GAO Report On Peak Oil Due For Publication 28 February 2007

[hatrack]

EDIT

Of more long-term significance, however, two major studies of the prospects for world energy supplies are currently underway in Washington. The first of these is being done by the Government Accountability Office and is to be released on February 28. This study will actually deal with the prospects for "peak oil" -- when it will come and what can be done to mitigate the consequences. The GAO was asked by the House of Representatives Science Committee to undertake this study that has been underway for over a year.

The second and what on the surface sounds the most in-depth study of world energy resources ever undertaken is being done under the auspices of the National Petroleum Council (NPC). This council, a federally chartered and privately funded advisory committee to the Secretary of Energy, was established by President Truman in 1946. Its purpose is to represent the views of the oil and natural gas industries with respect to any matter relating to oil and natural gas. Note the words "the views of the oil and natural gas industries" as they just may come back to haunt us after the two studies are released.

On October 5, 2005, Energy Secretary Bodman sent a letter to the NPC asking what the future holds for oil and gas supplies, can supplies continue to be found at affordable prices, and just what does the oil and gas industry recommend to ensure our prosperity? The issue was promptly accepted for study and the next seven months were spent planning and getting organized. Two weeks ago the NPC released an updated status report outlining the details of just who is studying what.

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What can we expect from these studies? The GAO effort will almost certainly be the straightforward professional exercise we have come to expect from this organization. The study will probably acknowledge that world oil production will peak someday and the researchers, who work for the Congress, will do their best to give a balanced answer to questions of when production will peak and what might we do about it. As for the NPC study, it would be unfair to prejudge something that has not yet been written. Considering its proposed scope and the number of people involved in the drafting, it may provide much valuable new data and many insights into the prospects for the earth's energy resources. It could even turn out to support the idea that severe energy shortages lie just ahead and give a balanced presentation of the prospects for energy during the next 25 years. On the other hand it is hard to avoid noting that several of the leaders of the NPC study have long records of vehemently opposing the idea that world oil production will peak within the next 10 years. Moat notable of these are the study's chairman, Lee Raymond, formerly of ExxonMobil, and Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Research Associates.

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http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=510&Itemid=33

[IDemo]

1. If the GAO relies on figures from the USGS and the DOE,

I wouldn't place a great deal of faith in their findings. Both of these agencies choose to embrace Saudi Arabia's stated oil reserve figures, numbers straight from science fiction. SA claimed an increase of almost 100BB back in the late 80's (along with several other OPEC nations).