WP - William Gray's Hurricane Predictions Not Off By This Much In Years

[hatrack]

MIAMI, Nov. 17 -- The noted hurricane-forecasting team led by William Gray at Colorado State University has not missed by this much in a long time.

Before this year's Atlantic hurricane season started, Gray and his protege, Philip Klotzbach, predicted that it would be well above average. Instead, it has been slightly below average as the Nov. 30 end of the season draws near -- and a mere whimper compared with the destruction caused by monster hurricanes such as Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005.

In a sort of mea culpa by the forecasting team Friday, Gray and Klotzbach said that the late development of a hurricane-suppressing El Niño phenomenon, and unusually dry conditions over the Atlantic, "complicated" their forecast. It was the first time in eight years that they had failed to predict accurately whether a season would be busier than average, they said.

"A variety of factors interact with each other to cause year-to-year and month-to-month hurricane variability," Klotzbach said in the end-of-season report. "It is impossible to understand how all these processes interact with each other to 100 percent certainty."

EDIT

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/17/AR2006111701639.html

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Skinner]

3. Oh for Pete's sake.

I hope you are joking.

[Skinner]

2. I suspect that ignorant conservatives will use this as "proof"...

...that global warming is a hoax perpetrated by the liberal media.

[errorbells]

4. William Gray does not believe in Global warming

>>>Global warming is a hoax

x(

Bill Gray says the recent rash of strong hurricanes is just part of a cycle. This is part of the broader skeptical message: Climate change is normal and natural

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003040068_warming05.html

[kestrel91316]

5. Climate change has rendered the climate models useless.

Gray will have a harder and harder time getting his forecasts right in the future. Wonder what he will think of THAT.

[Odin2005]

6. I think that;s why he wants to deny GW.

He worked on his hurricane models for so long that he can't admit to himself that his life's work is becoming obsolete, hence his denialism.

[Porcupine]

7. Possibly climate change has rendered weather models useless

I suspect that climate modells will still be valid over time. All our current weather models assume ice over the Arctic. That will soon be gone.