The Prime Minister's Office is right to point out that the PA does not have the ability to maintain order in the territories. However, nature abhors a vacuum and, as
Ms. Gimel implies on another thread, the security vacuum could be filled by the Islamic militants.
This brings up a concern, also raised by Ms. Gimel in the same post. Right now, it would seem that there will be a Palestinian state declared as the result of the unilateral action of either Arafat or Sharon. Sharon would declare one indirectly by completing his wall, dismantling settlements east of the wall and withdrawing the IDF. The wall then replaces the Green Line as Israel's
de facto border with Palestine. Meanwhile, it would be up to the Palestinians to maintain order in their country; the Palestinian state may as well be declared at this point because somebody will have to take on the responsibility of doing what a state does, including maintaining order.
Since the Islamic militants are the armed force in the territories, wouldn't it fall on them, almost by default, to maintain order? That is a very scary thought. Could they not become the real political power in Palestine very quickly? For those who thought that a PA under Arafat was bad, imagine one controlled by Sheik Yassin.
There has not been a great deal of discussion on this board or in the press, either domestic or international, about what a Palestinian state ought to look like. It has just been assumed that Arafat would be its head and he would continue his kleptocratic ways, even assuming that Palestine makes no moves against Israel. However, Arafat is in his mid-seventies and believed to be in poor health. Furthermore, there are questions about his real relevancy. If he seriously asked the militants to stop fighting, would they listen? That being the case, would the militants become a law unto themselves in a Palestinian state? Would they enforce their will on the Palestinian people, regardless of what laws any official legislative body pass or what orders a Palestinian President may give?
For my part, although I have been aware of it being a possibility at all times, I would feel betrayed if an independent Palestine became an Islamist state. The question that might be raised is would a Palestinian state brought about as a result of unilateral action as planned by Sharon quickly become an Islamist state? Would a state brought about as part of a negotiated peace deal be less likely to become an Islamist state? If Arafat were to declare unilaterally a state, what plans would be in place to assure an orderly transition of power once he passes the scene? Indeed, what plans would he have in place to control those who now seem beyond his control?