NEW YORK - If the Palestinian initiative to declare independence in the UN General Assembly in September needed a shot in the arm, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu provided it. The list of no's Benjamin Netanyahu proudly and emphatically enumerated on Capitol Hill reconfirmed to the United Nations and the entire international community the motive for a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state: the ongoing freeze in the peace process and the lack of dialogue between the parties. The speech, as it was understood in New York, left no likelihood that talks would be renewed in the foreseeable future, and it may have brought the peace process to an end.
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Even if Obama wants to prove to Israel's supporters in Washington that he stands behind his own position - that a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state in September would be a mistake - Obama's ability to influence voting patterns in the UN General Assembly is limited. There have been cases when American efforts to influence a vote produced the opposite of the desired result. The most recent example is the vote on a Security Council resolution a few weeks ago against the settlements, considered a humiliation to the U.S. administration. Fourteen members of the Security Council ignored American urging and voted to condemn the settlements, pushing the United States and its veto into embarrassing isolation.
Two Western diplomats gave the same assessment, in separate conversations, of Obama's chances of influencing the outcome of the vote in the General Assembly on Palestinian statehood. The Israeli prime minister did not deal Obama "a good hand" in his speech to Congress, they both said. In other words, Netanyahu offered Obama no good reasons he could use to persuade world leaders to direct their UN envoys to vote against the resolution.
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A recent assessment in New York, based on data provided by Palestinians and other Arabs, predicted a majority - 135 of 192 members - voting in favor of Palestinian statehood. Following Netanyahu's speech, the majority could climb to more than 160.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/netanyahu-s-no-speech-could-spur-a-resounding-yes-1.364663