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Sorry to post such a long article, but I don't want to give up my Username and Password to DU just yet. :toast:
Jobs Report Is a Problem
For Bush Ahead of Debate
October 8, 2004
The final major economic report before the presidential election was a setback to President Bush and will provide further talking points for challenger John Kerry in tonight's debate.
The government report that only 96,000 jobs were added to the employment ranks last month was bad news for the Bush campaign in at least three ways: it was only about two-thirds as large as expected, the gains actually didn't keep pace with the growth of the population and it assures that Mr. Bush will be the first president since Herbert Hoover to experience a net loss of jobs during his administration.
The unemployment rate stayed at 5.4%, down from a high of 6.3% a little over a year ago but considerably higher than the 4.2% when the president took office.
Earlier in the week, Bush political officials had leaked word that a more robust employment report was expected today. They were planning to then claim credit for a turnaround in the economy, arguing that after the post-9/11 slump the Bush tax cuts are now starting to produce a vibrant economy.
Undoubtedly in the debate tonight Mr. Bush will claim the economy has turned around. But Friday's unemployment number makes that a tougher sell. In the vice-presidential debate, Dick Cheney boasted that 1.7 million jobs have been added to nonfarm payrolls over the last year. And the hope was the September report would elevate that number.
John Kerry immediately pounced on the unemployment report, charging it was "a disappointment" and that 1.6 million private-sector jobs have been lost during the Bush presidency.
In the debate tonight, look for Mr. Kerry to note that during the Clinton years an average of 2.8 million jobs were added every year, or about 230,000 a month.
* * *
WISE MEN: George Bush has to be better prepared and stop snarling like his mother, and John Kerry has to show some personal magnanimity in tonight's second debate.
That is the advice of two seasoned political managers, Hamilton Jordan, who ran Jimmy Carter's presidential campaign, and John Sears, the former campaign manager for Ronald Reagan.
Mr. Sears believes the Democratic nominee should try to pivot and focus on domestic issues whenever possible this evening. Even with the bad news coming out of Iraq, he believes now that the president is presumably better prepared than a week ago, and that national security could backfire on Sen. Kerry.
"He has credibility on domestic issues just because he's a Democrat. He ought to make use of that on things like health care." Stylistically, he has a warning for the Massachusetts Democrat: "He may be a little overconfident after the first debate ... . He has a tendency to look like a know-it-all." And he says a major Kerry problem, namely that people really don't have a sense of who he is, is probably insoluble at this late date.
Hamilton Jordan notes that Sen. Kerry has energized his base with last week's performance, that Democrats are "standing taller." But he cautions the expectations for the Democratic nominee in tonight's debate "are very high."
His advice is twofold: "Be presidential, magnanimous and generous with praise for Bush being a 'good man from a wonderful family' while sticking it to him on the issues." Second, Mr. Jordan counsels, he needs to "connect domestic problems and human needs to the expensive war we are fighting and financing abroad."
Mr. Sears says George Bush's strategy should be simple: "He's got to be presidential ... . He at least has to show he's aware of everything he's doing." But, he notes, the president flunked that test at the Miami debate last week.
He also cautions that it might be a mistake to try to focus too much on his opponent. "Bush doesn't want to be on the defensive, like he was last time, but it's a touchy thing to be presidential and also spend most of your time attacking the other guy."
The former top Democratic campaign chief believes Mr. Bush's "handlers did him a huge disservice by exposing him during the campaign largely to pre-screened audiences of selected supporters. These "fawning fans" breed a "false confidence." That of course hasn't changed, so Mr. Jordan cracks: "Better hope that Karl Rove has packed this audience tonight."
The format, a town hall meeting with questions from the audience, really shouldn't pose much of an obstacle, Mr. Sears believes: "These are not really debates. You go into these things to say what you want to say," although he warns it's possible that average citizens could "ask a question have never heard before."
Mr. Jordan has succinct last-minute tips for both men. For John Kerry: "Be President Kerry tonight ... not Senator or candidate Kerry." For George W. Bush: "Be your father tonight, not your mother."
* * *
THE ISSUE THAT WON'T GO AWAY: Rumors, fueled by the Internet, persist of plans to reinstitute the draft. This worries some strategists from the Bush campaign, which is making a big effort to woo young voters.
Last week Vice President Cheney, spoke at length at a campaign appearance on what he called the "hogwash" that there is a "secret plan" to reinstate the draft. And Republicans successfully brought up pro-draft legislation -- authored by Rep. Charles Rangel, a New York Democrat -- so members could go on record against it.
It was rejected 402-to-2 with even Rep. Rangel voting against it. However, one of the two who voted in favor was Rep. John Murtha, the Democrats' top defense expert in the House whose military expertise was cited by Mr. Cheney in his debate against John Edwards.
And continuing to circulate on the Internet is a Feb. 11, 2003, Pentagon memorandum, from top Defense and Selective Service officials, that details the possible need for a draft. "The Secretary of Defense and Department of Defense manpower officials have stated recently that a draft will not be necessary for any foreseeable future," the issue paper states, while adding: "Yet, Defense manpower officials concede there are critical shortages of military personnel with certain special skills, such as medical personnel, linguistics, computer networks engineers, etc."
This was written more than a month before the Iraq invasion. Top military officials say the Army is stretched thin now and would hit a danger zone if any other crisis erupted.
A recent poll by MTV and nonprofit research group Circle of 18-to-29 year-old registered voters found that 78% oppose reinstituting the draft.
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