Will Sharon Leave Likud?

[DemFromMem]

Haaretz poll: Netanyahu gets 47%, Sharon 32%, in Likud runoff
By Yossi Verter, Haaretz Correspondent, and Haaretz Service

Former finance minister Benjamin Netanyahu would beat Prime Minister Ariel Sharon by a substantial margin in a race for the Likud Party leadership if the party primary were held today, according to a new poll of Likud members conducted for Haaretz by Dialogue.

The poll results indicate that the disengagement has exacted a heavy political price from Sharon: As of now, he has lost his party  his political home. He will therefore face a difficult choice after the pullout is completed: Should he risk running against Netanyahu for the party leadership or, as his advisers are recommending, split the Likud and take his supporters into a new political party?

The poll was conducted on Monday, more than 24 hours after Netanyahu resigned from the cabinet, and indicates that his move sharply increased his support within the Likud.

Every poll for the past year has shown Sharon beating Netanyahu. In recent weeks, the gap has narrowed to 8, 6 or even 4 percent, but never before has a poll shown Netanyahu beating Sharon. The results therefore suggest that Netanyahu's resignation was a carefully thought out political move, and that from his perspective, the timing proved successful.

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http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/spages/610570.html

[caitlyn]

1. This poll was taken before...

This poll was taken before MK Uzi Landau joined the race for the Likud leadership. The right wing of Likud still hasn't forgiven Netanyahu for Wye River and pulling out of part of Hebron. One Jerusalem Post analysis peace called "Netanyahu's Nightmare" speculated that Netanyahu, Landau, and possible Feiglin if he runs could split the right wing of Likud and Prime Minister Sharon could win the top spot on the party list on the first ballot.

Ariel Sharon has been brilliant in his political maneuvering. He won't leave Likud and if, at age 80, he wants another term (still unclear) I expect he'll find a way to continue to lead his party.

I, for one, am more concerned that a new leader is chosen for Labour, as in one that can win an election. Shimon Peres, at age 82, isn't going to be the man who can wrest control from Likud.

[Violet_Crumble]

2. Sharon losing grip on Likud

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is close to losing control of his own Likud party because of his determination to push ahead with the evacuation of Jewish settlers from Gaza and part of the West Bank over the next month.

An opinion poll published in yesterday's edition of Haaretz, a liberal daily newspaper, suggested that if there were a three-way leadership race this week, Mr Sharon would win only 29 per cent of the vote. against 35 per cent for His arch rival and former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu would win 35 per cent.

Mr Netanyahu's popularity with the Likud's far-right support base, always high, received a boost on Sunday when he announced he was resigning from his post as finance minister in opposition to "disengagement".

An even more right-wing candidate, former minister Uzi Landau, would win 17 per cent of the votes, the poll concluded - votes that would almost certainly not transfer to Mr Sharon if the party leadership boiled down to a two-horse race.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/middle-east-crisis/sharon-losing-grip-on-likud/2005/08/10/1123353385228.html

[caitlyn]

3. It is a mistake to...

...underestimate Ariel Sharon. He is a masterful politician and has made more unlikely maneuvers to first gain and then remain in power than Carter has little pills.

[pelsar]

4. slow down.....

after gaza......then we'll see whats going on...mainly how far gone are the extemists...they are linked and ar products of the likud no matter how they try to "explain that they arent"

[caitlyn]

5. The Extremists are not "Products of Likud"

Your message shows a lack of understanding of Israeli politics. The extremists have no use for a secular, democratic Israeli government, including Likud. They are, more often, products of National Union, Mafal (National Religious Party), or even Kach.

Likud is NOT the far right in Israeli politics. They range from center-right to right wing, but they are not monolithic and a majority of Likud MKs voted FOR disengagement.

[pelsar]

6. actually

the extremists are many times cast off from the haridi religous groups looking for a new home..i.e no political party...BUT..the leaders of the extremist are very very well connected to part of the likud....its the likud with the money and power that feeds the settlements these days...and those extremists have much use for the secular govt..mainly becuase the likud is very much a part of it without which, they would be orphans.

for instance: the hesder yeshivot that soldiers split their time between the army and learning torah....funded by the IDF and govt....protected by the likud...is the source for many of the extremists....