Are Israel's War Aims Achievable?

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Source: BBC

For all the chaos and bloodshed in the Gaza Strip, this is not Israel's final reckoning with Hamas.

It is instead by far the bloodiest battle in a sporadic, but increasingly bitter war between Israel and the Islamist Palestinian group that has controlled the Gaza Strip since June 2007.

There will be future rounds, future battles, and for this reason how this latest upsurge in violence ends matters to both sides.

Both Israel and Hamas are sending out clear messages. From Hamas it is one of defiance. They will not yield to Israel's superior force. And the rocket fire into southern Israel will continue.

Israel is signalling that this operation could go on for some time; the mobilisation of reserve soldiers and the massing of armoured and mechanised units on the border with the Gaza Strip indicates that this could turn into a ground war as well.

However the number of reservists called up - some 6,000 to 7,000 - would be insufficient for a knockout blow against Hamas, which would require nothing less than the re-occupation of the whole Gaza Strip.

Some limited ground operations may be launched. But the aim will be the same as that of the air attacks - to force Hamas to halt the rocket fire and re-establish some form of truce.

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Achievable aims?

Israel had clearly foreseen this possibility and was having none of it. It was determined to set the rules of the game and thus launched its air onslaught against Hamas on Saturday. The aim - to force Hamas to back down.

So, the fundamental question now is whether this goal is achievable. It's a matter of time as well as military force. The longer the onslaught continues, the greater the international pressure will be for Israel to halt its operations.

There is ample evidence that force alone cannot halt the rockets. A major Israeli ground incursion into the Gaza Strip in early 2008 was hailed as a relative success, but it never managed to stop the missile fire completely. The six-month long truce - brokered by Egypt - followed on in the wake of this operation.

Israeli leaders seem to have deliberated carefully ahead of this operation - a marked contrast to the way the Olmert government rushed into the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon in the summer of 2006.

But many Israeli commentators are asking if one of the main lessons of that war has really been learnt; does the Israeli leadership, having embarked upon military action, know when to stop?

Halting the fighting will involve some diplomatic spade-work drawing in a number of external actors - Egypt certainly, probably the United States and maybe even Turkey as well. It is unlikely to be tidy. Hamas will want to save face. It will not capitulate.

Much depends upon the organisation's complex internal politics, with divisions between the military and political leadership inside the Gaza Strip and between the leaders in Gaza and those residing in Syria.

This battle will end. But it will only set the scene for future engagements. Meanwhile, the situation for the population of the Gaza Strip becomes ever more precarious.

more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7803176.stm