The Gaza campaign's cautious regional unity

[Mosby]

There are no coincidences in the Middle East. Not between the Israelis and the Palestinians; not between Fatah and Hamas; and certainly not between the international community and Israel or the Palestinian Authority. What there are, this time around, are startling confluences in planning and policy that have driven a wedge in Arab unity while providing unprecedented illustrations of cooperation between Israel and some of its neighbors.

Operation Cast Lead, as Israel calls it, foreshadows far more than another temporary period of relative quiet along a border. At work is a fascinating scenario in which Israel "does the deed" - toppling Hamas - which arguably benefits the Palestinians, Egyptians, Saudis and other Arab states as much as it does Israel. (Jordan faces a special dynamic.) But there's more: in doing so, is Israel in effect clearing the way for an agreement with the Palestinians (Road Map) and with the entire Arab world (Arab - nee Saudi - Initiative)?

For months there has been speculation as to who will invade Gaza: could Mahmoud Abbas and his American-trained cadre of fighters do the job or must it be the Israelis who clearly wanted to avoid taking the plunge and risking the ever-present quagmire? As Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu Al-Gheit admonished Hamas at a Cairo news conference after the Israeli campaign began, it could not fire 300 rockets into Israel between the December 19 end of the "calm agreement" and the December 27 response without forcing Israel's hand. Israeli military planners, meanwhile, never doubted the Hamas obstinacy and certain course to conflict.

IT WAS a lesson about which Jerusalem and Cairo were very much in synch. Egypt went to the well twice and came up empty: in its attempt to negotiate a rapprochement among Palestinian factions; and in its attempt to negotiate an extension to the Israel-Hamas "calm agreement."

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