China to become world's largest wind power producer

[jpak]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-01/16/content_5612255.htm

BEIJING, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- China is expected to overtake Germany and the United States to become the world's largest wind power producer by 2020, a report forecast.

The 2006 Annual Report on China's New Energy Industry says that the 10th Five-Year Plan (2000-2005) period saw a rapid development of wind power industry, with the installed capacity rose by 30 percent on an annual average, rising from 350,000 kw in 2000 to 1.26 million kw in 2005, ranking 7th in the world.

The report quotes a prediction by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)that the total wind power installed capacity in China will probably reach 150 million kw in 2020, making China one of the world's major wind power markets.

As a country with long coastal lines and abundant wind power resources, China boasts of wind power resources of 3.2 billion kw, of which one billion kw can be developed, according to the report.

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[BayCityProgressive]

1. This is good

I applaud China for this.

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. This makes sense for them. It is cheaper than bringing in fossil fuels from

outside the country.

[Double T]

3. China is taking over the leadership role in the world............

abundant renewable energy with zero emissions, great job!!! If the jerks in the WH would stop protecting the big oil and energy companies, perhaps 'WE' could have an abundance of renewable energy sources.

[BayCityProgressive]

4. They also

unionized walmart and are reinstating universal healthcare. Why are we not doing this?

[cdnwannabe]

5. Because it's socialism to "them"....

and we can't have that, can we? Actually, most conservatives I know call it communism...

[Double T]

6. answer: our corrupt government directed by k street criminals......

for the corrupt corporations and the even more corrupt wall street 'traitors'.

[Deep13]

7. And I thought the world's largest wind producer was Bill O'Reilly.

:shrug:

[Hoosier Dem]

8. Not sure if that's wind or just plain hot air.

[valerief]

12. LOL! Yeah, he does break a lot of wind from his piehole. nt

[GliderGuider]

9. Time to crunch some numbers

According to this site China currently gets a minuscule fraction of a percent of their electricity from renewables. This addition of wind capacity might move that to a couple of percent except for the uncomfortable fact that their continued economic expansion will require a commensurate scaling of all other electrical sources as well. We all know what their primary electrical energy source is - they will probably be burning 3 billion tonnes of coal in 2020, which will still amount to 80% of their electrical requirements.

I see nothing to cheer about in this announcement.

[madrchsod]

10. in the rural areas they use high sulfur coal

for heating homes and business. yes there is`t much to cheer about since we live "downwind" of china. canada and the usa could build enough wind mills across the grand prairie to supply a huge amount of energy needs will we? there`s over a thousand turbines built or being built in northern and central illinois so maybe we will..

[jpak]

13. Yes - 150 million kW of wind generating capacity by 2020 is nothing to cheer about

:eyes:

[GliderGuider]

14. Glad we agree...

Though you really should acknowledge that the figure of 150 GW appears to be nameplate capacity. Compared to their of their probable 1,000 GW of overall generating capacity by 2020, the 50 GW added by wind is truly peanuts.

By all means we should applaud, but let's keep this in perspective.

On edit: Just to be clear, I know we don't agree on this issue. The title is just a gently ironic recognition of that fact.

[jpak]

15. Only on the DU E&E forum is 50 G"W" of wind capacity "peanuts"

:evilgrin:

[GliderGuider]

16. As Einstein said when he was asked if he liked his sister...

"Everything is relative!"

Yes, 50 GW of wind power is huge. It's just that total electricity consumption is huger, and wind doesn't appear to be growing fast enough to do much good by the time it's really needed. Unless the entire world goes seriously exponential with new wind capacity at the same time. Will we?

The world burns almost 6 billion tonnes of coal every year. This equates to somewhere around 3,000 GW of coal-fired generation capacity. Total global wind nameplate capacity is 50 GW at the moment - let's say that gives us 20 GW of actual generation. Last year the global wind generating capacity expanded by 24%. If we can keep up that pace for the next 14 years we will end up with 500 GW of actual capacity. In the meantime coal will have expanded by around 5% per year to provide 6,000 GW. We will have succeeded in taking wind from under 1% to about 8% of coal's contribution. While that's nothing to sneeze at, it will not slow down CO2 generation one whit, and that's the point of the exercise.

Can we maintain a 25% pa growth in the wind industry for 14 years? I don't know - maybe, but it looks like a tall order to me.

[jpak]

19. 50 G"W" of new Chinese wind capacity is more than China has planned for new nuclear capacity

The Chinese will build "only" 30 new reactors by 2020 - "only" 27 G"W" of real capacity (at most).

So I guess it is all relative...

:evilgrin:

[GliderGuider]

20. So they're putting all their effort into coal then?

70% of their electricity is coal-generated. They will probably build out 350 GW of coal-fired capacity by 2020. It doesn't look like they're planning to change the mix that much.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/GJ07cb01.html

[jpak]

21. China's rapid economic growth is unsustainable and they are going to have to deal

with coal plant air and water pollution (or they will end up like London in 1952).

When their economic growth slows and the real environmental impacts of coal have to be dealt with, growth in Chinese coal-fired power plants will be cut back - way back.

[GliderGuider]

22. That I agree with, without reservation.

I think China has come too late to the industrialization party. They will hit the wall of pollution and energy shortages within the next decade.

[phantom power]

17. What number are we comparing against?

Relative to what my house uses, 50GW is enormous. Relative to what the nation of China uses, it's... not so much.

On a tangent, these predictions appear to be made without any consideration of the acceleration of peak oil and climate change. So I'm not sure they're applicable to what the world will "really" be like in 2020.

[GliderGuider]

18. "these predictions appear to be made without any consideration of..."

Aye, there's the rub. There are so many diverse problems with imponderable interactions swirling around the globe right now, that even medium term predictions in a single domain are really a mug's game. What happens if... what happens if... what happens if... ?

[Dead_Parrot]

23. Only in the world of the blind optimist is it significant

China uses about 40 EJ per year: 50GW of wind power will produce about 0.4 EJ, or about 1%. For reference, their energy demands grow by that much every 3 months or so.

[jpak]

24. and 30 GW of new Chinese nuclear is even less

but don't tell the blind optimists that...

BTW, the richest man in China makes PV modules - go figure...

[Dead_Parrot]

25. Well no, it's about twice as much

but I know you have problems understanding the difference between peak capacity and power actually produced, so we'll skip that one.

But you're right, they need a lot more of both nuclear and renewables to make any dent in thier coal use.

[jpak]

26. The *name plate* wind capacity is 150 GW, which, as we all know, is only 50 G"W"

Which is about 2 times the 27 G"W" of new chinese nuclear capacity.

Get with the plan man...

:evilgrin:

[Dead_Parrot]

27. That's because I'm a dumbass

By the time I hit reply, I'd forgotten what the OP said. :dunce:

I blame GG's post 15 for getting the wrong figure in my head.

(Although it's still less than a years increase :P)

[valerief]

11. Maybe someday China will liberate us. nt