(PINR)Hamas Card and the Israeli Withdrawal of Gaza

[nosmokes]

_______________________________________
Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com
[e-mail]
------------------------------
19 August 2005
Today's analyst is an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government with a concentration on political Islam and the historical and security developments of the Levant, in addition to being a contributor to the Power and Interest News Report. He has degrees in public policy and American history from Penn State University.

------------------------------

The Hamas Card and the Israeli Withdrawal of Gaza

Drafted By: Jonathan Feiser
http://www.pinr.com
As the military phase of the Gaza withdrawal shifts into second gear, political leaderships on both sides are becoming inescapably invested in making the disengagement work. On the ground and within Palestinian society, the future of the region in general and Gaza in particular -- as well as the West Bank -- remains undeniably located within the agenda of Hamas.
Ensuring a Permanent Withdrawal
For reasons of expediency and public relations, in this phase most Palestinians want to prevent any form of direct Israeli military retaliation. They realize that it is in their direct interests to prove that they can manage the Israeli withdrawal as well as the implications of its aftermath. Moreover, it is in the interests of their primary supporter, Hamas, that no negative military or political attention is brought upon them at this very precise time of historical realignment.
~snip~
.
.
.
Conclusion
In the long term, the focus for Hamas will be political (indeed, every action they take from this point on will largely be political in reference to the upcoming elections). By not attacking the I.D.F. and P.A. military elements conducting the evacuation of Gaza, Hamas will gain leverage over a very critical public relations battle between themselves and the unpopular old guard establishment of Fatah and the P.A.
While biding its time, Hamas will continue its routine military tactics, techniques, and procedures of stockpiling, smuggling and proliferating weapons and ammunition. In addition, the security vacuum that will develop in the absence of I.D.F. security checkpoints will clearly enhance the opportunity for greater smuggling efforts.
While on the local level there could be sporadic clashes between Hamas "lunatic fringe" members and I.D.F. and P.A. security personnel, the overall core of Hamas will continue to restrain itself. Without a doubt, one facet of Hamas' abundant strength is found in the disenchanted majority of a younger generation of Palestinians who have spent their entire lives in refugee camps -- and therefore know, or more importantly feel, little of Arafat's vision, much less his root causes for a greater Palestinian state.
Overall, Hamas will continue its fight for the hearts and minds of the Palestinian people. In addition, the rhetoric of Abbas will mean little compared to the historically visible efforts on the ground that have continually legitimatized the vision of Hamas in contrast to the continued demonstrated helplessness and incapacity of the Palestine Liberation Organization and its political underlings.
Report Drafted By:
Jonathan Feiser
------------------------------

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of [e-mail]. All comments should be directed to [e-mail].

If you would like to unsubcribe, click here

[bemildred]

1. I can't say a guy that talks about "Arafat's vision" impresses me.

I sometimes like PINR, but this doesn't seem like their best work.
He does make some good points, esp. the vacuum that will be left behind in Gaza and potential consequences of that.

I think this link should be more permanent:

http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=349&language_id=1