered to as North Atlantic Oscillation or multidecadal oscillation.
The casue of which appears to still be unclear but may tie into the thermohaline circulation.
At any rate the normal temperature variances need to be backed out of the raw data when trying to observe changes such as GLobal Climate Change. The starting point of the data set is during a cool period of the multidecadal oscillation. While currently we are in the warm portion of the oscillation.

Also I would avoid over reliance on any one buoy. As localized effects could distort the data. The trick is to sort out and isolate all the different sources of varience in the data. But if this was easy they wouldn't be paying the Big Bucks to all the researchers. :D

[philb]

10. Do you know the approximate pattern/cycle of the oscillation?

what was bottom of cool period and what was top of warm period? approximately?
what is its typical period?

[One_Life_To_Give]

11. There are papers on the web about it.

A web search should give you a number of good hits about it.
Off the top of my head it was low from the 70's up to around 90.

[philb]

12. Table of temperature differentials off U.S. Atlantic coast- last 10 years

Sea Surface Temperatures
Differential
**************** D0596 0405a96
41001 Cape Hatteras, NC 1.11 1.04

41002 S. Hatteras, SC 0.82 0.76

41004 Charleston, SC 1.77

41008 Grey's Reef, Savanna 1.00 0.82

44004 Cape May, NJ 1.38

44009 Delaware Bay

44014 Virginia Beach 0.43 1.18

41010 Canaveral East 0.46

41009 Cape Canaveral 0.10 0.21

D0596 = average temperature increase between 1996 and 2005

The Canaveral sites appear to have factors affecting them different from the other sites

(the software mixes my spread sheet around a bit)

In general the air temperatures measured increased more than the water temperatures, except for the Canaveral sites

[NNadir]

13. Gotta link? F or C?

[philb]

14. Here's a more complete summary of the Atlantic coast sites, F

Summary Table: Buoy Measured Sea Surface Temperature Changes Over the Last 30 Years

Sea Surface Temperatures Fahrenheit
Differential Differential
D0596 0405a96 D0577 0405a77t80 (1977 was low NAO
41001 Cape Hatteras, NC 1.99 1.87 2.03 1.54 (78&79 mixed NAO)
D0576 0405a76t78 (76 was mixed NAO
41002 S. Hatteras, SC 1.47 1.36 0.97 0.84 (77 low, 78 mixed)
D05a7980 (1980 was mixed NAO)
41004 Charleston, SC 3.18 1.74 (2005 was low NAO)
D0588 0405a8889 (1989 was highest
41008 Grey's Reef, Savanna 1.80 1.47 1.58 0 (NAO year)
D0578 05a78to80 (78 was mixed NAO)
44004 Cape May, NJ 2.48 3.06 1.54 (2005 was low NAO)
D0584 (84 was mixed NAO)
44009 Delaware Bay 2.71 1.67
D0405a96 D0405a91 D0405av92 (1991 & 1992 were
44014 Virginia Beach 2.07 2.12 negative 0.31 (high NAO years)
D0589 (1989 was highest
41010 Canaveral East 0.83 negative (NAO year)
D0589 (1989 was highest
41009 Cape Canaveral 0.18 0.38 negative (NAO year


note1: D0596 = the difference in temperature from 1996 to 2005
note2: temperature differences for 1st and 15th of each month were compared at 6:00 or 8:00 pm and the average taken
note3: the North Atlantic Oscillation tends to bring longer and colder winters to the East Coast during low NAO pattern and
warmer years overall during high NAO patterns;
note4: 1996 had similar NAO pattern to 2005 Both had low NAO patterns

(I also have air temperatures, which changed more but are more variable)

The site software messed my spread sheet up,
maybe you can decipher it. It compresses everything so column headings are in the wrong place.

some of this is on the main web site cited, but not all

[philb]

15. Summary of temp change for Gulf buoy sites

Summary Table: Buoy Measured Sea Surface Temperature Changes Over the Last 30 Years
D0596 D0591 D05a9091 (1990 was high NAO
42020 Corpas Christi, Tx na 0.61 0.56 (2005 was low NAO year
D0577 D05a7778
42002 S of Sabine, Tx 1.87 2.25 2.14
D0584
BURL1 SW Pass, La na na
D05a7677 D0405a7677 (76 was mixed NAO
42001 MidGulf, S of SW Pass 0.91 2.19 2.23 (77 was low NAO
D0496 D0587 D0405a8788 (87 was mixed NAO
DP1A1 S of Dauphin Island, Al 1.89 negative 05 mostly NA 1.22 (88 was low NAO
D05a9697
42040 Mobile South, Al 1.52 1.41
D05a9697
42039 S of Pensacola 0.73 1.2
D0496 D0405a78 D0405a78to80
42003 S of Panama City na -0.09 1.15 0.45 (78 was mostly high NAO
0.81
CDRF1 Cedar Key, Fl na

VENF1 Venice, Fl na
D0594 (94 was mostly high NAO
42036 West of Tampa 0.61 0
D0588 D0345a88t90 (89 &90 high NAO
SMKF1 Sombreyo Key 0.38 2.11 1.25 (most 2004 data missing
D0593 D05a9394 ( 93 & 94 were mostly
LONF1 Long Key Fl 0.47 1.05 0.81 (high NAO years
D0405a96 D0588
MLRF1 Molasses Reef, Fl 0.17 0.5 0.45
D0405a96 D0405a9293
FWYF1 Fowey Rocks, Fl 0.49 0.27

note1: D0596 = the difference in temperature from 1996 to 2005
note2: temperature differences for 1st and 15th of each month were compared at 6:00 or 8:00 pm and the average taken
note3: the North Atlantic Oscillation tends to bring longer and colder winters to the East Coast during low NAO pattern and
warmer years overall during high NAO patterns;
note4: 1996 had similar NAO pattern to 2005 Both had low NAO patterns