This is in response to the full comment by JohnF
http://www.growthmadness.org/2007/04/20/when-environmental-writers-are-part-of-the-problem/#comment-1027">here
Yes, you have understood my argument correctly: petroleum was the primary factor in raising the earth’s carrying capacity over the last 100 years, and as oil supplies decline our expanded population will find itself driving deeper and deeper into overshoot, with the usual consequences. My position is that humane measures will not reduce the population to match the earth’s oil-free carrying capacity. This will require a frank reduction in population in a short time that will far exceed the current natural death rate. I’ll go so far as to say that even inhumane measures such as nuclear war will probably not suffice, because one-time death tolls in the tens or even hundreds of millions will not be sufficiently corrective. IMO, only the traditional natural remedies of famine and disease will have enough power.
I put the sustainable population at a billion and the time frame at 75 years in my model. Even if I’m off by 100%, and the number turns out to be two billion and the time frame is 100 years, it really doesn’t alter the essential drama all that much.
I think that we will strive mightily to produce alternative energy sources to maintain the carrying capacity, but I am convinced we will ultimately fail. This is due to issues of scale (no alternatives we have come up with so far come within an order of magnitude of the energy required), issues of utility (oil is so multi-talented that it would take a large number of products and processes to fully replace it), issues of unintended consequences (as is currently being recognized with biofuels) and issues of human behaviour (a lack of international cooperation is predicted by The Prisoner’s Dilemma, and comfort-seeking, competition for personal advantage and a hyperbolic discount function are planted deep in the human genome as explained in Reg Morrison’s “The Spirit in the Gene” and in
my article on Hyperbolic Discount Functions.
While there are not many of us out here sounding the dieoff alarm just yet, I am by no means alone. Jay Hanson is a well-known proponent, and his site
http://www.dieoff.org has accumulated a large number of papers by such luminaries as Albert Bartlett, Garrett Hardin and David Pimentel. Rather than try to précis this impressive body of work, I’ll commend to you one page that addresses most of the same issues I do:
http://dieoff.org/page171.htm. The rest of that site is invaluable for considering the population problem from a variety of perspectives.
On the question of whether fertility reductions alone can achieve a sufficiently soft landing, I’m not aware of any papers that would directly support my pessimistic conclusion. This is primarily because the analysts I’ve read have failed to grasp a key set of fundamentals: first, the link between petroleum and carrying capacity; second, the imminence of Peak Oil; third, the possibility of a rapid decline in post-peak oil supply (starting at 2% per year and ramping up to 10-20% per year over the course of twenty years), fourth, industrial agribusiness’ utter dependence on petroleum for yield maintenance. The failure to put this puzzle together has lulled most population commentators into a false sense of security regarding time frame and carrying capacity, and has hobbled their analysis. IMNSHO, of course.
The “Green Revolution” which is held out as the mitigator of this dire trajectory is a chimera. First off, let’s drop that greenwashing naming pretense, and call it what it is: industrial agribusiness. This travesty is supported by the tripod of mechanization, pesticides/fertilizers and genetic engineering. Of those three legs, the first two are directly dependent on petroleum. Genetic engineering generally has four goals: drought resistance, insect resistance, pesticide resistance and yield enhancement. That last factor invariably requires mechanical irrigation, which again depends on oil.
Ironically, industrial agribusiness may provide one mechanism for a much-needed fertility reduction. This is coming about because of the unholy stew of pesticides, fertilizers and industrial chemicals (not to mention traces of pharmaceuticals) in which we are marinating ourselves. The mutagenic, teratogenic, carcinogenic, endocrine-disruptive and especially fertility-disruptive effects of these chemicals, alone and in combinations are just now being urgently recognized. As the slyly-named “Green Revolution” is pushed into Africa by well-meaning but clueless idiots like Bill and Melinda Gates we can expect these unintended consequences to follow obediently along.
Balancing this effect and in my opinion much more significant is the fact that much of the Muslim world has an extremely young population. One estimate I just read was that in the Arab oil-producing world fully half of the population is under the age of 15. There can be no starker illustration of the collision of population and Peak Oil than that. I doubt that family planning will penetrate very far into these ultra-religious nations. The only thing that may constrain their future fertility is if
Virginia Abernethy was right, and that people do restrain their fertility as their economic opportunities contract.
I agree that we must do what we can to soften the blow. Mainly that involves reducing the incentive to reproduce by whatever means are available. Taking this position to its logical conclusion, though, can lead to such interesting outcomes as opposing micro-credit – that shibboleth of liberal multicultural empathy – on the grounds that it encourages reproduction among those who will be at first risk in the coming collapse. That’s an antinomious conflict between head and heart if ever there was one.
My main reason for supporting efforts to soften the blow comes from my understanding of the idea of
adaptive cycles. While we share characteristics with yeast (we overshoot and die off) we are also a bit like cockroaches – you can’t kill us all. There will eventually be a resurgence of some form of society from the rubble of this one, and it’s our duty to make sure they have the knowledge, resources and opportunity to survive and enjoy what remains of the world.
Talking about the elephant is the first, crucial step.
Paul