A Metal Scare to Rival the Oil Scare

[question everything]

May 25, 2007, 10:17 am
A Metal Scare to Rival the Oil Scare
From the WSJ Informed Reader

IndiumIndium, gallium and hafnium are some of the least-known elements on the periodic table, but New Scientist warns that reserves of these low-profile minerals and others like them might soon be exhausted thanks to the demand for flat screens and other high-tech goods. Scientists who have tried to estimate how long the world’s mineral supply can meet global demand have made some gloomy predictions.

Armin Reller, a materials chemist at the University of Augsburg in Germany, estimates that in 10 years the world will run out of indium, used for making liquid-crystal displays for flat-screen televisions and computer monitors. He also predicts that the world will run out of zinc by 2037, and hafnium, an increasingly important part of computer chips, by 2017.

Researchers worry that a supply crunch in some metals and minerals could kill off promising new technologies. René Kleijn, a chemist at Leiden University in the Netherlands, says that a new design for solar panels that would make them twice as efficient as most current panels might not get built for lack of gallium and indium. Estimates of reserves vary widely, and scientists say it is difficult in some cases to accurately forecast demand, says New Scientist’s David Cohen. What’s more, it is possible that demand for some metals will plateau. Tom Graedel, a professor of industrial ecology at Yale University, found that per capita consumption of iron leveled off around 1980, suggesting that at some point people in technologically advanced societies might only need so much of any one metal. But Prof. Graedel notes that this hasn’t been the case with copper, a crucial component of wiring and computer chips. He predicts that by 2100, global demand for copper might outstrip mineable supplies.

If the most dire predictions are true, recycling of rare metals will be the only way to manufacture some gadgets and machines as demand grows in the developing world. Mr. Kleijn says that a lot of copper could be freed up by replacing cities’ copper pipes with plastic ones. Hazel Prichard, a geologist at the University of Cardiff in the United Kingdom, also is developing ways to extract platinum, a vital component in catalytic converters and fuel cells, from the dust and grime of city streets. Apparently, urban grit contains 1.5 parts per million of platinum.

— Robin Moroney


http://blogs.wsj.com/informedreader/2007/05/25/a-metal-scare-to-rival-the-oil-scare/ (subscription)

And the New Scientist link, also for subscribers only, except for the first three paragraphs

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19426051.200-earths-natural-wealth-an-audit.html

[depakid]

1. Those pesky laws of thermodynamics

apply to materials as well.

[Parche]

2. Metal

This Metal is getting rare due to the amount of people
realizing that the GW Bush admin is full of SH*T
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[phaseolus]

3. Well, there's always the ocean floor...

...where all sorts of things come up from the mantle. We don't even know what's down there. Minable mineral deposits on land are associated with geothermal activity, where water reaching the mantle bubbles back up with whatever it finds down there. The ocean floor's full of spreading centers bringing up new material from down below.

On the other hand there's the difficulty of prospecting, of getting things off the ocean floor once you've found something worthwhile... and the whole ecological catastrophe thing you get with any mining.

Maybe we could all turn Amish? All we'd need is water, alfalfa, dirt, and timber...

[skids]

4. Supplies...

...I am skeptical of many such claims in that they very often only consider existing sources for a mineral. Since the first sources for a mineral are usually as a byproduct of some other industrial process, there is a "crunch" in supply when the need exceeds that supply, but once it does it becomes profitable to seek out specific sources for the mineral.

Anyway here's what wikipedia says about Indium and Gallium:

Indium is produced mainly from residues generated during zinc ore processing but is also found in iron, lead, and copper ores. The amount of indium consumed is largely a function of worldwide LCD production. Increased manufacturing efficiency and recycling (especially in Japan) maintain a balance between demand and supply. The average indium price for 2005 was US$900 per kilogram. This is unusually high. Demand increased as the metal is used in LCDs and televisions, and supply decreased when a number of Chinese mining concerns stopped extracting indium from their zinc tailings. In 2002, the price was US$94/kg.

Up until 1924, there was only about a gram of isolated indium on the planet. The Earth is estimated to contain about 0.1 ppm of indium which means it is about as abundant as silver, although indium is in fact nearly three times more expensive by weight. Canada is a leading producer of indium. The TeckCominco refinery in Trail, BC, is the largest single source, with production of 32,500 kg in 2005, 41,800 kg in 2004 and 36,100 kg in 2003. Worldwide production is typically over 300 tonnes per year, but demand has risen rapidly with the increased popularity of LCD computer monitors and televisions.

...

Gallium does not exist in free form in nature, nor do any high-gallium minerals exist to serve as a primary source of extraction of the element or its compounds. Gallium is found and extracted as a trace component in bauxite, coal, diaspore, germanite, and sphalerite. The United States Geological Survey (USGC) estimates gallium reserves based on 50 ppm by weight concentration in known reserves of bauxite and zinc ores. Some flue dusts from burning coal have been shown to contain as much as 1.5 percent gallium.

Most gallium is extracted from the crude aluminium hydroxide solution of the Bayer process for producing alumina and aluminum. A mercury cell electrolysis and hydrolysis of the amalgam with sodium hydroxide leads to sodium gallate. Electrolysis then gives gallium metal. For semiconductor use, further purification is carried out using zone melting, or else single crystal extraction from a melt (Czochralski process). Purities of 99.9999% are routinely achieved and commercially widely available.

As of 2006, the current price for 1 kg gallium of 99.9999% purity seems to be at about 400 US$.

[Delphinus]

5. Funny you would bring this up today ...

on the way home today, on Science Friday on NPR, there was a scientist from Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana talking about using aluminum, gallium, and water to make a "fuel" for automobiles.

He said we had a great supply of aluminum, which made me ask, why then is it so expensive?

[Dead_Parrot]

6. That's mainly due to the energy needed

Smelting aluminium - from alumina, not recycled metal - takes something like 50 MJ/KG (~15 kWh, if that helps). That's quite a lot of juice, and makes up a fair chunk of the price.

Recycling takes something like 10% of that, but of course there's a limit supply there.