Interesting 2000 Poll Analysis - Relax and Read This

[ALago1]

Check out this page:

http://www.aapor.org/default.asp?ID=39&page=news_and_issues/aapor_newsletter_detail

One of the problems of the polls in 2000 as described in this analysis was the failure of them to capture the very late Democratic surge - thus suggesting that polls are rarely skewed to the Democrat.

Also, this page gives an interesting rank to the accuracies of each polling company. Surprsingly Fox was tied for first with Harris. CBS was 4th and Zogby was 5th.

The lesson here? Relax. Seriously. Relax. Polls in a race shaping up to be this close are notorious for underestimating the Dems ground game. That is where we will win.

What has now become cliche should be our mantra: The only poll that matters is Nov. 2.

Thanks :)

[Stuckinthebush]

1. While I agree with you

I don't think anyone should relax.

This is not the time to relax and chant "We Win!"

Bush and Rove are the nastiest, most evil jerks ever to sit in the White House. They will do whatever it takes to win this thing, including lying about Kerry. What do they have to lose?

No...it is not time to relax. It is time to get very nervous and make sure we get all Dems to the polls and get all newly registered voters out as well.

[fugop]

4. No relaxing but ...

Right, no relaxing, but I do believe Democrats come home in the end. Part of the curse of being thinking people is that we do tend to evaluate right up until the end. But I think there will be a last-minute surge toward Kerry of not just the Dems coming home, but I think, as history as shown, that the undecideds will break for Kerry as well.

Of course, I"m still leery of any sudden turns of events ("LOOK! PEACE IN IRAQ! REALLY! PAY NO ATTENTION TO ALL EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY!"), but without something big, I think the surge will all go Kerry in the end.

[ALago1]

8. Hi Stuckin!

My relax comment was in no way implying that we should not work and volunteer, etc.

It was just a response to all the nailbiting I saw while searching some posts this morning.

People are on the brink of freaking out because of one poll that may very well be an outlier. And even if it isn't, the methodology may not be very good.

So yes, work, work, work! But keep your cool, relax, and don't freak yourself out.

[jgardner]

2. Here's what I think:

1) The polls are all wrong because they don't count cell phone users (like me and my husband), people who haven't voted in the past, or people who are newly registered. We've heard repeatedly that people are registering in record numbers, and I believe that most of them have been incited to do so because they're disgusted by Bush. Same with people who didn't vote in the past, but will be voting this year.

2) Of the people who voted in 2000, I think that there are MANY more Bush voters who have moved towards Kerry than Gore voters who have moved towards Bush. People in general are angry about the state of our country and our place in the world (or, at least that's the sense I've gotten from co-workers and acquaintances).

I really think that everyone will be very surprised on November 2, when each state turns blue one by one. The anchors will be falling off their seats, because they won't know how they can spin it to satisfy their corporate daddies. We will take our country back. Kerry will win in a LANDSLIDE!

[DenaliDemocrat]

5. It could be an outlier

it happens

[Lilli]

7. jgardner - Makes sense to me :)

"...Of the people who voted in 2000, I think that there are MANY more Bush voters who have moved towards Kerry than Gore voters who have moved towards Bush. People in general are angry about the state of our country and our place in the world..."

Matthews was taking to a man on Hardball yesterday that said his primary concerns were Iraq and guns. Matthews said something like...ahhh so you're voting Republican then. :) My take on the guys response that he was a Rep....but he wanted OUT of Iraq, and wouldnt be voting party lines. I think there is going to be a LOT of that kind of movement.

[Lilli]

3. "The only poll that matters is Nov. 2. "

Bush said that too, yesterday.
Its the one thing I could finally agree with him on. :)

[Killarney]

6. All that matters is TURNOUT!