Scientists Validate Nenana Ice Classic As Climate Indicator For Central Alaska - ADN

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FAIRBANKS -- Geophysicists are now betting on the Nenana Ice Classic -- not for $2.50 a ticket, but as an indicator of climate change in Alaska. Geophysical Institute researchers Martin Jeffries and Kim Morris began investigating the Tanana River ice breakup record along with temperature data in 2004. They found links between the Nenana Ice Classic data and changes in the local and regional climate. "The correlations we are seeing between breakup on the Tanana River and Arctic climate adds to our confidence that river breakup is a good indicator of climate variation," Jeffries said.

Jeffries recently presented his findings at the Arctic Science Conference. The Nenana Ice Classic began in spring 1917 when Alaska Railroad workers surveying to build a waterfront dock bet on the exact date and time the ice on the Tanana River would break up. Over the past 89 years, the contest has grown into an annual gaming event, the proceeds from which support local charities. Each spring a 26-foot, five-legged "tripod" is built on the frozen Tanana River. A cable connects the tripod to a clock tower, and when the ice moves the cable trips the clock, indicating the exact time of spring breakup.

Jeffries, a research professor at the Geophysical Institute who has never participated in the contest, began investigating the Nenana Ice Classic as a potential indicator of Arctic climate change after reading an article in the journal Science, which highlighted the contest and a trend toward early breakup dates. In the article, two California scientists discussed the possibility of a climate signal in the ice breakup data.

As an Alaska resident for 21 years, Jeffries wanted to take a closer look at the breakup data "to see if we can tease more climate information out of the Ice Classic." Their research showed the Tanana River breakup data matched with periods of prolonged warm or cool air. The findings prove the Nenana Ice Classic is a good proxy for climate in Interior Alaska, according to the study.

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