Corridors of Power / Contemplating a no-win victory

[bemildred]

A long but fascinating analysis of the current state of
the conflict. I excerpted a few tasty bits. FWIW I do not
think the current set of "peace efforts" will prove fruitful
either, things have not decayed enough yet, as is shown by
the continuing unreality of the public dialog on what a
solution looks like.

..

In the IDF, they know there is no military
solution to terror, but they are afraid to say
this out loud, and certainly reluctant to draw
the necessary conclusions from this. The IDF
continues to make the utmost effort to fulfill
the government's directives and to achieve
quiet and security for the state's citizens
under the present conditions, but deep down,
its commanders know this is mission impossible.
The more realistic among them are disheartened
by their awareness of the chasm between the
government's expectations of them and their
ability to fulfill these expectations. Even the
most honest among them are too proud to
acknowledge the uselessness of their military
actions and reject outright any suggestion that
terror is able to exert a certain influence on
the situation. They will not consent to the
idea that there is a need to reach a compromise
with the Palestinians, and they are also unable
to put aside the compulsion to emerge from this
conflict as well with a declaration of
"victory."

..

In Jerusalem, they are still dreaming about the
triumphant blow that the IDF will inflict on
the Palestinians, the one that will teach them
a lesson for generations to come and enable
Israel to dictate the conditions of an accord.
And then there are those who are laboring under
the illusion that a generous compromise can be
reached - but only after Israel achieves an
unequivocal military victory. These fantasies
are refuted by the reality. Terror continues to
strike Israel and to exact a terrible cost in
human life, morale and economic resources; it
cannot be "destroyed" (the IDF even tries to
avoid using this term). The conflict with the
Palestinians is giving rise to difficult
situations within Israeli society and adversely
affecting Israel's national standing. The hope
for a comprehensive, decisive campaign that
will put an end to indiscriminate terror does
not take into account the feasibility of such
an effort and ignores the cost in human lives
that it would entail.
..

For the most part, Ya'alon's latest statements
are a reflection of the helplessness felt by
the entire Israeli leadership. This is a group
of cowards that refuses to look reality in the
face and to make its meaning clear to the
public: Israel is facing a people that is
fighting for its freedom and refusing to
surrender to the pressure being put on it. Any
solution formulated by this group in Jerusalem,
whose objective is to continue holding onto the
territories (or most of them), is doomed to
failure because it contradicts the Zionist
nature of the state and its democratic
character.
..

But such a scenario seems a bit rosy: Arafat
demonstrated his destructive power during Abu
Mazen's brief tenure and there have been no
indications that this time he will deviate from
his customary behavior. Israel has demonstrated
its ability to contribute to an undermining of
understandings reached with the Palestinians
and there are no apparent signs of a reversal
in its approach, either, unless Ya'alon's
criticism turns out to have a longer-lasting
impact. There's a fear that the date that will
most strongly influence events is not November
4, 2003 - when Abu Ala is due to form his
government - but November 4, 2004, the date of
the next U.S. presidential election.

Haaretz

[Darranar]

1. An interesting piece...

I agree with you that the current peace process isn't going anywhere and likely won't.