Why bin Laden will NOT be the October Surprise

[Walt Starr]

The answer is simple, fellow DUers.

As was the case with the WMDs in Iraq, this administration has no clue whatsoever where the hell bin Laden is! They are terrified of the bin Laden card being played and thus, we get smoke and mirrors about "closing in on him" etc.

Discuss...

[Goldmund]

1. I agree

if for no other reason, if the had him in the freezer, you would hear them trying to set the terrain for his "capture". The fact that they won't even bring him up is a clear hint they don't have him.

[cheshire]

2. Oh yeah, If he could have he would have dragged him up just to win.

[aden_nak]

3. If they had him, they'd have announced it right after Debate #1.

That's what you hold something like that for, to release immediately following an embarrassing defeat by Bush. That way they could blow past his debate performance, and he could rub it in Kerry's face that they'd captured bin Laden on his watch.

So the fact that we haven't already seen him means he is still holed up in a cave somewhere.

[Irishladdie]

4. I agree...

You can't hide the most wanted Terrorist in the World. They would Parade him around like Saddam. The minute they got him they would of had him all over TV.

Plus Bush would of slipped and shown OBL's cane to White HOuse guests!!

I can picture it now SH gun on *'s hip and OBL's cane in his hand!!

[Kikosexy2]

8. if not...

OBL's capture, then next scenario would be:
A. another terrorist attack
B. assassination attempt on Bush and/or Cheney
C. lots of election malfunctions in Ohio, CO, AZ, NM and/or Fla. creating a bigger election mess than Fla. 2000--or putting in short terms: stealing the election!
D. All of the above.

anything else?

[unfrigginreal]

5. Nah, I still think they'll 'find' him sometime this month

and even if I didn't I'm going to take the Teresa approach.

[robbedvoter]

6. Uh...check my sig!

[theorist]

7. Why would Al Qaeda be mum about his capture?

Al Jazeera would be playing his disappearance up, if he were missing. I'm not saying they are pro-bin Laden, but they are pro-Arab viewership. We would have heard about his capture (or him being surrounded) within a month of it happening.

Recall that UBL wasn't mentioned in a single speech at the RNC. Don't you think Rove would have been priming us for this?

Finally, they would have played this trump card by now. UBL is the holy grail. It is possible that the military does have UBL in its sights, but are refusing to move in before the election, realizing that a candidate could use it for political purposes.

I'm still envisioning UBL's capture on a split screen during Kerry's inauguration. It does sound like a repub thing to do, but it would put the whole country behind its new president.

[liberal N proud]

9. If they wanted to they could have captured him by now

How hard is it to find a man of that size who requires dialysis?

[Walt Starr]

10. My theory is he left the area before the assault

He's nowhere near Pakistan/Afghanistan or the Hindu Kush region.,

He's comfortably sitting in Iran, saudi Arabia, or some other Al-Queda friendly region.