Kerry is leading by 396 points in the Dow Jones poll

[Awsi Dooger]

I remember this trend from 2000 and kept it in my election notes. It was mentioned, almost reluctantly, by a rightwing CNBC market analyst a few weeks ago:

* Stock market performance in the precise two month period before a presidential election is an extremely reliable predictor of the outcome. If the market gains, the party in power will retain the presidency. A downward trend favors the party that is out of the White House.

Supposedly, this simple system has worked 15 of the last 16 elections! At least it makes some sense, unlike that inane Washington Redskin angle we'll hear repeatedly the week before the election.

I have never verified this stat as fact. My notes prior to 2000 say 14 of 15, but I got it from a similar source, cable TV stock market specialists. They were downright giddy prior to November 2000, with the market aiming downward and therefore favoring Bush. My only problem embracing the 15 of 16 figure is it requires an acceptance of Bush as the 2000 winner.

The key number this year is 10,290, according to the CNBC analyst. That must have been the Dow figure on September 2. Thursday's triple digit plunge puts the market at 9894, or a bearish 396 point bulge in favor of John Kerry.

[DemBones DemBones]

1. Ah, this explains why Bush* and Cheney were so busy talking down the

economy in the fall of 2000. Remember their gleeful predictions of a coming recession? (The one they now claim to have "inherited.")