My analysis is that this election will be decided by Ohio

[louis c]

At the beginning of this campaign, my feeling was that Kerry's election would be decided by the outcome in Ohio.

I want to use my polling data which comes from sources Rasmussen, Zogby, and Gallup. I will add my own logic (please indulge me), and see if you get the same felling.

We all know the predictable states, so there is no need to list them here. For the purpose of this exercise, NJ, MD, and NH are safe Kerry, and Ark, Arz, and WV are safe Bush.

First, let me evaluate Florida. I would love for Kerry to win Florida, believe me. However, looking at the rise in Bush's job approval there, I have to believe the Hurricanes, the government's response, and the pile of money going there has helped his image. The fact that either he, his brother, or some surrogate was on TV and radio praising him in this crisis couldn't have hurt either. I put Florida for Bush, although there's a way to go.

Pennsylvania is Kerry. Teresa's presence in Pittsburgh, as well as the strong support by a powerful Democratic machine will most certainly keep Pennsylvania "Blue".

Minnesota is Kerry. There is no way that a state that Dukakis carried will be lost by Kerry this year. The polls here are almost to the point of a certain victory.

Iowa is Kerry for the same reason as Minn, only more so.

Michigan is Kerry. I don't even know why this would be a toss-up, come to think of it.

I'm afraid Colorado will be Bush. It seems too much to hope for a win here. I know, Salazar might carry us home with the Hispanic vote. In the end, it just seems to far to the right.

Wisconsin will be Bush. I'm less certain on this one than even Florida, but the polling keeps looking bad for us here. It will be close, but in the end these folks just seem not to get it.

Nevada I really believe will be Kerry. I think the local issue surrounding Yucca Flat, and Bush's lie to them in 2000 concerning the Waste stored there will do him in. The strong Union base in Las Vegas is quite a big deal in a small state, also.

So, let me give you an electoral tally. Bush 259 to Kerry 259. That's right, exactly even with one state to go.

Ohio. 20 Electoral Votes. One quarter of all jobs lost under Bush are in Ohio. Amazing. Cleveland is ranked as the poorest city in all of America. Almost all the polling data has this state even. There is a huge Union Base, registration for Democrats is higher here than almost anywhere else. Ohio.

Whichever candidate wins Ohio will be the next President of the United States.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. I disagree about WI and FL

amazingly, I think Pennsylvania will be close but with Kerry pulling it out.
Ohio will also be very close.

[NinetySix]

2. I disagree about WI and NV

Wisconsin has been blue since at least 1992. I don't think it'll choose this crucial point in time to start going red; there's too much at stake in this election, and I think a motivated base there will turn out the vote. Bush will be lucky to come within 3 points here.

Nevada went blue for Clinton (jeez, what states didn't), but has otherwise been traditionally red. I don't even think the Yucca Mountain issue there will be enough to drive it into the blue column, although I concede it's possible.

I think the surprise state this year may well be Missouri. I'm not saying i think it will go blue, but if I had to pick a darkhorse, MO would be it.


edit:sp

[StevenD]

17. Nevada will go Blue!

As a recent resident of Nevada (moved in Jan from CA) I am one of thousands of newly registered voters. For the first time history, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans here.

I have a Kerry campaign worker from Boston living in my guest room who works 16 hours a day. He reports that hundreds of California volunteers are manning the phones and walking the neighborhoods (weekends). Yucca mountain should help us. Also there is a minimum wage initiative on the ballot that should help produce higher turnout. Nevada will go blue because of the ground war in place here.

[NinetySix]

27. Make sure you're really registered.

>snip<

October 12, 2004

Voter Registrations Possibly Trashed

George Knapp KLAS TV


Employees of a private voter registration company allege that hundreds, perhaps thousands of voters who may think they are registered will be rudely surprised on election day. The company claims hundreds of registration forms were thrown in the trash.

Anyone who has recently registered or re-registered to vote outside a mall or grocery store or even government building may be affected.

The I-Team has obtained information about an alleged widespread pattern of potential registration fraud aimed at democrats. Thee focus of the story is a private registration company called Voters Outreach of America, AKA America Votes.

The out-of-state firm has been in Las Vegas for the past few months, registering voters. It employed up to 300 part-time workers and collected hundreds of registrations per day, but former employees of the company say that Voters Outreach of America only wanted Republican registrations.

Two former workers say they personally witnessed company supervisors rip up and trash registration forms signed by Democrats.

"We caught her taking Democrats out of my pile, handed them to her assistant and he ripped them up right in front of us. I grabbed some of them out of the garbage and she tells her assisatnt to get those from me," said Eric Russell, former Voters Outreach employee.

http://www.klas-tv.com/Global/story.asp?S=2421595&nav=168XRvNe

[RummyTheDummy]

3. I disagree on Wisconsin

But unfortunately you make some good points regarding Florida.

[pabloseb]

4. Mostly agree but there's hope in Wisconsin :)

A batch of new state polls in the Chicago Tribune has Kerry up 3 pts in Wisconsin and 4 in Ohio. Also 2 pts up in MN and 2 pts down in IA.

I'm not so sure Kerry will carry Nevada. But if he does carry WI and OH that won't matter.

One important thing about this new poll is that it considers likely votes to all who declare that they're registered to vote and 100% sure that they will vote... so, it doesn't look at past voting behaviour, which means it represents the new voters more accurately than most other polls.

By the way, only two times in US history has the presidential winner lost Ohio.

[newyawker99]

34. Hi pabloseb!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Zynx]

5. You are dead wrong about Wisconsin.

Kerry is beginning to pull ahead here. There were bad polls in 2000 as well that showed us far behind and we won the state.

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[deckerd]

6. Kerry must compete in ARk and WV

Especially if he hopes to win Ohio. If he can't even come close enough
to compete in WV he will not win Ohio. Likewise, if he can't even come
close enough to compete in Arkansas he'll certainly not win FL. That's
the election right there.

Most importantly, writing off ARK and WV consigns him to electoral defeat across the board outside of the Gore states + NH, OH and NV.

WV and ARk set the tone for the South and the heartland states like MO and OH.
Kerry must at least compete amongst moderate rural voters in heartland states like MO, ARk and WV if he intends to win the northern midwest states that are close.

This "writing off the border states" strategy which has been mandated
by Kerry's consultants, consigns Kerry to a narrow, MANDATE-LESS
victory at best. Dems will NEVER win if they refuse to think big and
stick their necks out.

[delhurgo]

7. I think thats probably true, although there is a way for Kerry to win

without either Ohio or Florida - but I agree that that would be very difficult. He'd have to win Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, etc... He'd sort of have to draw an inside straight.

I must say in realizing he almost has to win one or the other of Ohio or Florida does not make me very confident. All the polls up to now show him behind in both states by around 4 points, or more. Florida almost seems out of reach. Just today I saw the first poll I've seen, in the Chicago Tribune, that shows Kerry actually ahead in Ohio - by I believe about 3 points. It was done between October 1 and 4 though.

I just hope the ground troops are ready and well-organized to GOTV there. Thats probably what'll make the difference.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/elections/chi-041012poll-story,1,7513939.story?coll=chi-news-hed

[WI_DEM]

8. Very astute analysis

I wish I could say that Wisconsin will go blue for sure, but as you note most polls even before the conventions have had Bush with a small edge. However, we can still pull it off--if turnout is high. Feingold's presence on the ballot will guarantee that the left will turn out. Nader/Cobb will not get anything near what the progressive third parties got last time. It is close here which is why Bush is repeatedly coming and Kerry will also be here soon for rallies in Milwaukee, Sheboygan and Appleton. Right now I would call Wisconsin a toss up with maybe a slight Bush edge at this point.

I'm feeling more confident about Iowa and Minnesota staying Dem. I also think we have a shot at Colorado. A couple of weeks ago three polls had the race their neck and neck. Kerry did three days of debate prep there. It is Kerry's birth state, which might account for something. Salazar is a strong senate candidate and turnout among latinos is bound to be higher than usual. I think Colorado can be won. If so, it would make up for losing Wisconsin, since I think both have ten electoral votes.

I agree about Florida seeming to be moving away--but as you note it is still close enough that Kerry could come back.

I agree with you that of all the red states of '00 NH is most likely to fall to Kerry. I think you are also correct that Nevada is the second most likely to do so.

I honestly think that Kerry will win Pennsylvania by more than Gore did--he has recently opened up leads from 3-7 points in several polls.

[rockymountaindem]

42. I really don't think Colorado will go blue this time.

I think our best hope there is to pass the division of electoral votes, and the move back to the current system as it becomes more solidly Democratic.

It's getting better in Colorado, but for those of you who have any kind of strategy involving Kerry winning Colorado, it's time to re-work your strategy.

[kath]

9. Oh, man, I wish we could get rid of the goddam bleepity-bleep Electoral

College.

Then everyone's vote would count the same.

[T Town Jake]

10. Good analysis. I agree with you - Ohio is the key. (n/t)

[roseBudd]

40. Vanessa Kerry was at Cincinnati Kerry headquarters this past Sunday

and that is what she told us

[pabloseb]

11. Don't discount Florida

Florida is not lost. The effect of the hurricans will erode over time. Remember that before the conventions the election was very close there, and most current polls are roughly at the same level than the pre-convention polls. Plus, the state is so big and heterogeneous that it's difficult to poll accurately, so as long as the difference is no more than 5 points, you don't really know what the real situation is (of course, the same would be true if Kerry was 5 pts up).

The fact of the matter is, at this point anything can happen. Hopefully tomorrow's debate will produce a small but decisive shift in Kerry's favor...

[djack23]

12. It All comes down to this!!!

In the swing state of Ohio, there is a very swing region
called western Ohio, and in western Ohio there is a very swing
county called Warren County, where there is a very swinging
town called Franklin, where there is a very swing neighborhood
called Wheaton, where there is a very swing block called 1300
block of 6th St, where there is a very swing apartment called
Homewood Tower, where there is a very swing apartment 301,
where there is a very swing voter who still needs to know if
Bush wears boxers or briefs. 

[NinetySix]

16. Boxers or briefs?

Depends.

[Thrill]

13. Not me

I think Kerry win Fl by landslide. I think the last election pissed every black american in FL off. They're all going to vote. See ya Chimpy

[fujiyama]

14. Recent polls

are showing encouraging signs in WI. It has narrowed considerably, and in some cases giving Kerry a lead. A Chicago Tribune poll had Kerry leading by 3 or 4 points. The same set of polls had Kerry trailing by two in IA, though I'm guessing that was within the MoE...all in all, I think IA and WI are definetely toss ups.

I think all four midwestern states will be extremely close.

I'm not as optimistic regarding NV though. It's definetely more winnable than AZ, but I think it will still be difficult...same thing regarding CO. Of the four southwestern states, I'm most confident about NM. I think Richardson will deliver it...but it was EXTREMELY close last time. Gore won it by less than 400 votes.

[tedoll78]

15. Hmm.. pretty close to my predictions.

Wisconsin is looking better. A new poll out shows Kerry with a 4% lead now, and that's with Nader in the equation.

Florida looks as though it is leaning more and more for Bush. I agree with you on this one, sadly.

Ohio is looking more and more like Kerry. (isn't it funny.. when Kerry is up in Florida, he's down in Ohio.. and vice-versa!)

Colorado is looking like a toss-up. I really have no clue. And it looks as though the referendum will be passing, which will give Kerry at least another 4EVs (assuming that no court challenge knocks it down).

New Hampshire looks like it'll flip. I'm barely putting it into the Kerry column. Just like Iowa.

Minnesota will be ours. Narrowly, but ours.

Pennsylvania is coming home to the blue column, as has Michigan. I don't know why I've fretted so much over those two.

West Virginia seems to have that ol' Kentucky redneck magic rubbin'-off on it. Such a shame.

Arkansas looks really tight. If I had to bet, I'd bet Bush.

...

So, given all of this, and given the weird "Kerry-is-up-in-either-Florida-or-Ohio" trend, it looks pretty good.

[Cats Against Frist]

19. Virginia

I've read that a couple of polls show Kerry only 2 pts. down. I predict that on election night, if we win Virginia, we've won the whole shebang. If we lose Pennsylvania, I think we're toast.

I am nervous, yet confident.

[deckerd]

23. Huh? Kerry's not been up in Ohio since July

Bush has averaged 50% of the vote or more in polls. Kerry has never,
at any point, broken 50% in Ohio.

When y'all wrote off Missouri and Arkansas as "not needed" was when
the Kerry camp put us in this predicament.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Florida or Ohio

The inside straight, as someone above correctly labeled it, of Kerry winning minus either of the two biggies will not happen. The odds of sweeping the other vital states is at least 10X more unlikely than winning Ohio or Florida or both.

I trust the American Research Group polls and have scanned them since May. Bush's largest lead in ARG polls since May is 1 point in Florida and 2 points in Ohio. Currently, Kerry is ahead 1 point in Ohio and 2 in Florida.

I like the way ARG varies its samples by state. The most recent Florida poll, for example, contains 4% more Democrats than Republicans while their poll in Ohio is evenly divided among Democrats and Republicans. Those are consistent with the likely partisan breakdown in each state on November 2.

I stil believe Florida is slightly more likely for Kerry than Ohio. There are generally 2-3 points more undecideds in Florida than Ohio, and they figure to break 2/3 or thereabouts toward Kerry as the challenger. Plus, I can't disregard the consistent trend toward Democrats in Florida in each presidential cycle since '92, in comparison to the national average. It is now a 50/50 state. Ohio has not demonstrated a similar shift, always 2-4 points more GOP than the national popular vote margin.

[goodwalt]

21. I think voter turnout new voters gets us both

Ohio has been reporting a massive surge in new voter registration- that can't be the result of "massive" support for the war or the booming economy. As for Florida, I'm not buying into gratitutde for FEMA money as any sort of legitimate incentive for Repugs to get out the vote. Rightly or wrongly, federal assistance is regarded by American's as an entitlement when a disaster strikes. Two weeks ago I was reading about how pissed many Floridians were that the assistance response was slow. If anything, I think this latest round of hurricanes will suppress Repug turnout. Weren't red counties the hardest hit by the storms? Nothing like chaos and living out of tents to make people want to get out and vote.

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[gatorboy]

38. You wouldn't happen to be a Freeper in disguise...

Would you?

http://forums.jolt.co.uk/archive/index.php/t-318923.html

[deckerd]

24. Ark + NH is NOT an "inside straight"... thanks, please play again

And Kerry has no chance in FL if he can't even compete in MO or Ark.

[Awsi Dooger]

47. Hello genius

You are apparently conceding every Gore state to Kerry then tossing in Arkansas plus New Hampshire to put us over the top. That is pure mathematical ignorance, but oft repeated on DU. Let me repeat, inside straight.

The odds Kerry will sweep Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Oregon (yes, Oregon), New Hampshire, while again losing Florida and Ohio are pure looney tune. Literally 20+/1 minimum. Apparently mirrors are very popular on DU. We can only see something that happened before.

Please refrain from wagering. You have no clue.

[Bleacher Creature]

20. As an aside

What the hell is wrong with West Virginia. Are guns and religion so damn important to those people that they would be willing to vote against their own economic self-interest?

It's pathetic.

[LibDemAlways]

22. That goes for every "red" state -

morons voting against their own self-interest. What percentage of the folks in Mississippi or Alabama are in the top 1% and are voting to keep their tax cuts? I'd be willing to bet not many. Most of the voters who will deliver electoral votes to the chimp are ordinary citizens struggling to get by -- the type of person he and Cheney would gladly ship off to Iraq to die for Halliburton and PNAC, but who they'd begrudge a decent minimum wage and health care here at home.

In a sane America, the chimp wouldn't win a single state.

[tsuki]

26. But they don't see it that way...

they feel they would be voting against their own self-interest because this is America and when they get there--to the top--they would have to pay too much income tax.

After all, this is America and if you listen to the Repubs, everyone can be a Halliburton.

[tsuki]

25. Florida

You are correct about the pile of money here. We are amazed. After Opal (1995), FEMA passed out ice, water and MREs in my area five days after Opal hit. Banks and business passed out ice and water before that. The response from surrounding utilities was, as always, phenomenal.

This year, after Ivan, FEMA is passing out food stamps ($459.00 per family of four), paying for generators (even though we had power after four days), paying for evacuation costs, lost wages, and just about everything in between.

There are families that need help, but being just a tad cynical, I can't help but wonder if we'd be getting all this largess if the year were 2005.

Maybe more than a tad.

[demokatgurrl]

31. HELL will freeze over before we get Florida-

not saying Kerry can't win the votes- but Jeb won't allow it. If it comes down to Florida they'll steal it again for sure, count on it. We should just eliminate Florida from any predictions.

[LuminousX]

28. While I don't agree on your full analysis, I do agree Ohio is the key

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Eurobabe]

35. not

kerry will take both.

[gatorboy]

36. Why is it that every post you make is negative?

What's your point in being here?

[Lerkfish]

43. haven't figured it out yet? I have.

:)

[gatorboy]

46. Heh! I figured it out.

I'm just surprised he made it so obvious! :D

[Charles19]

33. NV will be Bush, WI will be Kerry

I am from Wisconsin and was just there, every street I went on was covered with Kerry signs. Probably saw 9 Kerry signs in yards for every 1 Bush sign. If you poll the Milwaukee suburbs you can get skewed Bush results but a fair poll across the state will likely show that Kerry has a lead there.

People there like a non-interventionist foreign policy, cheap gas, and progressive thinkers, all not Bush's strong points.

NV will not go Kerry.

I think Florida will still go Kerry, I think the people there getting ripped off in 2000 will get out a highly motivated democratic force of voters and be enough to take it.

I think Kerry will not win Ohio but will still win the election.

[NOWMDNOGWB]

37. From CLEVELAND

newbie from cleveland...havn"t voted in 20 yrs ..this year I've been devoting myself to get the schrub out,convincing my friends to do the same non of us use to care about voting.The anger is strong here,I don't see bush winning Ohio.Just the last few days I've seen 18-2 bumper stickers for kerry in western Cleveland and eastern Lorain.I think this is far and away the best democratic site I've seen,and I'll leave the postings for the professionals

[cmd]

44. Welcome to DU

I'm very glad you are voting this year.

[roseBudd]

39. Urban area Ohio DUers contact me. I have GOTV ideas for

the home stretch that are applicable to the bigger cities.

[On the Road]

41. I Agree with Everything Except Wisconsin

and I believe that still leaves the election up to Ohio.

FL would be nice, but it means fighting city hall.

[lancdem]

45. I think Wisconsin is the most likely blue state Kerry could lose

but a new Tribune poll there has him up 3, and that CNN poll that ahowed him trailing by 3 oversampled Republicans. So i'm more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago.