Lebanon comes full circle back to the Syrian fold

[bemildred]

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Lebanon is an excellent example of how the pages of history are like the pages of a calendar: They are pulled out and fly in the wind along with the opportunities marked on them. The assumption that there will always be a Lebanese leadership that will seek to be close to Israel is similar to the assumption that there will always be a Palestinian leadership that will be forced to sign a peace agreement with Israel. But little Lebanon, lacking in strategic importance, is giving Israel the finger precisely because Mahmoud Abbas decided one day that he is tired of begging, and if Israel is interested in peace with him, tough luck.

Lebanon's position also offers a good view into Israel's new regional standing: It lacks any leverage through which it can force Beirut to sign a peace agreement. If it still holds Lebanese territory, that is insufficient leverage. At most, this would be cause for the continued arming of Hezbollah, or the threat to strike at Israeli targets.

Lebanon is also an example of a country controlled by an organization that dictates its foreign policy, just as Hamas dictates a significant part of the foreign policy of the Palestinian Authority, although it is not a partner in it. Territory in exchange for no fighting, Hezbollah says in the best-case scenario - just as Hamas offers a long-term cease-fire in exchange for withdrawal. No recognition and no negotiations.

This is also the position put forth by Syrian President Assad. In a recent interview with The New Yorker, he made it clear that there are differences between peace agreements. For the Golan Heights he is willing to make peace, which means no fighting and ending the military threat. Peace, normalization, warmth and love, on the other hand, are a different matter. When he started as president, he used to talk of normalization.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1149625.html

[madrchsod]

1. according to reports on bbc overnight....

the idf is constantly flying over lebanon`s airspace. their reporter was "suggesting" that there maybe an escalation in hostilities.

[oberliner]

2. Lebanese army fires on Israeli fighter planes: military

BEIRUT — Lebanese anti-aircraft guns opened fire on four Israeli warplanes which were violating its airspace at low altitude on Sunday, the military said.

"The army's anti-aircraft guns fired at four Israeli warplanes overflying southern Lebanon, Hasbaya, the Shouf and the Bekaa," all in southeastern Lebanon, an army statement said.

The incident came amid heightened concern in Lebanon over recent Israeli threats against Shiite militant party Hezbollah and its backer Syria.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h4MGsDNMHogxXY4ljNXe1ZxJe_LQ

[bemildred]

4. You know, what interests me about that is that Hezbollah and Syria didn't used to be friends. nt

[oberliner]

5. Haven't they been pretty friendly for the past twenty years?

Are you talking about the very early days of Hezbollah (1980s)?

[bemildred]

6. Yeah, you are right, never mind.

Brain fart.

[Alamuti Lotus]

7. No, you were quite correct the first time

Aside from having occasionally mutual enemies, Syria & Hizbu'llah are only recently on friendly terms. Syria under Hafez Assad preferred to back Amal and the various Christian factions (many of which were allied with the zionists at the same time) against the Palestinians, Lebanese leftists, & Hizbu'llah. It is only more recently, under Assad the Lesser and after the skillful manipulations of Sayyid Nasrallah in subduing Amal, that their relations have moved closer..

[bemildred]

8. It is an arguable point, and I chose not to argue.

It is true that they have not always been the good buddies they are now, which is what I was thinking of. Lebanese politics can be a bit much for someone who is used to having things as simple-minded as we do it in the USA. I think you are quite right that it is Hezbollah's political success in Lebanon which has led to the present good relations between Syria and Lebanon, and the general good-fellowship that seems to prevail for the moment in Lebanese politics, and that is a very significant change which I have remarked on myself at times. And yes, you have to give Nasrallah credit for that, and Little Assad too, like 'em or not you would be foolish to underestimate them.

[bemildred]

3. I do get the feeling that some people are hot to trot.

It seems like a stunningly stupid idea to me, but what do I know?