If Assad falls, we will see all the region's alliances unravel

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The Syrian regime, long a key player in the Middle East power play, has decided to fight back with full force. It seems determined to defeat the tidal wave of popular protest that smashed the regimes of Tunisia and Egypt, that is threatening rulers in Libya, Yemen and Bahrain, and is now challenging state power in a dozen Syrian cities.

If the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad fails to reassert its authority, and is instead brought down or merely enfeebled by a prolonged period of popular agitation, the geopolitical implications could be considerable. Syria's allies – the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Shia resistance movement Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Hamas government in Gaza – would all come under pressure. For all three, loss of Syrian support would be painful.

Israel would no doubt view such a development with great satisfaction. It has long sought to disrupt the Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah-Hamas axis, which has challenged its regional supremacy – even acquiring a certain deterrent capability, intolerable in Israel's eyes. But Israel's feelings might be tempered by fear that Assad could be replaced by an Islamist regime, even more threatening to its interests and security.

For the moment, all that can be said is that the concessions and promises made so far by Assad have been too little, too late, and have failed to satisfy the protesters. The last few days have seen a renewed surge of demonstrations that, with their swelling numbers, fury and anti-regime slogans, are beginning to seem like an insurrection. The regime has replied with live fire, curfews, massive arrests and cordons thrown around towns and villages. Some 200 protesters must have been killed.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/11/assad-falls-region-alliances-unravel

[Douglas Carpenter]

1. yes I think that is true

One cannot compare the situation of President Mubarak of Egypt with the situation with President Bashar Assad of Syria. Whereas with Mubarak the essential regime is still left in place - It is not by any means a regime change - just a change of Presidency. With Assad - his downfall would almost certainly mean the downfall of the entire regime and its apparatus of state. Then it's pretty much anyones guess what would happen next.

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2. Well, he already "fired the cabinet", but they could try the new "leader" next.

Who can say? But basically I agree with you, Syria is a much different case.

These things can go on for a long time too, once they get started, Egypt might not be over yet, for example.