EIA Numbers Show Global Conventional Oil Production Hasn't Risen Since 2005

[hatrack]

So, anyway, I was reading through EIA numbers today and confirmed something I'd seen a very brief blurb about in this week's Peak Oil Review.

The blurb in question:

"The EIA update of its world oil production figures through August 2006 shows that a new high of 85.10 million b/d for 'all liquids' was reached in that montyh. However, the term 'all liquids' includes such sources of liquid fuel and tar sands. The ocnventional definition of 'oil production', crude + natural gas liquids, is still showing an all-time high productoin of 81.87 b/d in May, 2005."

My curiosity piqued, I checked and sure enough, here it is.

First the good news - the "all liquids" report:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t14.xls

Then, the "not-so-good" news - this shows highs of 74,015 thousand b/d in May of 2005, a marginally higher total of 74,060 thousand b/d in December, 2005 and no monthly total in the eight months on record so far this year that has surpassed 74 mb/d.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11c.xls

It's worth remembering that though production numbers can always shift, when the Q4 2006 numbers are available, they're also unlikely to surpass 74 mb/d, given that the OPEC cutbacks officially began in the last two months of the year.

Interesting

[phantom power]

1. Part of me is completely fascinated by the thought of...

seeing what happens when this really starts to sink into the zeitgeist. Fascinated, in a "horrifying-but-I-can't-look-away" manner of speaking.

[tavalon]

8. The train wreck mentality

The whole world hit a brick wall in 2005 but the world doesn't realize it just yet. It's gonna get ugly when they do.

[phantom power]

2. K+R for "Peak oil is upon us! Boo!"

[whistle]

3. Time to place high taxes on oil and put in place emergency

...programs to provide alternative forms of power beside burning up non-replaceable fossil fuels. Gas cooled thorium thermo-nuclear reactors comes to mind which are capable of producing vast amounts of power, breed new fuels, convert ocean water to hydrogen to prower autos and replace other fossil elements that are being used up with isotopes cleanly and safely.

[Gregorian]

10. Never fear! Philo T Farnsworth is here!

And it's vacuum tube technology.

You know, for people like us (democrat/energy aware), the next few years should be fun. The most dangerous. But with the greatest results.

[whistle]

13. Ahaaa yes, Philo T Farnsworth, right now our world needs 10,000

...such geniuses

<snip>
Philo Taylor Farnsworth (August 19, 1906 – March 11, 1971) was an American inventor. He was the first to demonstrate and patent a working electronic television system. He also invented the Fusor, a small fusion device. Philo Farnsworth died from pneumonia in 1971 at the age of 64.
<.....>
Television
Farnsworth worked out the principle of the Image Dissector television camera at age 14, and produced the first working version at age 21. During a patent lawsuit against RCA, his high school chemistry teacher, Justin Tolman, reproduced a drawing Farnsworth, when he was just 14, had made on the blackboard at the school. Farnsworth won the suit and was paid royalties but never became wealthy. The video camera tube developed from a combination of the work of Farnsworth and Zworykin, was used in all television cameras until the late 20th century, when alternate technologies such as charge coupled devices started to appear.

Farnsworth developed the "Image Oscillite", a cathode ray tube receiver that could display images captured by the Image Dissector.


Fusor
The Farnsworth-Hirsch Fusor, or simply fusor, is an apparatus designed by Farnsworth to create nuclear fusion. Unlike most controlled fusion systems, which slowly heat a magnetically confined plasma, the fusor injects high temperature ions directly into a reaction chamber, thereby avoiding a considerable amount of complexity.

When Farnsworth-Hirsch Fusor was first introduced to the fusion research world in the late 1960s, the Fusor was the first device that could clearly demonstrate it was producing any fusion reactions at all. Hopes at the time were high that it could be quickly developed into a practical power source. However, as with other fusion experiments, development into a power source has proven difficult. Nevertheless, the fusor has since become a practical neutron source and is produced commercially for this role.
<MORE>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philo_Farnsworth

[Gregorian]

14. I know someone who has his wife's autograph.

My cat's name is Farnsworth.

Energy has been an interest of mine for many years.

I'm really banking on this latest fusion configuration by Dr. Bussard.

[FogerRox]

17. DR Bussard has my attention

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/28/15328/187

ANd my D-Kos Post couls use some too.....

[Gregorian]

19. I missed your Dkos post. Thank you.

I have just pulled it up to look at. I'm very interested. And from preliminary Googling, there isn't a lot of information on Dr. Bussard's project.

I haven't been this energetic about anything in a long time.


Edit- Well, that wasn't exactly a warm reception as I would have expected, over at Kos. Huh. I'm still just starting my learning on this particular fusion. We'll see...

[FogerRox]

20. Apparently the Univ of W @ Madison

Is where Bussard was a few yrs ago. Bussard & HIrsch are the fathers of the Tokomak, they went to COngress in the late 1970's to get the 18 billion for the 1st Tokomak reactor. They both now aschue the Tokomak design.

[brokensymmetry]

4. K&R. Very interesting indeed.

I think 2007 - 2008 will mark a change...

[hunter]

5. Enjoy the view from the top of the roller coaster...

Don't mind there's no track below...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY4X-DNS0gU

[Dead_Parrot]

6. So long as I get a free balloon, I'll be happy. nt

[Dogmudgeon]

7. Make mine a balloon filled with nitrous oxide

The way we're going, we're going to be needing plenty of anesthetizing, and soon.

Of course, we could commit ourselves to a crash program of energy and environmental development and sanity, but what fun would that be? After all, you can't manipulate people as easily if they're happy and healthy.

We've spent nearly a trillion bucks on a recreational war, but we're suffocating scientific progress and ghettoizing energy development.

There will be no pity.

--p!

[Nordmadr]

9. This sure gives a strong indication that we are very close,

if not at, peak oil when it comes to conventional supplies. Expect to see fuel costs begin their wild ride back up.

It strikes me as amazingly arrogant in some ways that we as a culture seem to simply think that we can choose what is reality; when in fact, reality is about to choose us.

That 2005 peak will have a resonating impact very soon, combined with the changing climate, we are going to be wishing we had paid better attention.

Olafr

[rman]

12. "seem to simply think that we can choose what is reality"

It's one of the primary "convenient myths":


"Modern industrial civilization has developed within a certain system of convenient myths. The driving force of our industrial civilization has been individual material gain, which is accepted as legitimate, even praiseworthy on the grounds that private vices yield public benefits, in the classic formulation. Now it's long been understood, very well, that a society that is based on this principle will destroy itself in time. It can only persist with whatever suffering and injustice it entails, as long as it's possible to pretend that the destructive forces that humans create are limited, that the world is an infinite resource, and that the world is an infinite garbage can."
-- Noam Chomsky
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent:_Noam_Chomsky_and_the_Media
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Herman%20/Manufacturing_Consent.html
http://youtube.com/watch?v=KSxYEzSpFdc

[Nordmadr]

16. The sticker in the center of my rear window on my car

reads:

Unlimited Growth in a Limited World
is not a Sign of Success.

So, so true.

Olafr

[spillthebeans]

11. I 'm so thankful to Texaco,Chevron, Mobil &Co.

http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/energy/fs/5104.pdf

As observed over the last few years and as projected well into the future, the most critical factor facing the refining industry on the West Coast is the surplus refining capacity, and the surplus gasoline production capacity. ( The same situation exists for the entire U.S. refining industry) Supply significantly exceeds demand year-round. This results in very poor refinery margins, and very poor financial results. Significant events need to occur to assist in reducing supplies and/or increasing the demand for gasoline. One example of asignificant event would be the elimination of mandates for oxygenate addition to gasoline. Given a choice.oxygenate usage would go down. and gasoline supplies would go don accordingly.
(Much effort is being exerted to see this happen in the Pacific Northwest)

http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/energy/fs/5105.pdf
http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/energy/fs/5103.pdf

http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/energy/fs/

[NickB79]

15. There's absolutely no way anyone could have seen this coming

I mean, who would have ever thought that a non-renewable resource of limited availability that countries have fought wars over in the past few decades would run out? :sarcasm:

[FogerRox]

18. Who would ahve thought they would fly airplanes into buildings...

LOL