Polls be damned, they're all over the freaking place, and the questions they ask are sometimes downright weird.
BUT - there is one indicator that has consistantly proven to be accurate in Presidential elections - likeability.
"Since 1960, the Gallup organization has conducted its "Personality Factor Poll" before every presidential election. The only consistent prognosticator of the final election results: the likeability factor."http://resources.mediasource.com/articles_5_b3.asp?pID=eprUp until the debates, Bush had the likeability edge. Since then, with Kerry's two wins, we;ve all been agreeing that Kerry came off looking much more Presidential, intelligent, and formidable. But OOPS, we missed something!
According to several mostly reliable sources -
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002431.htmlhttp://www.townhall.com/columnists/matttowery/mt20040601.shtmlhttp://living.news.designerz.com/kerry-beats-bush-on-likeability-in-new-survey.htmlhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1324492,00.htmlhttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6159637/site/newsweek/ -recent polls show that Kerry has taken the lead over Bush in the "who is more likeable" category.
WHAT?
The recovered alcoholic you'd most like to have a beer with is less likeable than that old hang dog Kerry? (In fact, the MSNBC article linked to above shows Kerry 6% ahead of Bush on likeability, and that number is all the more impressive when you realize that before the debates, Bush had a similar lead over Kerry. In other words, Kerry's likeability has raised in the double digits because of the debates, while Bush's has dropped by a similar amount)
Oh yes, besides "likeability," there was one other factor that most accurately predicted the Presidential election outcome in 10 of the last 13 elections -
Height.
And the only thing that ever trumped height was...thats right - likeability!
So who do the voters think is the taller candidate? I'll bet we don't
need a poll for that question. :)