Lack of Access Muddies Death Toll in Darfur

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Estimates Vary Widely as Sudan Stalls U.N. Effort for Regional Mortality Study

by Colum Lynch
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, February 8, 2005; Page A20

UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 7 -- Sudan is stalling efforts by the United Nations to survey death rates in Darfur, contributing to confusion over the number of people who have died since a government-backed Arab militia launched a bloody counterinsurgency campaign nearly two years ago against the region's black villagers, according to U.N. officials.

The conflict has produced widely varied estimates of the death toll in Darfur, with the United Nations estimating that as many as 70,000 displaced Darfuris died between March and October 2004 and some outside analysts suggesting more than 400,000 have been killed or perished from disease or malnutrition since the violence began in February 2003.

The "statistical anarchy" over Darfur also reflects that neither the United Nations nor the United States nor any other institution is seeking to assemble a comprehensive estimate of the number of people who have died as a result of violence, disease and malnutrition since the war began, said John Prendergast, a specialist on Sudan at the International Crisis Group.

Lack of Access Muddies Death Toll in Darfur....

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Sudan: genocide has killed more than the tsunami

DR. JAN COEBERGH Parliamentary Brief, London, February 2005 (pdf)

The conflict in Darfur broke out just before the US and UK invaded Iraq. Not surprisingly, it received barely a mention. By early 2004, it was becoming apparent that Khartoum was not waging a counter-insurgency operation but war against its own civil population: there was a huge rise in the numbers of refugees, displaced people and reported deaths. During the summer of 2004, the US Congress, followed by the US State Department and then the EU parliament, declared the Sudan government's actions genocide. A UN mission is due to report in late January 2005 as to whether genocide has occurred.

There was intensive media attention for a few weeks, then other news - the school siege in Beslan - interrupted. Attention has not properly returned to Darfur since then. The tsunami disaster in South East Asia, and the Naivasha peace agreement make it less likely that it will do so.

Nevertheless, the situation is deteriorating and the scale of the tragedy in Darfur needs to be spelled out. Substantially inaccurate reporting needs correcting also.

One illustration of the horror that has been and continues to be experienced by people in Darfur is the number of dead in the conflict. The figure widely quoted between October 2004 and January 2005 is 70,000. But this figure is almost certainly wrong; the true death toll is nearer 300,000.

Sudan: genocide has killed more than the tsunami....

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Déjà Vu

In an eerie echo of the past, the American news media have drastically underplayed genocide in Sudan’s Darfur region just as they did a similar catastrophe in Rwanda a decade ago. But some individual journalists have done outstanding work.

By Sherry Ricchiardi
Sherry Ricchiardi is an AJR Senior Writer.

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Journalists and critics cite a number of factors for the scant coverage of such a harrowing and significant story, including the difficulty of gaining access to Darfur, budget constraints, the war in Iraq and a presumed lack of interest in Africa.

There's no doubt that lack of access is a major obstacle. Early in 2004, the Sudanese government created a news blackout; visas for journalists and aid workers were nearly impossible to obtain. By April, permission to enter was granted sparingly through a long, tedious process. Once in country, journalists cooled their heels in Khartoum waiting for permits to travel to Darfur, a region about the size of Texas. If they were allowed in, there were more delays waiting for documents from local authorities in towns and villages.

"You need a bucketful of patience to overcome this," Knight Ridder's Raghavan said in an e-mail message just after he had returned from a trip with African Union soldiers on duty in Darfur. "Half the battle in covering this story is getting to it."

Déjà Vu....

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Meta Progress on Darfur

Last time CJR Daily checked in on the ongoing genocide in Sudan we tackled a Reuters article for underreporting the loss of life. As we noted in that post, the press often reports that "tens of thousands" or "70,000" Sudanese have perished in that conflict.

There are two problems with reporting that number. First, it comes from a United Nations report that only records deaths from disease and hunger among those Sudanese who managed to make it into refugee camps. Second, the number often remains static for months, unchanged until the UN releases an updated report.

So far, the press has been reluctant to indicate that the number it is using is an estimate of only a portion of the death toll.

But in an article last week, the Associated Press, a repeat purveyor of the 70,000 number, changed course, highlighting the figure's shortcomings. The article asserted, "Although the commonly cited estimates of the death toll in Darfur refer to fatalities from disease and hunger, analysis of a recent U.S.-commissioned survey strongly suggests that many thousands -- at a minimum -- have been killed in violence as well."

Meta Progress on Darfur....